Studies on party institutionalisation commonly argue that parties with personalist leadership and weak organisation are unlikely to remain in power beyond leadership succession. In other words, these parties will rarely attain their own institutionalisation. From this perspective, the recent Italian political reality represents a conundrum. Three parties of this type – Northern League; Forza Italia; Italy of Values – confronted significant resignation issues concerning their leaders, but only the League, contrary to the theory, made a decisive step toward institutionalisation by removing its founding father and remaining an actor with national blackmail potential. This article addresses this challenge and provides a solution to this conundrum. In particular, the article demonstrates that an approach that considers both party factors and critical events is necessary to account fully for the variance of outcomes and, more generally, for party change.

Silvio Berlusconi impacted massively on Italy's party politics. He restructured the right via Forza Italia and the People of Freedom co-creating a bipolar party system whilst championing a radical personalisation of politics. The new party system appeared to rotate around him, creating an unusual version of ‘moderate pluralism’. Thus, whilst there was government alternation, there was also gladiatorial confrontation more typical of ‘polarised pluralism’. More effective as an electoral mobiliser than a government leader, Berlusconi's fourth government collapsed in the face of the 2011 economic crisis. His party, whose institutionalisation had been prevented by the extreme personalisation of his leadership, began to fall apart, whilst voter disillusion boosted support for a new party, the Five Star Movement. By 2014, it appeared that Berlusconi's major legacies were the rise of Matteo Renzi, the new Prime Minister and leader of the Democratic Party; his failure to construct an enduring, moderate conservative party; and the exceptional success of the Five Star Movement.

The general question underlying this article is how much have parties changed in Italy in the transition from the First to the Second Republic? The disintegration of the Christian Democrats (DC) in the early 1990s created a large opening on the centre-right of the political spectrum, which was promptly occupied by Forza Italia (FI). A totally new party organisationally speaking, FI, with its centralisation, its personalisation and its charismatic leadership, marked a clear break with all that the DC had represented in terms of its unrestricted pluralism based on strong factions. However, the franchise model adopted by Berlusconi's party, characterised by the co-existence of unity of command at the top, and differentiated and quasi-autonomous bodies locally, may facilitate the convergence of the parties representing the various interests and outlooks on the centre-right in the new rassemblement party that is the PdL. Through the latter, and given the new systemic conditions, Italy may achieve a transformation in the nature of the centre from Christian Democratic to conservative, enabling it to integrate most of the political right as well.