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The Effect of Referendums on Autocratic Survival: Running Alone and Not Finishing Second

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 August 2023

Alberto Penadés Open the ORCID record for Alberto Penadés [Opens in a new window]  and
Sergio Velasco Open the ORCID record for Sergio Velasco [Opens in a new window]
Alberto Penadés
Affiliation:
Department of Sociology, Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
Sergio Velasco*
Affiliation:
Department of Sociology, Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain Department of Applied Economy, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
*
Corresponding author: Sergio Velasco, Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

Dictatorships that use plebiscites – that is, referendums initiated by the executive – have a longer expected lifespan. A successful plebiscite sends a signal that makes coordination for collective action more difficult and induces the falsification of preferences. It also enhances the status of the dictator within the regime and against potential rivals through the use of agenda power. As a result, plebiscites are followed by decreased mobilization and a reduced risk of palace coups. This, in turn, adds years to the dictator's tenure. We have found evidence to support these propositions by utilizing data from various databases of autocratic regimes that span from 1946 to 2008.

Keywords

authoritarianismplebiscitesreferendumsregime survivalinstitutions
Type
Article
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 59 , Issue 2 , April 2024 , pp. 405 - 424
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Government and Opposition Ltd

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