The Nankai Trough, which marks the boundary between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea plates, is forecasted to create a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami within 30 years. The Japanese government believes that the number of casualties would be huge. However, the exact number of severely injured (SI) people who would need emergency and intensive care has not been identified.

This study, therefore, aimed to clarify the gap between medical supplies and forecasted demand.

The official data estimating the number of injured people were collected, together with the number of intensive care unit (ICU) and high care unit (HCU) beds from each prefecture throughout Japan. The number of SI cases was recalculated based on official data. The number of hospital beds was then compared with the number of SI people.

The total number of hospitals in Japan is 8,493 with 893,970 beds, including 6,556 ICU and 5,248 HCU beds. When the Nankai Trough earthquake occurs, 187 of the 723 disaster base hospitals (DBHs) would be located in the areas with a seismic intensity of an upper six on the Japanese Seismic Intensity Scale (JSIS) of seven, and 79 DBHs would be located in the tsunami inundation area. The estimated total number of injured people would be 661,604, including 26,857 severe, 290,065 moderate, and 344,682 minor cases.

Even if all ICU and HCU beds were available for severe patients, an additional 15,053 beds would be needed. If 80% of beds were used in non-disaster times, the available ICU and HCU beds would be only 2,361. The Cabinet Office of Japan (Chiyoda City, Tokyo, Japan) assumes that 60% of hospital beds would be unavailable in an area with an upper six on the JSIS. The number of ICU and HCU beds that would be usable during a disaster would thus further decrease. The beds needed for severe patients, therefore, would be significantly lacking when the Nankai Trough earthquake occurs. It would be necessary to start the treatment of those severe patients who are “more likely to be saved.”

We quantified an absolute imbalance of the medical risks and the support needs for children at each disaster-based hospital in Kanagawa immediately following the occurrence of a large earthquake by using the risk resource ratio (RRR) and need for medical resources (NMR).

The RRR and NMR of 33 disaster-based hospitals were estimated through dividing the estimated number of pediatric victims by the number of critically patients. We calculated the ratio of the NMR of each hospital.

The total number of pediatric victims in Kanagawa was estimated at 8,391. The total number of vacant beds for pediatric victims was 352. The median RRR and NMR of the total number of pediatric victims were 27 and 224. The median RRR and NMR of the number of critically ill pediatric patients were 27 and 12.

The absolute imbalance of the RRR and NMR for children in Kanagawa was quantified. This suggests that we might embark on preparedness strategies for children in advance. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;13:672–676)

In 2015, the authors reported the results of a preliminary investigation of preventable disaster deaths (PDDs) at medical institutions in areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011). This initial survey considered only disaster base hospitals (DBHs) and hospitals that had experienced at least 20 patient deaths in Miyagi Prefecture (Japan); therefore, hospitals that experienced fewer than 20 patient deaths were not investigated. This was an additional study to the previous survey to better reflect PDD at hospitals across the entire prefecture.

Of the 147 hospitals in Miyagi Prefecture, the 14 DBHs and 82 non-DBHs that agreed to participate were included in an on-site survey. A database was created based on the medical records of 1,243 patient deaths that occurred between March 11, 2011 and April 1, 2011, followed by determination of their status as PDDs.

A total of 125 cases of PDD were identified among the patients surveyed. The rate of PDD was significantly higher at coastal hospitals than inland hospitals (17.3% versus 6.3%; P<.001). Preventable disaster deaths in non-DBHs were most numerous in facilities with few general beds, especially among patients hospitalized before the disaster in hospitals with fewer than 100 beds. Categorized by area, the most frequent causes of PDD were: insufficient medical resources, disrupted lifelines, delayed medical intervention, and deteriorated environmental conditions in homes and emergency shelters in coastal areas; and were delayed medical intervention and disrupted lifelines in inland areas. Categorized by hospital function, the most frequent causes were: delayed medical intervention, deteriorated environmental conditions in homes and emergency shelters, and insufficient medical resources at DBHs; while those at non-DBHs were disrupted lifelines, insufficient medical resources, delayed medical intervention, and lack of capacity for transport within the area.

Preventable disaster death at medical institutions in areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred mainly at coastal hospitals with insufficient medical resources, disrupted lifelines, delayed medical intervention, and deteriorated environmental conditions in homes and emergency shelters constituting the main contributing factors. Preventing PDD, in addition to strengthening organizational support and functional enhancement of DBHs, calls for the development of business continuity plans (BCPs) for medical facilities in directly affected areas, including non-DBHs.

YamanouchiS, SasakiH, KondoH, MaseT, OtomoY, KoidoY, KushimotoS. Survey of Preventable Disaster Deaths at Medical Institutions in Areas Affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake: Retrospective Survey of Medical Institutions in Miyagi Prefecture. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):515–522.

To clarify advance measures for business continuity taken by disaster base hospitals involved in the Great East Japan Earthquake.

The predisaster situation regarding stockpiles was abstracted from a 2010 survey. Timing of electricity and water restoration and sufficiency of supplies to continue operations were investigated through materials from Miyagi Prefecture disaster medicine headquarters (prefectural medical headquarters) and disaster base hospitals (14 hospitals) in Miyagi Prefecture after the East Japan earthquake.

The number of hospitals with less than 1 day of stockpiles in reserve before the disaster was 7 (50%) for electricity supplies, 8 (57.1%) for water, 6 (42.9%) for medical goods, and 6 (42.9%) for food. After the disaster, restoration of electricity and water did not occur until the second day or later at 8 of 13 (61.5%) hospitals, respectively. By the fourth postdisaster day, 14 hospitals had requested supplies from the prefectural medical headquarters: 9 (64.3%) for electricity supplies, 2 (14.3%) for water trucks, 9 (64.3%) for medical goods, and 6 (42.9%) for food.

The lack of supplies needed to continue operations in disaster base hospitals following the disaster clearly indicated that current business continuity plans require revision. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;0:1-6)

The large number casualties caused by the 1995 Great Hanshin and Awaji Earthquake created a massive demand for medical care. However, as area hospitals also were damaged by the earthquake, they were unable to perform their usual functions. Therefore, the care capacity was reduced greatly. Thus, the needs to: (1) transport a large number of injured and ill people out of the disaster-affected area; and (2) dispatch medical teams to perform such wide-area transfers were clear. The need for trained medical teams to provide medical assistance also was made clear after the Niigata-ken Chuetsu Earthquake in 2004. Therefore, the Japanese government decided to establish Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMATs), as “mobile, trained medical teams that rapidly can be deployed during the acute phase of a sudden-onset disaster”. Disaster Medical Assistance Teams have been established in much of Japan. The provision of emergency relief and medical care and the enhancement and promotion of DMATs for wide-area deployments during disasters were incorporated formally in the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention in its July 2005 amendment.

The essential points pertaining to DMATs were summarized as a set of guidelines for DMAT deployment. These were based on the results of research funded by a Health and Labour Sciences research grant from the, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) of the Ministry of Health. The guidelines define the basic procedures for DMAT activities—for example: (1) the activities are to be based on agreements concluded between prefectures and medical institutions during non-emergency times; and (2) deployment is based on requests from disaster-affected prefectures and the basic roles of prefectures and the MHLW. The guidelines also detail DMAT activities at the disaster scene of the, support from medical institutions, and transportation assistance including “wide-area” medical transport activities, such as medical treatment in staging care units and the implementation of medical treatment onboard aircraft.

Japan's DMATs are small-scale units that are designed to be suitable for responding to the demands of acute emergencies. Further issues to be examined in relation to DMATs include expanding their application to all prefectures, and systems to facilitate continuous education and training.