The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica host the coldest and driest ecosystem on Earth, which is acutely sensitive to the availability of water coming from glacial runoff. We modeled the spatial variability in ablation and assessed climate sensitivity of the glacier ablation zones using 16 years of meteorological and surface mass-balance observations collected in Taylor Valley. Sublimation was the primary form of mass loss over much of the ablation zones, except for near the termini where melt, primarily below the surface, dominated. Microclimates in ~10 m scale topographic basins generated melt rates up to ten times higher than over smooth glacier surfaces. In contrast, the vertical terminal cliffs on the glaciers can have higher or lower melt rates than the horizontal surfaces due to differences in incoming solar radiation. The model systematically underpredicted ablation for the final 5 years studied, possibly due to an increase of windblown sediment. Surface mass-balance sensitivity to temperature was ~−0.02 m w.e. K−1, which is among the smallest magnitudes observed globally. We also identified a high sensitivity to ice albedo, with a decrease of 0.02 having similar effects as a 1 K increase in temperature, and a complex sensitivity to wind speed.

The isothermal, non-sliding shallow-ice approximation, combined with mass conservation, is a fundamental model for ice-sheet and glacier flow. It determines the ice extent, geometry and velocity by the solution of a free-boundary problem. In this paper, the steady-state form of this problem is solved directly, without time-stepping, thereby demonstrating a fully implicit scheme with no stability restrictions. The classical Mahaffy (1976) finite difference method is first reinterpreted as a ‘finite volume element’ scheme that has both an everywhere-defined approximate thickness function and an approximation of the conservation equation in flux integral form. From this reinterpretation an improved scheme is built by using better quadrature in the integral and upwinding on that part of the flux which is proportional to the bed gradient. The discrete equations are then solved by a parallel Newton scheme which respects the constraint that ice thickness is non-negative. The results show good accuracy on both flat-bed and bedrock-step exact solutions. The method is then applied at high resolution to model the steady-state geometry of the Greenland ice sheet, using only bedrock elevation and present-day surface mass balance as input data.

A database of difficult-to-forecast natural persistent deep slab avalanches was analyzed to determine thresholds for parameters that contribute to their release in western Canada. The database included avalanche observations and weather station data. The avalanches were grouped based on their primary cause-of-release, either precipitation loading, wind loading, solar warming or air temperature warming using a multivariate classification tree, which first split using a solar warming parameter. The precipitation group had a median 24 h snowfall of 15 cm and 3 d snowfall of 38 cm at weather stations, mostly at or below treeline. These amounts were likely closer between 20–30 and 50–80 cm at alpine start zones. The wind loading group experienced the most wind-transported snow potential. The solar warming group had predicted solar warming of 5.2°C, 10 cm into the snowpack, on the days of release. The air temperature warming group experienced the highest median maximum air temperature (5°C) on the days of release. These thresholds may be useful to forecast the likelihood of similar avalanches with experienced-based forecasting or with decision aids, although many false alarms are possible. A companion paper, Part II, relates weather model data to avalanche occurrences.

For 175 difficult-to-forecast persistent deep slab avalanches, weather data were obtained from Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models produced by Environment Canada. The focus was to determine critical parameters and thresholds for avalanche forecasting from GEM and compare them with weather station data analyzed in Part I (Conlan and Jamieson, this issue). The high-resolution GEM-limited-area model (2.5 km resolution) forecasted higher median precipitation amounts than both the lower-resolution GEM15 (15 km resolution) and weather stations within a small dataset. Air temperatures were lower for both weather models compared with the weather station data, likely because of elevation differences. A multivariate classification tree created with GEM15 data correctly classified 29 of 36 avalanches by their primary cause-of-release, using a primary split of modelled solar warming of 5.9°C, 10 cm into the snowpack. For all 175 avalanches, GEM15 forecasted significantly less precipitation than observed at the weather stations, particularly with multi-day cumulative amounts. The majority of GEM15 surface wind speeds were between 0 and 10 km h−1, producing negligible wind loading amounts. The parameter values may be helpful for predicting future persistent deep slab avalanches. However, GEM output is not always representative of field conditions and should be used in conjunction with other sources.

The spatial pattern and morphometry of bedforms and their relationship to sediment thickness have been analysed in the Marguerite Bay Palaeo-ice stream Trough, western Antarctic Peninsula. Over 17 000 glacial landforms were measured from geophysical datasets, and sediment thickness maps were generated from acoustic sub-bottom profiler data. These analyses reveal a complex bedform pattern characterised by considerable spatial diversity, influenced heavily by the underlying substrate. The variability in length and density of mega-scale lineations indicates an evolving bedform signature, whereby landforms are preserved at different stages of maturity. Lineation generation and attenuation is associated with regions of thick, soft till where deformation was likely to be the greatest. The distribution of soft till and the localised extent of grounding-zone wedges (GZWs) indicate a dynamic sedimentary system characterised by considerable spatio-temporal variability in sediment erosion, transport and deposition. Formation of GZWs on the outer shelf of Marguerite Trough, within the error range of the radiocarbon dates, requires large sediment fluxes (upwards of 1000 m3 a−1 (m grounding line width)−1), and a >1 m thick mobile till layer, or rapid basal sliding velocities (upwards of 6 km a−1).

