A four equation input demand system for aggregate Southeastern United States agriculture consistent with dynamic optimizing behavior is specified and estimated. Labor and materials are considered as variable inputs while land and capital are treated as quasi-fixed inputs. It is found that the adjustment rates for capital and land differ considerably and are interdependent. Further, the data appear consistent with the existence of an aggregate production technology and the hypothesized optimizing behavior.

Markov chain analysis of changes in the number and size of cotton gin firms in West Texas was conducted assuming stationary and non-stationary transition probabilities. Projections of industry structure were made to 1999 with stationary probability assumptions and six sets of assumed conditions for labor and energy costs and technological change in the non-stationary transition model. Results indicate a continued decline in number of firms, but labor, energy, and technology conditions alter the configuration of the structural changes.

The Economic Emergency (EE) loan program, administered by the FmHA, was created by Congress in 1978. The primary purpose of the program was to provide credit to farmers who were unable to obtain credit from normal lenders due to economic stress. Over six billion dollars of EE loans were extended nationally during fiscal years 1978 through 1981. This paper examines the allocation of EE loans at the state level and the expansionary effect of the program on farm credit markets. Empirical evidence is provided that EE funds were allocated to states consistently with the general criteria cited in the development of the EE program and that the EE program expanded farm credit markets rather than displacing loans from other sources.

In the past four decades, productivity in United States field crops has been transformed by the mechanical and fertilizer revolutions. Since input data are typically not available by crop, most investigations of productivity have been at the aggregate level. This paper develops a simultaneous equation, partial adjustment model of the demand for inputs, which generates estimates of the technical change parameters for wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton. These estimates allow comparisons of the factor saving biases in technical change, leading to a novel test of the induced innovation hypothesis and the suggestion that the productivity slowdown may yet affect agriculture in the United States.

Classical approaches to the economics of pest management have focused almost exclusively on single-species models. This study develops and implements a methodology with which to evaluate multi-species, non-stochastic, managerial decisions subject to stochastic elements of the plant-insect system. Multi-species insect management strategies (combinations of scouting interval, threshold value, and choice of pesticide) are analyzed using a physiological mechanistic soybean plant growth model coupled to three insect population dynamics models. Preliminary results indicate that net returns are maximized and variance is reduced with lower thresholds and more frequent scouting than current recommendations.

The adoption of multiphase electric power for electric irrigation has been limited in an area characterized by extremely rapid expansion of irrigated acreage despite production cost advantages. Theoretical and empirical evidence of failure in the existing market for multiphase power development are presented. Alternative development mechanisms are presented and discussed.

Financial analysis of an ethanol/electricity cogeneration plant indicates a rapid payback of investment and a high internal rate of return. This is primarily because cogeneration of steam for generation of electricity and biomass conversion to ethanol results in increased engineering efficiency compared to alternative ethanol alone production processes. Economic sensitivity testing included alternative price levels, interest rates, capacities, costs, and a “stand alone” case with no federal government excise tax subsidies. Supply and price analyses suggest the procurement of locally produced feedstock in Alabama and surrounding states is feasible. The robustness of the economic analysis provides support for consideration of ethanol cogeneration as a currently feasible strategy to utilize excess agricultural production capacity.

This analysis used simulation to compare the cost of intergenerational transfer of farm estates under the pre-1981 tax rules and the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA) provisions. ERTA reduces transfer costs for almost all the estates considered. Large estates tend to benefit more than small estates if they qualify for use valuation or if they are large enough to be affected by the reduction in tax rates. ERTA does not create new forces for change in U.S. agriculture, but it tends to strengthen the tendency toward larger farm size and favor those who already own farm resources.

This study develops a theoretical model of the multiproduct firm which allows for imperfect competition in the output market. Hypotheses are tested for retail meat prices concerning the degree and speed of price transmission, the effects of interfirm competition, and the interrelationship between prices within the store. Empirical results indicated that meat prices within a store were highly interrelated. Further, the firm was found to be very responsive to prices of competitors in the short run, but more responsive to wholesale price changes in the long run.

Risk Management strategies for maintaining student performance in large classes are discussed. Risk management theory is discussed and used to describe student behavior. Results of risk management experiments in which students are exposed to alternative levels of grading are reported along with other factors which influence student behavior. Class performance was not found to decline under a system involving only a 50 percent chance of assignments being graded. Procedures for implementing and limitations of chance grading systems in large classes are discussed.

