Geothermal energy is one of the most viable sources of renewable heat. However, the potential risk of induced seismicity associated with geothermal operations may slow down the growth of the geothermal sector. Previous research has led to significant progress in understanding fluid-injection-induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs. However, an in-depth assessment of thermal effects on the seismic risk was generally considered to be of secondary importance. This study aims to investigate the relative influence of temperature and key geological and operational parameters on the slip tendency of pre-existing faults. This is done through coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical simulations of the injection and production processes in synthetic geothermal reservoir models of the most utilized and potentially exploitable Dutch geothermal reservoir formations: Slochteren sandstone, Delft sandstone and Dinantian limestone.

In our study, changes in the slip tendency of a fault can largely be attributed to thermo-elastic effects, which confirms the findings of recent studies linking thermal stresses to induced seismicity. While the direct pore pressure effect on slip tendency tends to dominate over the early phase of the operations, once pore pressure equilibrium is established in a doublet system, it is the additional stress change associated with the growing cold-water front around the injection well that has the greatest influence. Therefore, the most significant increase in the slip tendency was observed when this low-temperature front reached the fault zone. The distance between an injection well and a pre-existing fault thus plays a pivotal role in determining the mechanical stability of a fault. A careful selection of a suitable target formation together with an appropriate planning of the operational parameters is also crucial to mitigate the risk of induced seismicity. Besides the well-known relevance of the in situ stress field and local fault geometry, rock-mechanical properties and operation conditions exert a major influence on induced stress changes and therefore on the fault (re)activation potential during geothermal operations.

From dynamic rupture simulations, we reveal under which conditions a rupture in the Groningen gas field stops along fault dip or along fault strike after it starts on a fault in the reservoir. The simulations focus on the capabilities of fault plane irregularities to arrest ruptures. Such irregularities can be recognised in sandstone outcrops. Fault planes in the Groningen field, extracted from the 3D seismic data by seismic attribute extraction methods, show similar irregularities. A detailed surface of a major fault plane in the field indicates that steps and jogs of tenths of metres are possible. Although these irregularities are close to seismic resolution and could be partially artificial, we investigated their effect on rupture arrest.

For typical current stresses in the Groningen field, jogs and steps of this length scale are found to be remarkably effective to stop ruptures in the reservoir. Also, a significant increase in the fault dip along fault strike can stop these ruptures but a kink in the fault under a constant fault dip not.

Including non-planar fault features and pressure diffusion in the Carboniferous, the simulations in this paper follow trends of previous simulations in the literature using 2D planar faults. In particular, the horizontal stress in this formation and the strength of the Carboniferous fault zone are important for rupture propagation. If the fault would have been reactivated in the Neogene or Quaternary and poorly healed in clay-rich parts, rupture propagation into the Carboniferous can only be prevented by jogs of sufficient size and lateral continuity under the present estimate of the horizontal field stress.

The utilisation of geothermal energy in the Netherlands is primarily focused on deep sedimentary aquifers, which are often intersected by major faults. Geothermal operations (i.e. fluid production and injection) may alter the effective stress state along these faults and trigger induced seismic events. Pore pressure perturbations have been generally considered the main driver of injection-induced seismicity. However, thermal stresses caused by temperature gradients between the re-injected cold fluid and the reservoir rock may also contribute to the triggering of earthquakes in geothermal reservoirs. While existing geothermal power plants operating in sandstone reservoirs did not produce any major induced seismicity, it is a matter of debate whether a reduction in the temperature of the re-injected fluid could increase the seismic hazard potential. In this study, we applied modified Gutenberg–Richter statistics based on frictional Coulomb stress variations implemented in a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model to estimate the seismic hazard caused by the operation of a geothermal doublet. We conducted a systematic parametric study to assess and rank the impact of different intrinsic (geological) and extrinsic (operational) parameters on the induced seismic hazard potential. We identified a competing mechanism between induced variations in pore pressure and thermal stress within the reservoir in controlling induced seismicity. We found that stress changes induced by pore pressure variations are the main cause of seismic hazard, although thermally induced stresses also contribute significantly. The results indicate that by optimising the operational parameters it is possible to increase production efficiency while maintaining a long-term control over the fluid injection-induced seismicity.