Mega-scale glacial lineations (MSGLs) are highly elongate subglacial bedforms associated with ice streaming. However, the link between MSGLs and rapid ice flow is largely qualitative, and there have been few attempts to quantitatively link their formation to ice flow characteristics (e.g. ice velocity, thickness, basal shear stress). We take measurements of MSGLs from a palaeo-ice stream that once occupied Marguerite Trough, Antarctic Peninsula and explore a range of possible correlations with ice dynamics generated from an ensemble of numerical modelling experiments that reproduce the deglaciation of the ice stream. Our results confirm that high mean ice velocities and a weak bed correlate with longer MSGLs. Furthermore, the height of MSGLs are low (2–3 m) where modelled basal shear stress is low, but their height tends to be higher and more variable where basal shear stress is larger. The mean density of MSGLs decreases as ice flux increases. Our analysis further suggests that the length of MSGLs is a function of basal ice velocity and time. Although our data/model correlations confirm the importance of ice velocity in MSGL formation, a significant challenge remains if we are to employ MSGLs as a quantifiable measure of past ice stream velocity.

While the terms ‘glacier’ and ‘ice cap’ have distinct morphological meanings, no easily defined boundary or transition distinguishes one from the other. Despite this, the exponent of the power law function relating volume to surface area differs sharply for glaciers and ice caps, suggesting a fundamental distinction beyond a smoothly transitioning morphology. A standard percolation technique from statistical physics is used to show that valley glaciers are in fact differentiated from ice caps by an abrupt geometric transition. The crossover is a function of increasing glacier thickness, but it owes its existence more to the nature of the underlying bedrock topography than to specifics of glacier mechanics: the crossover is caused by a switch from directed flow that is constrained by surrounding bedrock topography to unconstrained radial flow of thicker ice that has subsumed the topography. The crossover phenomenon is nonlinear and rapid so that few if any glaciers will have geometries or dynamics that blend the two extremes. The exponents of scaling relationships change abruptly at the crossover from one regime to another; in particular, the volume/area scaling exponent will switch from γ = 1.375 for glaciers to γ = 1.25 for ice caps, with few, if any, ice bodies having exponents that fall between these values.

The skill of degree-day glacier melt models is highly dependent on the choice of degree-day factor (DDF), which is often assumed to remain constant in time. Here we explore the validity of this assumption in a changing climate for two locations on Vestari Hagafellsjökull (1979–2012) using a surface energy-balance (SEB) approach that isolates the effect of changes in the prevailing weather on the DDF. At lower elevation, we observe stable DDF during the period of study; however, at higher elevation, DDF is noted to be more variable and a statistically-significant downward trend is observed. This is found to result from an inappropriate threshold air temperature (Tcrit) from which to initiate the positive-degree-day sum, and is removed by setting Tcrit to −1.83°C, rather than the usual value of 0°C used in degree-day melt models. The stationarity of DDF once Tcrit is adjusted contradicts previous research and lends support to the use of constant DDF for projecting future glacier melt. Optimizing Tcrit also improves the skill of melt simulations at our study sites. This research thus highlights the importance of Tcrit for both melt model performance and the evaluation of DDF stationarity in a changing climate.

Several airborne radar-sounding surveys are used to trace internal reflections around the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C and Vostok ice core sites. Thirteen reflections, spanning the last two glacial cycles, are traced within 200 km of Dome C, a promising region for million-year-old ice, using the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics High-Capacity Radar Sounder. This provides a dated stratigraphy to 2318 m depth at Dome C. Reflection age uncertainties are calculated from the radar range precision and signal-to-noise ratio of the internal reflections. The radar stratigraphy matches well with the Multichannel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) radar stratigraphy obtained independently. We show that radar sounding enables the extension of ice core ages through the ice sheet with an additional radar-related age uncertainty of ~1/3–1/2 that of the ice cores. Reflections are extended along the Byrd-Totten Glacier divide, using University of Texas/Technical University of Denmark and MCoRDS surveys. However, core-to-core connection is impeded by pervasive aeolian terranes, and Lake Vostok's influence on reflection geometry. Poor radar connection of the two ice cores is attributed to these effects and suboptimal survey design in affected areas. We demonstrate that, while ice sheet internal radar reflections are generally isochronal and can be mapped over large distances, careful survey planning is necessary to extend ice core chronologies to distant regions of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

