Parameter recovery and item utilization were investigated for different designs for online test item calibration. The design was adaptive in a double sense: it assumed both adaptive testing of examinees from an operational pool of previously calibrated items and adaptive assignment of field-test items to the examinees. Four criteria of optimality for the assignment of the field-test items were used, each of them based on the information in the posterior distributions of the examinee’s ability parameter during adaptive testing as well as the sequentially updated posterior distributions of the field-test item parameters. In addition, different stopping rules based on target values for the posterior standard deviations of the field-test parameters and the size of the calibration sample were used. The impact of each of the criteria and stopping rules on the statistical efficiency of the estimates of the field-test parameters and on the time spent by the items in the calibration procedure was investigated. Recommendations as to the practical use of the designs are given.

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter θ is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given level of significance in many cases; and, therefore, the corresponding intervals are no longer confidence intervals in terms of the actual definition. In the present work, confidence intervals are defined more precisely by utilizing the relationship between confidence intervals and hypothesis testing. Two approaches to confidence interval construction are explored that are optimal with respect to criteria of smallness and consistency with the standard approach.

Item calibration is an essential issue in modern item response theory based psychological or educational testing. Due to the popularity of computerized adaptive testing, methods to efficiently calibrate new items have become more important than that in the time when paper and pencil test administration is the norm. There are many calibration processes being proposed and discussed from both theoretical and practical perspectives. Among them, the online calibration may be one of the most cost effective processes. In this paper, under a variable length computerized adaptive testing scenario, we integrate the methods of adaptive design, sequential estimation, and measurement error models to solve online item calibration problems. The proposed sequential estimate of item parameters is shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normally distributed with a prechosen accuracy. Numerical results show that the proposed method is very promising in terms of both estimation accuracy and efficiency. The results of using calibrated items to estimate the latent trait levels are also reported.

Several criteria from the optimal design literature are examined for use with item selection in multidimensional adaptive testing. In particular, it is examined what criteria are appropriate for adaptive testing in which all abilities are intentional, some should be considered as a nuisance, or the interest is in the testing of a composite of the abilities. Both the theoretical analyses and the studies of simulated data in this paper suggest that the criteria of A-optimality and D-optimality lead to the most accurate estimates when all abilities are intentional, with the former slightly outperforming the latter. The criterion of E-optimality showed occasional erratic behavior for this case of adaptive testing, and its use is not recommended. If some of the abilities are nuisances, application of the criterion of As-optimality (or Ds-optimality), which focuses on the subset of intentional abilities is recommended. For the measurement of a linear combination of abilities, the criterion of c-optimality yielded the best results. The preferences of each of these criteria for items with specific patterns of parameter values was also assessed. It was found that the criteria differed mainly in their preferences of items with different patterns of values for their discrimination parameters.

Applications of item response theory, which depend upon its parameter invariance property, require that parameter estimates be unbiased. A new method, weighted likelihood estimation (WLE), is derived, and proved to be less biased than maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with the same asymptotic variance and normal distribution. WLE removes the first order bias term from MLE. Two Monte Carlo studies compare WLE with MLE and Bayesian modal estimation (BME) of ability in conventional tests and tailored tests, assuming the item parameters are known constants. The Monte Carlo studies favor WLE over MLE and BME on several criteria over a wide range of the ability scale.

In order to identify aberrant response-time patterns on educational and psychological tests, it is important to be able to separate the speed at which the test taker operates from the time the items require. A lognormal model for response times with this feature was used to derive a Bayesian procedure for detecting aberrant response times. Besides, a combination of the response-time model with a regular response model in an hierarchical framework was used in an alternative procedure for the detection of aberrant response times, in which collateral information on the test takers’ speed is derived from their response vectors. The procedures are illustrated using a data set for the Graduate Management Admission Test® (GMAT®). In addition, a power study was conducted using simulated cheating behavior on an adaptive test.