We perform statistical analyses on spatiotemporal patterns in the magnitude distribution of induced earthquakes in the Groningen natural gas field. The seismic catalogue contains 336 earthquakes with (local) magnitudes above $1.45$ , observed in the period between 1 January 1995 and 1 January 2022. An exploratory moving-window analysis of maximum-likelihood b-values in both time and space does not reveal any significant variation in time, but does reveal a spatial variation that exceeds the $0.05$ significance level.

In search for improved understanding of the observed spatial variations in physical terms we test five physical reservoir properties as possible b-value predictors. The predictors include two static (spatial, time-independent) properties: the reservoir layer thickness, and the topographic gradient (a measure of the degree of faulting intensity in the reservoir); and three dynamic (spatiotemporal, time-dependent) properties: the pressure drop due to gas extraction, the resulting reservoir compaction, and a measure for the resulting induced stress. The latter property is the one that is currently used in the seismic source models that feed into the state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment.

We assess the predictive capabilities of the five properties by statistical evaluation of both moving window analysis, and maximum-likelihood parameter estimation for a number of simple functional forms that express the b-value as a function of the predictor. We find significant linear trends of the b-value for both topographic gradient and induced stress, but even more pronouncedly for reservoir thickness. Also for the moving window analysis and the step function fit, the reservoir thickness provides the most significant results.

We conclude that reservoir thickness is a strong predictor for spatial b-value variations in the Groningen field. We propose to develop a forecasting model for Groningen magnitude distributions conditioned on reservoir thickness, to be used alongside, or as a replacement, for the current models conditioned on induced stress.

Two closely spaced geothermal doublets were operated in the Californië geothermal field near Venlo, the Netherlands. The geothermal wells target the Dinantian Zeeland formation below 2 km depth. For several years, hot fluid was produced from the Tegelen fault, a regional fault in the Roer Valley rift system, until a felt M1.7 earthquake led to the suspension of geothermal activities. The Californië showcase provides a rare opportunity to retrospectively evaluate the assessment and the management of induced seismicity risks for a geothermal project. A seismic hazard assessment was conducted at several stages of the project, and seismicity was continuously monitored with a local station network.

In this paper, we report on the characteristics of the induced seismicity and evaluate the findings of the seismic hazard assessments conducted prior to the earthquakes. Seismic hazard assessments were based on numerical simulations of subsurface stress changes associated with geothermal operations. A geomechanical analysis indicated that the mapped faults in the subsurface are likely to be critically stressed. The largest hazard was inferred to result from thermo-elastic stresses, originating from cold water injection close to the Tegelen fault.

Subsequent earthquakes predominantly occurred near a production well after stopping or reducing production. We attributed this observation to a thermo-elastic stress load caused by cold water injection close to the Tegelen fault, combined with a counter-acting stabilisation of the fault due to pressure depletion during production. This mechanism was consistent with the dominating mechanism considered in the preceeding seismic hazard assessments. Although geothermal operations have not resumed yet, the geomechanical analysis indicates that re-locating one of the injection wells further away from the Tegelen fault could provide an efficient measure for mitigating induced seismicity risks at Californië.

We reanalysed the induced seismicity data from the Groningen gas reservoir. We used the well-maintained induced event catalogue of the KNMI. The distributions of seismic moments and interevent times show a power law behaviour over several decades, and we find that upon increasing the magnitude threshold, these distributions remained scale-invariant. Because of this scale-invariance, we can put a constraint on the average loading of the elastic energy within the reservoir, which upon reaching a critical value gives rise to the seismic events. We find that the elastic energy roughly increases proportional to time. We also propose a new machine learning approach for declustering the seismic events, separating correlated from independent events. We find that only few events are truly independent, i.e. exponentially distributed over time. There are also few aftershocks following an Omori-type power law. The bulk of events presents a Gamma distribution for interevent times. This gives us an indication that the rigidity in the reservoir is high, but whether this results in overall correlated events should be settled with physics-based arguments rather than statistical ones.

