This paper tests whether in a PAYG system there is an inter-generational balance between the contributions made during the working-career and the pension benefit received in retirement; covering different cohorts. The analysis takes Malta as a case study. Though the dependency ratio is comparatively low, the population is rapidly ageing. The results show that there is a generational imbalance with the young cohort unlikely to be any better off than those who have already retired. This however is sensitive to the assumed discount rate and the ‘no policy’ change scenario. The results also show that future generations may be net-gainers assuming a sustained level of wage growth. If, on the other hand, wage growth slows, the younger generation may become increasingly reliant on the bequests of older generations. This would explain why pressure has increased to regularly adjust the existing PAYG system as well to introduce other forms of pension schemes.

Economists typically argue population ageing generates fiscal pressures by restricting the tax base while increasing demands for social spending. Alongside other economic pressures associated with neoliberalism, this dynamic contributes to a politics of ‘enduring austerity’ that limits governments’ fiscal discretion. The politics of population ageing reflects modelling techniques, such as generational accounting (GA), which, anticipating future deficits, create demands for policy action today to address projected intergenerational inequalities. Taking Australia as a case study, this paper explores the politics of GA in public budgetary processes. While existing critiques reject GA by arguing it relies on ‘apocalyptic’ or unreliable demography, we focus on a different kind of contestation, which applies the techniques and even the categories of GA to frame different problems and promote different solutions. We identify three sites of partisan contest that refocus fiscal modelling: including the tax side of the budget equation; comparing the cost of public provision to public subsidies for private programmes; and including the costs of environmental damage. At each site, the future-orientated logic of GA is mobilised to contest the policy implications of austerity. This complicates analysis that financialisation and neoliberalism necessarily ‘de-politicise’ policy by removing state discretion. Instead, we identify an increasingly important, if technocratic, form of political contestation that offers the possibility to promote more egalitarian responses to population ageing.

This paper looks at some of the key fiscal questions related to Scottish independence, drawing on detailed analysis of household survey data, official data on public spending and revenues, and using a model of the UK and Scotland's public finances over the next half a century. We examine how and why public spending on, and revenues raised from, Scotland differ from the average across the UK, and how Scotland's fiscal position might be expected to evolve over the next 50 years under current policies.