Development and commercialization of technologies that utilize on-farm energy sources are beset by uncertainty. Producer gas, a technology that allows wood to be converted to a gaseous fuel which can power internal combustion engines, is evaluated for irrigation systems using simulation modeling and stochastic efficiency analysis. For many market conditions, producer gas stochastically dominates diesel fuel for powering a center pivot irrigation system in terms of lower cost. Commercial potential exists, but experience with pilot installations is required to further reduce uncertainty.