We present an overview of induced seismicity due to subsurface engineering in the Netherlands. Our overview includes events induced by gas extraction, underground gas storage, geothermal heat extraction, salt solution mining and post-mining water ingress. Compared to natural seismicity, induced events are usually small (magnitudes ≤ 4.0). However, due to the soft topsoils in combination with shallow hypocentres, in the Netherlands events exceeding magnitude 1.5–2.0 may be felt by the public. These events can potentially damage houses and infrastructure, and undermine public acceptance. Felt events were induced by gas production in the north of the Netherlands and by post-mining water ingress in the south-east. Notorious examples are the earthquakes induced by gas production from the large Groningen gas field with magnitudes up to 3.6. Here, extensive non-structural damage incurred and public support was revoked. As a consequence, production will be terminated in 2022 leaving approximately 800 billion cubic metres of gas unexploited. The magnitudes of the events observed at underground gas storage, geothermal heat production and salt solution mining projects have so far been very limited (magnitudes ≤ 1.7). However, in the future larger events cannot be excluded. Project- or industry-specific risk governance protocols, extensive gathering of subsurface data and adequate seismic monitoring are therefore essential to allow sustainable use of the Dutch subsurface now and over the decades to come.

Geothermal energy is a viable alternative to gas for the heating of buildings, industrial areas and greenhouses, and can thus play an important role in making the transition to sustainable energy in the Netherlands. Heat is currently produced from the Dutch subsurface through circulation of water between two wells in deep (1.5–3 km) geothermal formations with temperature of up to ∼100 °C. As the number of these so-called doublets is expected to increase significantly over the next decades, and targeted depths and temperatures increase, it is important to assess potential show-stoppers related to geothermal operations. One of these potential hazards is the possibility of the occurrence of felt seismic events, which could potentially damage infrastructure and housing, and affect public support. Such events have been observed in several geothermal systems in other countries. Here we review the occurrence (or the lack) of felt seismic events in geothermal systems worldwide and identify key factors influencing the occurrence and magnitude of these events. Based on this review, we project the findings for seismicity in geothermal systems to typical geothermal formations and future geothermal developments in the Netherlands. The case study review shows that doublets that circulate fluids through relatively shallow, porous, sedimentary aquifers far from the crystalline basement are unlikely to generate felt seismic events. On the other hand, stimulations or circulations in or near competent, fractured, basement rocks and production and reinjection operations in high-temperature geothermal fields are more prone to induce felt events, occasionally with magnitudes of M > 5.0. Many of these operations are situated in tectonically active areas, and stress and temperature changes may be large. The presence of large, optimally oriented and critically stressed faults increases the potential for induced seismicity. The insights from the case study review suggest that the potential for the occurrence of M > 2.0 seismicity for geothermal operations in several of the sandstone target formations in the Netherlands is low, especially if faults can be avoided. The potential for induced seismicity may be moderate for operations in faulted carbonate rocks. Induced seismicity always remains a complex and site-specific process with large unknowns, and can never be excluded entirely. However, assessing the potential for inducing felt seismic events can be improved by considering the relevant (site-specific) geological and operational key factors discussed in this article.

Understanding the mechanisms and key parameters controlling depletion-induced seismicity is key for seismic hazard analyses and the design of mitigation measures. In this paper a methodology is presented to model in 2D the static stress development on faults offsetting depleting reservoir compartments, reactivation of the fault, nucleation of seismic instability, and the subsequent fully dynamic rupture including seismic fault rupture and near-field wave propagation. Slip-dependent reduction of the fault's strength (cohesion and friction) was used to model the development of the instability and seismic rupture. The inclusion of the dynamic calculation allows for a closer comparison to field observables such as borehole seismic data compared to traditional static geomechanical models. We applied this model procedure to a fault and stratigraphy typical for the Groningen field, and compared the results for an offset fault to a fault without offset. A non-zero offset on the fault strongly influenced the stress distribution along the fault due to stress concentrations in the near-fault area close to the top of the hanging wall and the base of the footwall. The heterogeneous stress distribution not only controlled where nucleation occurred within the reservoir interval, but also influenced the subsequent propagation of seismic rupture with low stresses inhibiting the propagation of slip. In a reservoir without offset the stress distribution was relatively uniform throughout the reservoir depth interval. Reactivation occurred at a much larger pressure decrease, but the subsequent seismic event was much larger due to the more uniform state of stress within the reservoir. In both cases the models predicted a unidirectional downward-propagating rupture, with the largest wave amplitudes being radiated downwards into the hanging wall. This study showed how a realistic seismic event could be successfully modelled, including the depletion-induced stressing, nucleation, dynamic propagation, and wave propagation. The influence of fault offset on the depletion-induced stress is significant; the heterogeneous stress development along offset faults not only strongly controls the timing and location of a seismic slip, but also influences the subsequent rupture size of the dynamic event.

