If private sector agents update their beliefs with a learning algorithm other than recursive least squares, expectational stability or learnability of rational expectations equilibria (REE) is not guaranteed. Monetary policy under commitment, with a determinate and E-stable REE, may not imply robust learning stability of such equilibria if the RLS speed of convergence is slow. In this paper, we propose a refinement of E-stability conditions that allows us to select equilibria more robust to specification of the learning algorithm within the RLS/SG/GSG class. E-stable equilibria characterized by faster speed of convergence under RLS learning are learnable with SG or generalized SG algorithms as well.

This paper examines the behavior of the finance premium after technology and monetary shocks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where borrowers use a fraction of their production (output) as collateral. We show that this simple framework is capable of producing a countercyclical finance premium, while matching the well-documented stylized facts of macro dynamics. A key feature is the endogenous derivation of the default probability from break-even conditions, which results in the loan rate being set as a countercyclical finance premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank. The latter is shown to provide an accelerator effect through which shocks can amplify the loan spread and the dynamic response of macro variables.

This paper investigates the growth experience of one country in detail in order to enhance our understanding of important factors that affect economic growth. Using a two-sector model, we identify low productivity growth in the agricultural sector as the main reason for the divergence of income per capita between Turkey and its peer countries between 1968 and 2005. An extended model that incorporates distortions in the use of intermediate goods in producing agricultural output indicates that policies that have different effects across sectors and across time may be important in explaining the growth experience of countries.

We analyze the impact of financial globalization on volatilities of hours worked and wages of high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970–2004, we establish stylized facts that document how volatilities of hours worked and wages of workers with different skill levels have changed over time. We then document that the volatility of hours worked by low-skilled workers has increased the most in response to the increase in financial globalization. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that is consistent with the empirical results. The model predicts that greater financial globalization increases the volatility of hours worked, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers.

This paper considers differential fertility and analyzes how the fertility of people caught in poverty disturbs their escape from poverty. For escape from poverty, it is necessary that the average human capital stock exceed certain thresholds before the ratio of the number of poor to rich people increases more rapidly than the human capital level of rich people. Thus, the escape depends on a race between the accumulation of human capital by the rich and the accumulation of children by the poor. A high initial ratio of the number of poor to rich people would imply persistent poverty.

Equilibrium indeterminacy due to economies of scale (ES) in financial intermediation is quantitatively examined in a monetary business-cycle environment. Financial intermediation provides deposits that serve as a substitute for currency to purchase consumption, and depositing decisions are susceptible to nonfundamental shocks to confidence. The analysis considers various assumptions on nominal rigidities and the timing of deposit decisions. The results suggest that indeterminacy arises for small ES, and the resulting confidence shocks qualitatively mimic monetary shocks. A calibration exercise concludes that U.S. economic volatility from this nonfundamental source has increased over time while volatility from fundamental sources has decreased.

This research demonstrates that international financial integration changes the way in which financial development affects inequality within a country. Specifically, both cross-country analysis and dynamic panel data analysis using data collected from more than 100 countries provide evidence indicating that if the financial market of a country is strongly closed to the world market, financial development narrows inequality within that country, whereas if the financial market of a country is strongly open to the world market, financial development widens inequality within that country. Our theoretical framework provides a possible explanation for our empirical findings.

This study documents the cyclical properties of business credit in the United States and in the Euro area and constructs a theoretical model that can successfully replicate the observed characteristics. I find that real business loans lag output; i.e., business credit is more strongly correlated with past output than with current output. Furthermore, real business loans correlate negatively with future output and investment and positively with past output and investment. I show that a fairly standard model of business and credit fluctuations with agency costs can neither generate the lagging behavior of business credit nor induce the observed cross-correlation patterns of output, investment, and business loans. I introduce a costly financial intermediation mechanism into an otherwise standard macroeconomic framework and show that the evolution of intermediary balance sheets and the interaction of intermediation and agency costs can induce the observed regularities.

This note demonstrates analytically that a persistent catastrophic shock on endowment growth, even if moderate, yields negative equity premiums when a representative agent is relatively prudent. In particular, it derives the minimum persistence necessary to have zero equity premiums.

Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance explained by foreign shocks, lowers the exchange rate pass-through, and delivers a positive international correlation of outputs. In addition, the matching of other business cycle moments is at least as good as in a model with trade in final goods only.

Emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting and that combine low credibility, high public debt, and a high interest rate suffer from a typical problem. Increases in the interest rate to reduce departures of inflation from the target imply that a higher primary surplus is required for stabilizing public debt/GDP ratio. This tricky situation is known as “unpleasant fiscal arithmetic” (UFA). This article develops a theoretical model showing how increased financial openness and capital account liberalization can mitigate UFA. Furthermore, empirical evidence from the Brazilian case through OLS, GMM, and GMM system methods is offered. The findings show that increases in capital mobility and financial openness work as a commitment technology, which contributes to the success of the inflation targeting and thus reduces the risk of UFA.