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4 - Literature, Data, Transition Path, and Causality
from Part IIA - The Democratic Transition
Martin Paldam, Aarhus Universitet, Denmark
Book:

The Grand Pattern of Development and the Transition of Institutions

Published online:

07 August 2021

Print publication:

19 August 2021, pp 57-78
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Summary

The chapter develops the stylized facts used in the following three chapters and surveys the literature on the effect of development on democracy and on the effect of democracy on development. The main dataset is the Polity P-index with 7,142 annual observations covering 1960–2016 in the Main sample and 818 in the OPEC sample. The chapter also considers the two political indices from Freedom House. The transition curves for the three political indices are beautiful. The transition curves are robust, with the OPEC-exception. The variability of the political system vanishes with development in accordance with the End of History hypothesis. The causality tests show that increased income causes democracy with little simultaneity only. This finding is robust over 200 years.