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1 results

  • A note on the cost of carrier-borne, right-shift, epidemic models

  • Richard J. Kryscio, Roy Saunders
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 13 / Issue 4 / December 1976
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 652-661
    Print publication:
    December 1976

  • We establish a sufficient condition for which the expected area under the trajectory of the carrier process is directly proportional to the expected number of removed carriers in the class of carrier-borne, right-shift, epidemic models studied by Severo (1969a). This result generalizes the previous work of Downton (1972) and Jerwood (1974) for some special cases of these models. We use the result to compute expected costs in the carrier-borne model due to Downton (1968) when it is unlikely that all the susceptibles will be infected. We conclude by showing that for the special case considered by Weiss (1965) this treatment of the expected cost is reasonable for populations with a large initial number of susceptibles.