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The area under the infectives trajectory of the general stochastic epidemic
F. Downton
Journal:

Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 9 / Issue 2 / June 1972

Published online by Cambridge University Press:

14 July 2016, pp. 414-417

Print publication:

June 1972
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If the cost of an epidemic is a linear function of the number of persons infected at any time, the total cost depends upon the area under the infectives trajectory. This note uses a combinatorial argument to show that for the general stochastic epidemic the distribution of this area may be expressed in terms of the probabilities of the ultimate size of the epidemic.

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The area under the infectives trajectory of the general stochastic epidemic