This paper, based on data from the latest checklist of Italy, analyzes the distribution patterns of rare and common lichen species within biogeographically homogeneous versus heterogeneous areas of Italy, and the relationships with some main drivers of rarity and commonness. The following data were used: 1) commonness-rarity values of 2565 species in nine ecoregions; 2) frequency of 353 nationally rare and 387 nationally common species in 21 administrative regions. The following functional and ecological traits were considered: growth form, photobiont(s), type of reproduction, substrata, bioclimatic range, ecological indicator values for aridity and eutrophication, and poleophoby. Within each ecoregion, rare species by far outweigh common species but about one third of these are common in other ecoregions. At the level of regional floras, rarity is significantly associated with epiphytic substrata, non-trebouxioid photobionts and high air humidity, while commonness is associated with saxicolous substrata, trebouxioid photobionts and eutrophication. Rarity seems to mainly depend on two factors, bioclimate (many rare species are outside the limit of their bioclimatic optima) and reduced availability of suitable habitats (e.g. old-growth forests), while commonness is mainly related to disturbance (eutrophication, creation of drier habitats). Most of the nationally rare lichens belong to an oceanic-suboceanic element with tropical affinities or to a small set of continental species with their optima in the dry steppe biome, which suggests that many rare species can persist in microrefugia, that is sites with microclimates that support small populations of species beyond the boundaries of the climatic limits of their main distributions.

The potential spatial distributions of six epiphytic lichen species were assessed in Switzerland (41 000 km2) as a function of various key climatic drivers and forest types using logistic regression models. Cetrelia cetrarioides is ‘near threatened’, Lobaria pulmonaria is ‘vulnerable’, and Graphis scripta, Hypogymnia physodes, Lecanora cadubriae, Letharia vulpina are not endangered according to the Red List assessment based on IUCN criteria. Lichen presence and absence were derived from the SwissLichens database that contains spatially explicit information on both species presence and absence.

The spatial lichen niches are predicted with R2 values between 0·5 and 0·75 and AUC values between 0·63 and 0·94. Model evaluation shows that the models perform well.

Lichenologists reviewed the spatial predictions of lichen species on the basis of their expert knowledge and concluded that parsimonious regression models may suffice for successful prediction of the potential spatial niche distributions of epiphytic lichen species.