Research on advice taking has demonstrated a phenomenon of egocentric discounting: people weight their own estimates more than advice from others. However, this research is mostly conducted in highly controlled lab settings with low or no stakes. We used unique data from a game show on Norwegian television to investigate advice taking in a high stakes and highly public setting. Parallel to the standard procedure in judge–advisor systems studies, contestants give numerical estimates for several tasks and solicit advice (another estimate) from three different sources during the game. The average weight of advice was 0.58, indicating that contestants weighted advice more than their own estimates. Of potential predictors of weight of advice, we did not detect associations with the use of intuition (e.g., gut feeling, guessing) and advice source (family, celebrities, average of viewers from hometown), but own estimation success (the proportion of previous rounds won) was associated with less weight of advice. Solicitation of advice was associated with higher stakes. Together with the relatively high weight on advice, this suggests that participants considered the advice valuable. On average, estimates did not improve much after advice taking, and the potential for improvement by averaging estimates and advice was negligible. We discuss different factors that could contribute to these findings, including stakes, solicited versus unsolicited advice, task difficulty, and high public scrutiny. The results suggest that highly controlled lab studies may not give an accurate representation of advice taking in high stakes and highly public settings.

The polymer model provides a relatively simple and robust basis for estimating the standard Gibbs free energies of formation (ΔGfo) and standard enthalpies of formation (ΔHfo) of clay minerals and other aluminosilicates with an accuracy that is comparable to or better than can be obtained using alternative techniques. The model developed in the present study for zeolites entailed the selection of internally consistent standard thermodynamic properties for model components, calibration of adjustable model parameters using a linear regression technique constrained by ΔGfo and ΔHfo values retrieved from calorimetric, solubility, and phase-equilibrium experiments, and assessments of model accuracy based on comparisons of predicted values with experimental counterparts not included in the calibration dataset. The ΔGfo and ΔHfo predictions were found to average within ±0.2% and ±0.3%, respectively, of experimental values at 298.15 K and 1 bar. The latter result is comparable to the good accuracy that has been obtained by others using a more rigorous electronegativity-based model for ΔHfo that accounts explicitly for differences in zeolite structure based on differences in framework density and unit-cell volume. This observation is consistent with recent calorimetric studies indicating that enthalpies of transition from quartz to various pure-silica zeolite frameworks (zeosils) are small and only weakly dependent on framework type, and suggests that the effects on ΔHfo of differences in framework topology can be ignored for estimation purposes without incurring a significant loss of accuracy. The relative simplicity of the polymer model, together with its applicability to both zeolites and clay minerals, is based on a common set of experimentally determined and internally consistent thermodynamic properties for model components. These attributes are particularly well suited for studies of the effects of water-rock-barrier interactions on the long-term safety of geologic repositories for high-level nuclear waste (HLW).

A relatively novel approach of autonomous navigation employing platform dynamics as the primary process model raises new implementational challenges. These are related to: (i) potential numerical instabilities during longer flights; (ii) the quality of model self-calibration and its applicability to different flights; (iii) the establishment of a global estimation methodology when handling different initialisation flight phases; and (iv) the possibility of reducing computational load through model simplification. We propose a unified strategy for handling different flight phases with a combination of factorisation and a partial Schmidt–Kalman approach. We then investigate the stability of the in-air initialisation and the suitability of reusing pre-calibrated model parameters with their correlations. Without GNSS updates, we suggest setting a subset of the state vector as ‘considered’ states within the filter to remove their estimation from the remaining observations. We support all propositions with new empirical evidence: first in model-parameter self-calibration via optimal smoothing and second through applying our methods on three test flights with dissimilar durations and geometries. Our experiments demonstrate a significant improvement in autonomous navigation quality for twelve different scenarios.

The dynamics and fusion of vesicles during the last steps of exocytosis are not well established yet in cell biology. An open issue is the characterization of the diffusion process at the plasma membrane. Total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (TIRFM) has been successfully used to analyze the coordination of proteins involved in this mechanism. It enables to capture dynamics of proteins with high frame rate and reasonable signal-to-noise values. Nevertheless, methodological approaches that can analyze and estimate diffusion in local small areas at the scale of a single diffusing spot within cells, are still lacking. To address this issue, we propose a novel correlation-based method for local diffusion estimation. As a starting point, we consider Fick’s second law of diffusion that relates the diffusive flux to the gradient of the concentration. Then, we derive an explicit parametric model which is further fitted to time-correlation signals computed from regions of interest (ROI) containing individual spots. Our modeling and Bayesian estimation framework are well appropriate to represent isolated diffusion events and are robust to noise, ROI sizes, and localization of spots in ROIs. The performance of BayesTICS is shown on both synthetic and real TIRFM images depicting Transferrin Receptor proteins.