Previous locations of earthquakes induced by depletion of the Groningen gas field were not accurate enough to infer which faults in the reservoir are reactivated. A multiplet analysis is performed to identify clusters of earthquakes that have similar waveforms, representing repeating rupture on the same or nearby faults. The multiplet analysis is based on the cross-correlation of seismograms to assess the degree of similarity. Using data of a single station, six earthquake clusters within the limits of the Groningen field were identified for the period 2010 to mid-2014. Four of these clusters were suitable for a relocation method that is based on the difference in travel time between the P- and the S-wave. Events within a cluster can be relocated relative to a master event with improved accuracy by cross-correlating first arrivals. By choosing master events located with a new dense seismic network, the relocated events likely not only have better relative, but also improved absolute locations. For a few clusters with sufficient signal-to-noise detections, we show that the relocation method is successful in assigning clusters to specific faults at the reservoir level. Overall, about 90% of the events did not show clustering, despite choosing low correlation thresholds of 0.5 and 0.6. This suggests that different faults and/or fault segments with likely varying source mechanisms are active in reservoir sub-regions of a few square kilometres.

Prediction of gas-production-induced subsidence and seismicity is much more difficult and uncertain than generally recognised in the past. It is now widely accepted that uncertainties in predicted subsidence and seismicity are large prior to and during the initial stages of production. At later stages, predictions remain highly uncertain for periods more than three to five years into the future. This requires a different regulatory framework to ensure that associated risks remain within accepted boundaries. Previously, single-scenario operator predictions were checked against field measurements. When subsidence or seismicity started to deviate beyond claimed uncertainties, the operator was asked to provide prediction updates. The practice was long considered acceptable, as structural damage to buildings and infrastructure or personal risk to people was not expected. This all changed following the 2012 Huizinge seismic event, necessitating better identification, assessment and ranking of risks, the use of scenarios, probabilistic forecasting and a much intensified field monitoring and control loop. It requires that the regulator becomes actively involved in assuring the integrated control loop of risk identification, predictions, monitoring, updating, mitigation measures and the closing of knowledge gaps, to ensure that subsidence (rate) and induced seismicity remain within acceptable limits. And it requires that this increased involvement of the regulator is supported in the mining law and by appropriate conditions in the Production Plan assent.

In the Netherlands, over 190 gas fields of varying size have been exploited, and 15% of these have shown seismicity. The prime cause for seismicity due to gas depletion is stress changes caused by pressure depletion and by differential compaction. The observed onset of induced seismicity due to gas depletion in the Netherlands occurs after a considerable pressure drop in the gas fields. Geomechanical studies show that both the delay in the onset of induced seismicity and the nonlinear increase in seismic moment observed for the induced seismicity in the Groningen field can be explained by a model of pressure depletion, if the faults causing the induced seismicity are not critically stressed at the onset of depletion. Our model shows concave patterns of log moment with time for individual faults. This suggests that the growth of future seismicity could well be more limited than would be inferred from extrapolation of the observed trend between production or compaction and seismicity. The geomechanical models predict that seismic moment increase should slow down significantly immediately after a production decrease, independently of the decay rate of the compaction model. These findings are in agreement with the observed reduced seismicity rates in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after production decrease on 17 January 2014. The geomechanical model findings therefore support scope for mitigating induced seismicity by adjusting rates of production and associated pressure change. These simplified models cannot serve as comprehensive models for predicting induced seismicity in any particular field. To this end, a more detailed field-specific study, taking into account the full complexity of reservoir geometry, depletion history and mechanical properties, is required.

The Groningen field is the largest onshore gas field in Europe. The gas-bearing section comprises aeolian and fluvial Rotliegend sandstones of Permian age and fluvial sandstones of Carboniferous age. Continuous production since 1963 has led to induced seismicity starting in the early 1990s.

Faults at reservoir level play a major role in the seismicity in the Groningen field. Fault slip is expected when shear traction is sufficient to overcome frictional resistance on the fault surface. Clear insights into which faults and fault segments are most susceptible to seismicity could be used to optimise production and minimise the seismic risk. To gain these insights, a detailed and realistic fault model is required as input to both statistical analyses on seismicity and deterministic geomechanical modelling of seismogenic behaviour along fault planes. Geometrical seismic attributes and, subsequently, fault planes were extracted from a reprocessed and depth-imaged 3D seismic volume. This resulted in a detailed visualisation of the faults at reservoir level, with extension into the deeper strata below the reservoir in many cases. They represent fault planes with realistic dimensions and shapes. The fault map based on seismic attributes suggests the presence of faults that have not been included in studies on Groningen seismicity before. The improved fault definition correlates with recent earthquake hypocentres. We conclude that a detailed fault model of the Groningen field can be created using 3D seismic attributes and that detailed 3D fault planes can be extracted from these attributes. The results can be used as input to statistical and geomechanical analyses on seismicity.