An optimal adaptive design for test-item calibration based on Bayesian optimality criteria is presented. The design adapts the choice of field-test items to the examinees taking an operational adaptive test using both the information in the posterior distributions of their ability parameters and the current posterior distributions of the field-test parameters. Different criteria of optimality based on the two types of posterior distributions are possible. The design can be implemented using an MCMC scheme with alternating stages of sampling from the posterior distributions of the test takers’ ability parameters and the parameters of the field-test items while reusing samples from earlier posterior distributions of the other parameters. Results from a simulation study demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed MCMC implementation for operational item calibration. A comparison of performances for different optimality criteria showed faster calibration of substantial numbers of items for the criterion of D-optimality relative to A-optimality, a special case of c-optimality, and random assignment of items to the test takers.

A shadow-test approach to the calibration of field-test items embedded in adaptive testing is presented. The objective function used in the shadow-test model selects both the operational and field-test items adaptively using a Bayesian version of the criterion of $D_{\mathrm{s}}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$D_{\mathrm{s}}$$\end{document}-optimality. The constraint set for the model can be used to hide the field-test items completely in the content of the test as well as to deal with such practical issues as random control of their exposure rates. The approach runs on efficient implementations of the Gibbs sampler for the real-time updating of the ability and field-test parameters. Optimal settings for the proposed algorithms were found and used to demonstrate item calibration with smaller than traditional sample sizes in runtimes fully comparable with conventional adaptive testing.

This paper provides a description of a new adaptive testing algorithm based on a latent class modeling framework. The algorithm incorporates a four-stage iterative procedure that conditionally minimizes expected loss in classification of respondents across different content domains. The classification decisions relate to the membership of a person in a category of a latent variable for each of the separate domains considered. The algorithm appears to be particularly effective when latent class membership is related across the various domains of interest, since classification decisions on domains assessed early in the process are used to revise the probabilities for latent class membership on domains for which classification decisions have not yet been made. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, a simulation based upon real data was conducted. For this example, the algorithm proved to be relatively efficient, requiring only 40% of the number of items needed under a nonadaptive approach. In addition, the algorithm provided classification decisions which, in 96% of the cases, were consistent with decisions based upon all available items when the maximum acceptable classification error rate was set at 5%.

In this paper it is demonstrated how statistical inference from multistage test designs can be made based on the conditional likelihood. Special attention is given to parameter estimation, as well as the evaluation of model fit. Two reasons are provided why the fit of simple measurement models is expected to be better in adaptive designs, compared to linear designs: more parameters are available for the same number of observations; and undesirable response behavior, like slipping and guessing, might be avoided owing to a better match between item difficulty and examinee proficiency. The results are illustrated with simulated data, as well as with real data.

Owen (1975) proposed an approximate empirical Bayes procedure for item selection in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The procedure replaces the true posterior by a normal approximation with closed-form expressions for its first two moments. This approximation was necessary to minimize the computational complexity involved in a fully Bayesian approach but is no longer necessary given the computational power currently available for adaptive testing. This paper suggests several item selection criteria for adaptive testing which are all based on the use of the true posterior. Some of the statistical properties of the ability estimator produced by these criteria are discussed and empirically characterized.

Item response theory posits “local independence,” or conditional independence of item responses given item parameters and examinee proficiency parameters. The usual definition of local independence, however, addresses the context of fixed tests, and initially appears to yield incorrect response-pattern probabilities in the context of adaptive testing. The paradox is resolved by introducing additional notation to deal with the item selection mechanism.

We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n=5336) showing robust psychometric discriminability across 15 countries (e.g., Germany, Pakistan, Japan, USA) and diverse samples (e.g., medical professionals, general populations, Mechanical Turk web panels). Analyses demonstrate desirable patterns of convergent validity (e.g., numeracy, general cognitive abilities), discriminant validity (e.g., personality, motivation), and criterion validity (e.g., numerical and non-numerical questions about risk). The Berlin Numeracy Test was found to be the strongest predictor of comprehension of everyday risks (e.g., evaluating claims about products and treatments; interpreting forecasts), doubling the predictive power of other numeracy instruments and accounting for unique variance beyond other cognitive tests (e.g., cognitive reflection, working memory, intelligence). The Berlin Numeracy Test typically takes about three minutes to complete and is available in multiple languages and formats, including a computer adaptive test that automatically scores and reports data to researchers (http://www.riskliteracy.org). The online forum also provides interactive content for public outreach and education, and offers a recommendation system for test format selection. Discussion centers on construct validity of numeracy for risk literacy, underlying cognitive mechanisms, and applications in adaptive decision support.