In nature, when hazardous geophysical granular flows (e.g. a snow avalanche) impact on an obstacle as they stream down a slope, rapid changes in flow depth, direction and velocity will occur. It is important to understand how granular material flows around such obstacles in order to enhance the design of defense structures. In this study, a three dimensional (3-D) Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) model is developed to simulate granular flow past different types of obstacles. The elastic–perfectly plastic model with implementation of the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is applied to simulate the material behavior, which describes the stress states of soil in the plastic flow regime. The model was validated by simulating the collapse of a 3-D column of sand with two different aspect ratios; the results showed that the SPH method is capable of simulating granular flow. The model is then applied to simulate the gravity-driven granular flow down an inclined surface obstructed by a group of columns with different spacing, a circular cylinder and a tetrahedral wedge. The numerical results are then compared with experimental results and two different numerical solutions. The good agreements obtained from these comparisons demonstrate that the SPH method may be a powerful method for simulating granular flow and can be extended to design protective structures.

The ability to perform microbial detection and characterization in-field at extreme environments, rather than on returned samples, has the potential to improve the efficiency, relevance and quantity of data from field campaigns. To date, few examples of this approach have been reported. Therefore, we demonstrate that the approach is feasible in subglacial environments by deploying four techniques for microbial detection: real-time polymerase chain reaction; microscopic fluorescence cell counts, adenosine triphosphate bioluminescence assay and recombinant Factor C assay (to detect lipopolysaccharide). Each technique was applied to 12 subglacial ice samples, 12 meltwater samples and two snow samples from Engabreen, Northern Norway. Using this multi-technique approach, the detected biomarker levels were as expected, being highest in debris-rich subglacial ice, moderate in glacial meltwater and low in clean ice (debris-poor) and snow. Principal component analysis was applied to the resulting dataset and could be performed in-field to rapidly aid the allocation of resources for further sample analysis. We anticipate that in-field data collection will allow for multiple rounds of sampling, analysis, interpretation and refinement within a single field campaign, resulting in the collection of larger and more appropriate datasets, ultimately with more efficient science return.

Results of numerical simulations of co-axial deformation of pure ice up to high-strain, combining full-field modelling with recrystallisation are presented. Grain size and lattice preferred orientation analysis and comparisons between simulations at different strain-rates show how recrystallisation has a major effect on the microstructure, developing larger and equi-dimensional grains, but a relatively minor effect on the development of a preferred orientation of c-axes. Although c-axis distributions do not vary much, recrystallisation appears to have a distinct effect on the relative activities of slip systems, activating the pyramidal slip system and affecting the distribution of a-axes. The simulations reveal that the survival probability of individual grains is strongly related to the initial grain size, but only weakly dependent on hard or soft orientations with respect to the flow field. Dynamic recrystallisation reduces initial hardening, which is followed by a steady state characteristic of pure-shear deformation.

The structural evolution of snow under metamorphism is one of the key challenges in snow modeling. The main driving forces for metamorphism are curvature differences and temperature gradients, inducing water vapor transport and corresponding crystal growth, which is detectable by the motion of the ice/air interface. To provide quantitative means for a microscopic validation of metamorphism models, a VTK-based image analysis method is developed to track the ice/air interface in time-lapse μCT experiments to measure local interface velocities under both, isothermal and temperature gradient conditions. Using estimates of local temperatures from microstructure-based finite element simulations, a quantitative comparison of measured interface velocities with theoretical expressions is facilitated. For isothermal metamorphism, the data are compared with a kinetics and a diffusion limited growth law. In both cases the data are largely scattered but consistently show a mean curvature dependency of the interface velocity. For temperature gradient metamorphism, we confirm that the main contribution stems from the temperature gradient induced vapor flux, accompanied by effects of mean curvature as a secondary process. The scatter and uncertainties are discussed in view of the present theoretical understanding, the experimental setup and complications such as mechanical deformations.

To improve our knowledge of glacier area changes in the central Chilean and Argentinean Andes (32°9′S–33°4′S), two new glacier inventories from 1989 to 2013/14 are compared with a reinterpreted inventory from 1955. Comparisons show glacier area retreat of 30 ± 3% since 1955, decreasing from 134 to 94 km2 in 2013/14, whilst the annual rate of area loss showed a small increase (insignificant) between the periods of 1955–1989 and 1989–2013/14. Separate analysis of the 1989 and 2013/14 inventories, including a larger sample, revealed a higher rate of glacier change compared with the smaller samples of these inventories. Additionally, an analysis at ~5 year intervals for six major glaciers (1955–2013) indicates large variability in response times and area loss magnitudes. Glacier Olivares Alfa, for example, lost 63% of its ice area, while the Juncal Norte Glacier lost only 10% (1955–2013). The findings from this study improve our current knowledge base concerning widespread glacier decline in the southern Andes, and furthers monitoring efforts in this poorly described region of the world, a region containing vital water resources for populated areas in South America.