Despite the contention that risk and uncertainty play an important role in agriculture in North Florida and South Alabama, very little is known about producers' perceptions of risk. This paper describes the procedures used and the results obtained from a statistically random survey of farmers' perceptions of the importance of various sources of risk and alternative risk management practices. Initially, farmers were asked to define risk and then to rank various sources of risk and management responses to risk based on the relative importance of each to their operation. Summary statistics, Chi-square analyses, and logistic regression techniques were used to analyze the data.

This study evaluated implications of increased bollworm problems in a 20-county area of the Texas High Plains relative to cotton yields and economic impact. Results did not indicate a serious effect of bollworms upon lint yield when insecticides were used for control. However, estimated annual reduction in farmer profit due to the bollworm for 1979-81 was over $30 million. Yields were estimated to decline about 300,000 bales without insecticide use and about 30,000 bales with insecticide use. This decline suggests potentially serious implications for the comparative economic position of cotton in this region if insecticide resistance were to develop among insect pests.

This paper examines the impacts of alternative management strategies for the production of alfalfa within the context of a total farm plan. A linear programming model is used to represent a 600-acre farm which can grow either grain crops or alfalfa. Alfalfa production competes with the grain crops for available land, labor, machinery, and field time over a calendar of tillage, planting, cutting, spraying, and harvesting activities. The profitability of an acre of alfalfa and the contribution of alfalfa to net returns for the farm varies quite widely depending on the particular alfalfa management strategy selected.

A hedonic price function is developed for estimating the implicit prices for selected quality characteristics of fresh tomatoes at three points in the marketing season. The estimation of this function, proposed as a method of evaluating changes in the post-harvest system, is accomplished using a flexible functional form. Those quality characteristics that most affect the price of tomatoes can help determine the economic feasibility of alternative handling techniques or new technologies.

This paper analyzes the effects of uncertain soil loss in farm planning models. A disaggregated approach was used because of an interest in examining the impact of probabilistic soil loss constraints on farm level decisionmaking. A stochastic programming model was used to consider different levels of probability of soil loss. Traditional methods of analysis are shown to consistently overestimate net returns.

The Rice Outlook and Situation (RO&S) forecasts were compared to the forecasts of a univariate Box-Jenkins (BJ) model. On balance, the RO&S forecasts had lower mean square forecast errors and lower mean absolute forecast errors than the BJ model forecasts. The differences in the squared and absolute forecast errors were not significant, however. Based on the concept of conditional efficiency as set forth by Granger and Newbold, it was found that the BJ forecasts did not add any information that might improve forecast accuracy beyond what was already incorporated in the RO&S forecasts.

Although annual rainfall in the Southeast is adequate, its distribution is a potential constraint to agricultural production. Farmers require production information concerning efficient use of irrigation technology adapted to regional growing conditions. Selection of optimal position, size, and number of pivots in center pivot irrigation systems poses special problems on small, irregularly shaped fields. In the southeastern United States, field size and shape are often varied and irregular. A mixed integer programming model was constructed to assist in irrigation investment decisions. The model is illustrated using irrigated peanut production in southeast Alabama. Results indicate the importance of economic engineering considerations.

An econometric model of planted wheat acreage was estimated for five distinct production regions in the United States. This structural investigation represents an update of previous published work with specific attention given to policy program variables, weather, production cost, risk, market price influences, and program participation. Estimated results indicated regional divergence in responsiveness to government program variables. The most significant divergence occurred in the Cornbelt and Southeast—soft red winter wheat areas. Results indicate that management of the wheat program from the USDA level will contain countervailing production incentives unless these regional characteristics are taken into consideration in policy directives.

An interregional reactive programming model of the United States dairy industry is used to test the welfare implications of several dairy program changes on milk producers, milk consumers, and taxpayers. The results showed that each of the tested alternatives (price support reduction, price support reduction with frozen minimum Class I price, assessments, and production quotas) could reduce price support expenditures substantially. However, assessments reduced expenditures most effectively in terms of cost to milk producers for the United States generally while price support reduction with frozen minimum Class I price was most efficacious in terms of cost to Southeast producers.

This paper describes four agribusiness simulators which can be processed on a microcomputer for use in undergraduate and extension teaching. The simulators model the environment in which supermarket chains, farm supply centers, and cooperative and proprietary grain elevators compete for business. Instruction manuals, user's manuals, and a diskette are distributed for each simulator. Each diskette contains programs to enter and edit team decisions, to process decisions and print reports, and to create graphs of team performance. The simulators can be used to teach financial management concepts and techniques, as well as economic principles.