We study the main shocks driving current account (CA) fluctuations for the G6 economies, using a standard two-good intertemporal model. We build a structural vector autoregression model including the world real interest rate, net output (NO), the real exchange rate, and the CA and identify four structural shocks. Our results suggest four main conclusions: (i) there is substantial support for the two-good intertemporal model with time-varying interest rate, since both external supply and preference shocks account for an important proportion of CA fluctuations; (ii) temporary domestic shocks account for a large proportion of CA fluctuations, albeit smaller than in previous studies; (iii) our results alleviate the puzzle in the literature that a shock that explains little about NO changes can explain a large proportion of CA changes; (iv) the nature of the shock matters to shape the relationship between the CA and the real exchange rate.

This paper finds strong evidence of a positive relationship between currency risk premia and real exchange rate swings, significant at the 1% if not 0.1% level, for three US$ exchange rate samples. The risk premia are measured using survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts. This circumvents the need for an auxiliary hypothesis of rationality and enables more direct focus on risk behavior. The analysis is conducted using the I(2) cointegrated VAR, which allows for time-varying trends in the variables. Evidence of persistent changes is found for interest rates, prices, and nominal and real exchange rates. Interest rate shocks appear to drive the system, whereas expectations are correcting only in the longer run.

This paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard international real business cycle model augmented with preferences with zero wealth effect, variable capacity utilization, and investment adjustment costs. First, I find that the bulk of fluctuations in country-specific outputs, consumption, investments, and international relative prices can be attributed to country-specific neutral technology, investment-specific technology, and preference shocks. Second, my estimated model with economically meaningful shocks simultaneously accounts for the negative correlation between the real exchange rate and relative consumption and the negative correlation between the terms of trade and relative output. Last, through a marginal likelihood comparison exercise, I find that the success of the model depends on preferences with zero wealth effects; other frictions and alternative asset market structures play a less important role.

This paper examines the mechanisms through which government spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral mobility costs for private capital, we show that public investment generates (i) a nonmonotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs and (ii) a crowding-in of private consumption, consistent with stylized facts. The effects of public consumption, however, are in sharp contrast to those of public investment. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the sectoral composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the sectoral intensity of private capital in production, (iv) the relative sectoral productivity of public infrastructure, (v) the elasticity of substitution in production, and (vi) intersectoral mobility costs for capital. In deriving these results, we identify conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities. Our results underscore the importance of decoupling the effects of government investment from those of government consumption in understanding the relationship between fiscal policy and the real exchange rate.

This paper examines the dynamic and desirable properties of monetary regimes in a remittances recipient economy, with emphasis on the effect on sectoral output and nontradable inflation dynamics. The findings indicate that under a fixed exchange rate regime, an increase in remittances creates increased demand for nontradable goods, and hence a rise in nontradable inflation, as well as expansion in output of nontradables. Under a nontradable inflation targeting regime, however, a decrease in nontradable inflation and an expansion in tradable goods production are observed following an increase in remittances. A near-zero nontradable inflation rate and managed variability in the nominal exchange rate typify the optimal monetary policy, suggesting that an inflation targeting regime is preferable to a fixed exchange regime under such a scenario. A VAR analysis shows that the dynamics of inflation in El Salvador and the Philippines is in consonance with those observed in the model under the fixed exchange rate and nontradable inflation targeting regimes, respectively.

This paper investigates the international dimension of economic fluctuations and transmission of structural shocks by estimating a structural VAR model for the United States, the euro area, and Japan—the three largest economies—over the post-Bretton Woods period. The main findings are as follows: (1) Supply-side shocks (technology and supply-level shocks) explain most of the fluctuations in cross-country output deviations. (2) Real-demand shocks are the most important source of real-exchange-rate fluctuations. (3) Current account is usually influenced by all types of shocks, with technology shocks playing a stronger role. In particular, technology shocks play a prominent role in the existing global imbalance (the large external deficit of the United States). (4) Technology and supply-level shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between output differential and current account, whereas real and nominal-demand shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between real exchange rate and current account.

The paper analyses exchange rate regimes implemented by the major Latin American (LA) countries since the 1950s, with special attention to the period beginning in the 1970s. The aim is to evaluate the relationship between exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance. After an overview of the main trends followed by the major LA countries over the last 60 years, the paper focusses on regimes that were implemented (1) with stabilisation purposes (nominal anchor) and (2) with the aim of targeting competitive and stable real exchange rates. These sections analyse in greater detail some important links between exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance. The paper closes with an assessment of the experiences with exchange rate regimes in LA.

In this paper we re-examine whether purchasing power parity holds in the long run in China from a two-steps procedure correcting outliers and testing unit roots. Thus, the efficient unit root tests developed by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) and Ng and Perron (2001) are applied on the Renminbi bilateral (to the US dollar) real exchange rate, corrected from outliers, over the period 1970 to 2006 (in monthly frequency). We underlined the effects of large, but infrequent shocks due to changes of Chinese exchange policy undertaken since the China’s foreign exchange reform on the real exchange rate, in particular several devaluations between 1984-1994. We also show that there is no tendency to the purchasing power parity in China to hold in the long run during this period.

In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to consider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using recent advances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easily rejected against the nonlinear model for all currencies considered. Further, for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root is rejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.