A ship's grounding appears to be a significant threat to the safety of its crew, marine environment and the local ports economy. The risk of such incidents is higher in rivers since weather conditions can significantly alter the depths of channels from those shown on navigation charts. By means of a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, a new methodology is proposed, capable of evaluating the hazards of a ship's grounding in a river. The proposed method contributes to safe navigation in rivers. Navigators are able to assess grounding risk in a river passage based on local information of past incidents. The proposed methodology is used to evaluate commercial risks from groundings in the Parana River. A case study was carried out using data from 118 cases, as provided by local agencies for the period 2008–2017.