This paper describes a research programme recently initiated at Utrecht University that aims to contribute new, fundamental physical understanding and quantitative descriptions of rock and fault behaviour needed to advance understanding of reservoir compaction and fault behaviour in the context of induced seismicity and subsidence in the Groningen gas field. The NAM-funded programme involves experimental rock and fault mechanics work, microscale observational studies to determine the processes that control reservoir rock deformation and fault slip, modelling and experimental work aimed at establishing upscaling rules between laboratory and field scales, and geomechanical modelling of fault rupture and earthquake generation at the reservoir scale. Here, we focus on describing the programme and its intended contribution to understanding the response of the Groningen field to gas production. The key knowledge gaps that drive the programme are discussed and the approaches employed to address them are highlighted. Some of the first results emerging from the work in progress are also reported briefly and are providing important new insights.

Depletion of the Groningen gas field has induced earthquakes, although the north of the Netherlands is a tectonically inactive region. Increased seismic activity raised public concern which led the government to initiate a number of studies with the aim of understanding the cause(s) of the earthquakes. If the relationship between production and seismicity were understood then production could be optimized in such a way that the risk of induced seismicity would be minimal. The main question remains how production is correlated with induced seismicity. The Minister of Economic Affairs of the Netherlands decided to reduce production starting from 17 January 2014, specifically in the centre of the gas field as it has the highest rates of seismicity, the largest-magnitude events and the highest compaction values of the field.

A reduction in production could possibly lead to a reduced rate of compaction. Additionally a reduction of production rate could lead to a reduced stress rate increase on the existing faults and consequently fewer seismic events per year. One might envisage a ‘bonus effect’ in the events reduction in the sense that the total number of events will be less, with the same total production smeared out over a longer period. This is as yet unclear.

In this paper we apply different statistical methods to look for evidence supporting or disproving a decrease in the number of seismic events due to production reduction.

The Groningen field is the largest onshore gas field in Europe. Continuous production since 1963 has led to induced seismicity starting in the early 1990s. Production measures aimed at lowering the level of seismicity have been implemented since 2014. In this paper we start from an empirical relationship between the cumulative number of seismic events and cumulative gas production. We show that a better way to analyse the data is to relate the ratio of activity rate over production rate versus the cumulative production, such that the model parameters and their uncertainty can be determined. This also allows us to make predictions including the confidence intervals.

Using this model, we first performed regression analysis based on the larger seismic catalogue which includes all recorded events with a magnitude of 1.3 and larger, because we consider this value to be the magnitude of completeness since 1995. We have also performed regression analysis based on a smaller seismic catalogue consisting of all events with a magnitude of 1.5 and larger. This was done in order to be able to compare our forecast with forecasts performed by others. Our prediction for 2016, based on the seismic catalogue of all events with a magnitude of M≥1.5 (using only the events recorded before 2016), was 16±8 events. By the end of 2016, 13 such events had been recorded.

We discuss a number of factors which may influence the predictive power of the derived relationship and which require further study. For instance, we consider the delay between production and earthquakes which increases with decreasing reservoir pressure. In addition, the effect of seasonal fluctuation in Groningen production should be considered. Future work can be done to include these effects in the empirical model. We also investigated the challenges related to the applicability of the analysis to sub-regions of the Groningen field.

Earthquakes associated with gas production have been recorded in the northern part of the Netherlands since 1986. The Huizinge earthquake of 16 August 2012, the strongest so far with a magnitude of ML = 3.6, prompted reassessment of the seismicity induced by production from the Groningen gas field. An international research programme was initiated, with the participation of many Dutch and international universities, knowledge institutes and recognised experts.

The prime aim of the programme was to assess the hazard and risk resulting from the induced seismicity. Classic probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment (PSHA) was implemented using a Monte Carlo method. The scope of the research programme extended from the cause (production of gas from the underground reservoir) to the effects (risk to people and damage to buildings). Data acquisition through field measurements and laboratory experiments was a substantial element of the research programme. The existing geophone and accelerometer monitoring network was extended, a new network of accelerometers in building foundations was installed, geophones were placed at reservoir level in deep wells, GPS stations were installed and a gravity survey was conducted.

Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment have been published in production plans submitted to the Minister of Economic Affairs, Winningsplan Groningen 2013 and 2016 and several intermediate updates. The studies and data acquisition further constrained the uncertainties and resulted in a reduction of the initially assessed hazard and risk.

The presence of salt in dilatant normal faults may have a strong influence on fault mechanics in the Groningen field and on the related induced seismicity. At present, little is known of the structure of these fault zones. This study starts with the geological evolution of the Groningen area, where, during tectonic faulting, rock salt may have migrated downwards into dilatant faults. These fault zones therefore may contain inclusions of rock salt. Because of its rate-dependent mechanical properties, the presence of salt in a fault may introduce a loading-rate dependency into fault movement and affect the distribution of magnitudes of seismic events. We present a first-look study showing how these processes can be investigated using a combination of analogue and numerical modelling. Full scaling of the models and quantification of implications for induced seismicity in Groningen require further, more detailed studies: an understanding of fault zone structure in the Groningen field is required for improved predictions of induced seismicity. The analogue experiments are based on a simplified stratigraphy of the Groningen area, where it is generally thought that most of the Rotliegend faulting has taken place in the Jurassic, after deposition of the Zechstein. This suggests that, at the time of faulting, the sulphates were already transformed into brittle anhydrite. If these layers were sufficiently brittle to fault in a dilatant fashion, rock salt was able to flow downwards into the dilatant fractures. To test this hypothesis, we use sandbox experiments where we combine cohesive powder as analogue for brittle anhydrites and carbonates with viscous salt analogues to explore the developing fault geometry and the resulting distribution of salt in the faults. Using the observations from analogue models as input, numerical models investigate the stick-slip behaviour of fault zones containing ductile material qualitatively with the discrete element method (DEM). Results show that the DEM approach is suitable for modelling the seismicity of faults containing salt. The stick-slip motion of the fault becomes dependent on shear loading rate with a modification of the frequency–magnitude distribution of the generated seismic events.

Further research into seismicity caused by natural gas production from the Groningen field is necessary to improve the assessment of seismic risk and develop means to control and reduce it. Research into subsurface aspects is primarily of relevance to assess the seismic hazard component in the cause-and-effect chain that governs the seismic risk. It requires a wide range of research activities that can be broadly classified as follows:

• • Increasing understanding of the physical mechanisms that govern production-induced seismicity, in particular source mechanisms, compaction behaviour, propagation of energy to the surface, and the effects of fluctuating production.

• • Reducing uncertainty by acquiring additional field data to improve statistical inference, and developing statistical methods and procedures that can cope with the non-stationary nature of the process.

• • Developing tools and techniques to improve risk management, and support operational control and policy measures under uncertainty.

An essential requirement for further research will be the possibility of developing competing theories for many aspects of the modelling chain. This requires an overall hazard and risk assessment methodology that can accommodate multiple models, and an organisational structure that facilitates the comparison of competing approaches while safeguarding their independent development. This will have to be supported by the availability of reliable data via shared databases. Finally, the scientific community should be prepared to make a major effort to translate their research results into popular scientific versions in order to keep stakeholders abreast of progressive insight into the origin, predictability and prevention of induced seismicity.

A point process procedure can be used to study reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS), in which the intensity function representing earthquake hazard is a combination of three terms: a constant background term, an ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) term for aftershocks, and a time function derived from observation of water levels of a reservoir. This paper presents the results of such a study of the seismicity in the vicinity of the Tarbela reservoir in Pakistan. Making allowance for changes in detection capability and the background seismicity related to tectonic activity, earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 2.0, occurring between May 1978 and January 1982 and whose epicentres were within 100 km of the reservoir, were used in this analysis. Several different intensities were compared via their Akaike information criterion (AIC) values relative to those of a Poisson process. The results demonstrate that the seismicity within 20 km of the reservoir correlates with water levels of the reservoir, namely, active periods occur about 250 days after the appearance of low water levels. This suggests that unloading the reservoir activates the seismicity beneath it. Seasonal variations of the seismicity in an area up to 100 km from the reservoir were also found, but these could not be adequately interpreted by an appropriate RIS mechanism.