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The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU) single market and customs union has adversely affected trade prospects of many developing economies that depended on the UK market for their exports. This paper investigates the impact of Brexit on African countries' exports to the UK. The comparison is based upon trade between the set of African countries which export most to the UK and the EU. It provides a quantitative assessment of the trade effect through the use of descriptive analysis and empirical estimations by employing the difference-in-difference (DID) estimation approach. The descriptive analysis finds that the share of African exports sent to the UK has declined since the Brexit announcement in 2016. The empirical estimations using the DID approach also demonstrate a drop of 20–30% in African countries exports to the UK relative to the EU-27 in this period. These results hold to a battery of robustness checks, including the use of an alternative estimation approach, varying sample size, and the use of alternative counterfactuals. We further show that the trade flows started to drop immediately after the announcement of the Brexit referendum in 2015 but the main drop came after the Brexit referendum results became evident. These findings imply the need for policy intervention and support for African countries to revitalize their trade flows and alleviate the unintended effects of this trade shock.
This chapter analyses global value chains. First, we explain how globalisation leads to fragmentation of production and dispersion of activities. Global value chains consist of nodes, where each node represents the value added received from the previous node. Countries can now specialise in activities and functions – nodes of the global value chain – rather than in the whole production of certain goods. Second, we discuss how to measure global value chains, which is challenging. Recent efforts allow us to estimate so-called forward- and backward linkages. Third, we provide a framework to map the governance configuration of global value chains based on the complexity of the knowledge to be exchanged in a transaction, the ease of codifying information about the transaction, and the capability of the supplier with respect to the specificities of the transaction. Fourth, we describe some possible sources of inefficiencies in global value chains (taxation, rent-seeking, contracts and trade costs).
This chapter describes broad regional and temporal trends in the evolution of international trade and international factor flows between 1700 and 1870, including key differences in trade costs across space and time. We find trade links in western Europe and the European colonies of North America intensified at the same time these regions experienced the initial Industrial Revolution and the spread of industrialization, which led to sustained economic growth. At the same time, global differences in specialization and income emerged. To understand the contribution of global market forces as well as colonialism to these differences, the chapter lays out theoretical reasons for links between trade and economic growth and examines related historical arguments and evidence. We conclude that trade contributed to global divergence, but the magnitude and mechanisms through which trade affected global welfare lies not so much in the direct impact of trade and specialization as in multiplier effects emerging from the interactions of trade with other factors that affect economic development.
This work shows the asymmetric effect of the reduction in transportation costs across different sectors in the process of the Great Divergence. Specifically, the analysis indicates that reductions in transportation costs of industrial goods enhance convergence of the growth rates of trading economies. In contrast, reductions in transportation costs of nonindustrial goods contribute to a further divergence across countries.
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