A strategy activated in one task may be transferred to subsequent tasks and prevent activation of other strategies that would otherwise come to mind, a mechanism referred to as procedural priming. In a novel application of procedural priming we show that it can make or break cognitive illusions. Our test case is the 1/k illusion, which is based on the same unwarranted mathematical shortcut as the MPG illusion and the time-saving bias. The task is to estimate distances between values of fractions on the form 1/k. Most people given this task intuitively base their estimates on the distances between the denominators (i.e., the reciprocals of the fractions), which may yield very poor estimations of the true distances between the fractions. As expected, the tendency to fall for this illusion is related to cognitive style (Study 1). In order to apply procedural priming we constructed versions of the task in which the illusion is weak, in the sense that most people do not fall for it anymore. We then gave participants both “strong illusion” and “weak illusion” versions of the task (Studies 2 and 3). Participants who first did the task in the weak illusion version would often persist with the correct strategy even in the strong illusion version, thus breaking the otherwise strong illusion in the latter task. Conversely, participants who took the strong illusion version first would then often fall for the illusion even in the weak illusion version, thus strengthening the otherwise weak illusion in the latter task.

Redundant or excessive information can sometimes lead people to lean on it unnecessarily. Certain experimental designs can sometimes bias results in the researcher’s favor. And, sometimes, interesting effects are too small to be studied, practically, or are simply zero. We believe a confluence of these factors led to a recent paper (Isaac & Brough, 2014, JCR). This initial paper proposed a new means by which probability judgments can be led astray: the category size bias, by which an individual event coming from a large category is judged more likely to occur than an event coming from a small one. Our work shows that this effect may be due to instructional and mechanical confounds, rather than interesting psychology. We present eleven studies with over ten times the sample size of the original in support of our conclusion: We replicate three of the five original studies and reduce or eliminate the effect by resolving these methodological issues, even significantly reversing the bias in one case (Study 6). Studies 7–8c suggest the remaining two studies are false positives. We conclude with a discussion of the subtleties of instruction wording, the difficulties of correcting the record, and the importance of replication and open science.

In this perspective, I give my answer to the question of how quantum computing will impact on data-intensive applications in engineering and science. I focus on quantum Monte Carlo integration as a likely source of (relatively) near-term quantum advantage, but also discuss some other ideas that have garnered widespread interest.

The distribution of human leukocyte antigens in the population assists in matching solid organ donors and recipients when the typing methods used do not provide sufficiently precise information. This is made possible by linkage disequilibrium (LD), where alleles co-occur more often than random chance would suggest. There is a trade-off between the high bias and low variance of a broad sample from the population and the low bias but high variance of a focused sample. Some of this trade-off could be alleviated if sub-populations shared LD despite having different allele frequencies. These experiments show that Bayesian estimation can balance bias and variance by tuning the effective sample size of the reference panel, but the LD as represented by an additive or multiplicative copula is not shared.

This article considers the link removal problem in a strongly connected directed network with the goal of minimizing the dominant eigenvalue of the network’s adjacency matrix while maintaining its strong connectivity. Due to the complexity of the problem, this article focuses on computing a suboptimal solution. Furthermore, it is assumed that the knowledge of the overall network topology is not available. This calls for distributed algorithms which rely solely on the local information available to each individual node and information exchange between each node and its neighbors. Two different strategies based on matrix perturbation analysis are presented, namely simultaneous and iterative link removal strategies. Key ingredients in implementing both strategies include novel distributed algorithms for estimating the dominant eigenvectors of an adjacency matrix and for verifying strong connectivity of a directed network under link removal. It is shown via numerical simulations on different type of networks that in general the iterative link removal strategy yields a better suboptimal solution. However, it comes at a price of higher communication cost in comparison to the simultaneous link removal strategy.

Thispaper addresses the problem of carrying an unknown nonuniform payload by multiple quadrotor agents. The load is modeled as a rigid body with unknown weight and position of Center of Gravity (CG) for the agents, and is included in their dynamic equations of motion. The agents and the load are assumed to be connected to each other by taut ropes. The Udwadia–Kalaba equation is used to calculate the constraint forces on the ropes acting on each quadrotor. Inner-loop and outer-loop controllers for quadrotors position and attitude control are presented. For the outer loop, an estimation algorithm based on the invariance and immersion adaptive control is utilized to estimate the unknown physical parameters of the payload including mass and CG position without using multi-axes force/torque sensors. The inner-loop controller employs an adaptive controller. Simulation results, for two and four agents carrying a nonuniform rod and cubic payload, show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. A case study is also performed to investigate the effect of quadrotors positioning on flight endurance of the cooperative aerial team carrying a nonuniform payload.