II - Impact

4 Scenarios and Surprises When Change Is the Only Given¹

Annika E. Nilsson and Simo Sarkki

Introduction

The vision of the Arctic as a treasure chest of natural resources has gained renewed traction in recent years due to a combination of climate change, expectations of increasing global demand, and geopolitical concerns about securing the supply of critical innovation metals. This increasing interest often stems from global and national perspectives on the Arctic. While regional authorities and some local communities welcome the potential for new job opportunities and economic investments, concerns about the long-term sustainability of extractive industries have also led to conflicts over land use and criticism about the lack of sufficient dialogue with Indigenous peoples, not least in the Nordic Arctic (Koivurova et al., 2015; Bjørst, 2016; Lawrence & Larsen, 2017; Beland Lindahl et al., 2018; Dannevig & Dale, 2018; Harnesk, Islar, & Stafström, 2018; Magnusson & Dale, 2018; Zachrisson & Beland Lindahl, 2019; Österlin et al., 2023, see Chapter 5). Such conflicts raise questions about who has a legitimate right to define sustainable development in a local and regional context. The level of conflict between different interests suggests a lack of legitimacy of current impact assessment processes and has also led to calls for approaches that take a more holistic view of the environmental and social impacts compared to current decision frameworks (Karvinen & Rantakallio, 2019). The need for improved assessment processes concerns the quality of the knowledge base for politically negotiated decisions about mining and related industries but also relates to calls for transparency and equal participation for those who are or would be affected by the decisions.

The aim of this chapter is to discuss how exploratory scenario methods could be used in the context of improving assessment processes related to mining. We argue that scenario exercises have the potential of involving local and regional actors in the visioning of Arctic futures in ways that would not only provide a broader view of the role of extractive industries for the future of a region but also include attention to the social, environmental, and technological uncertainties that are unavoidable when trying to assess the long-term impacts of mining. We discuss some limitations of current scenario approaches based on a synthesis of published scenarios of possible Arctic futures, summarize key insights from a series of participatory scenario workshop focusing on local views of sustainable development, and use this as a base to suggest steps for improving participatory scenario methods. We thereby specifically add attention to the potential impacts of so-called wild-card developments. We furthermore suggest that insights from such improved scenarios can be used for exploring how both known drivers of change and surprises may affect the dynamics of social-ecological-technological systems to provide more holistic and proactive assessments of the impacts of extractive industries.

Exploratory Scenarios of Arctic Futures

Exploratory scenarios have been used widely for a few decades to understand the dynamics of change in situations of uncertainty and can also be used for exploring how large-scale drivers might affect local developments (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005; van Vuuren et al., 2012). The scenarios are not projections or predictions of the future but describe various alternative plausible futures and provide schematic descriptions of how the future might unfold under a logic framed by variations in key drivers of change. Because they outline plausible development paths without being policy prescriptive, they are useful for assessing the robustness of different policy options in situations of uncertainty about the drivers of change that are in focus (Kok, Biggs, & Zurek, 2007).

There is a large number of published scenarios that explore potential Arctic futures in light of climate change and various visons of industrial development in the region (for reviews, see Arbo et al., 2012; Nilsson, Bay-Larsen, Carlsen et al., 2017a; Erokhin & Rovenskaya, 2020). However, while some general insights about the role of extractive industries can be gleaned from the scenario literature, none of the published scenarios explicitly targets the relationships between extractive industries and Arctic local communities. Furthermore, many scenario narratives focus on a limited set of mainly large-scale drivers of change and pay limited attention to the impact of surprises (Nilsson et al., 2019). Surprises are here seen as “wild cards”: imaginable and concrete events or developments that may seem unlikely but could have wide-ranging impacts if they became a reality (Fergnani, 2021).

In our review of insights from already conducted scenario exercises, we first classify five published Arctic scenario narratives under general scenario archetypes (Harrison et al., 2019) in order to draw out some insights that relate specifically to extractive industries. We then add nuance to the discussion about drivers of change by drawing on local perspectives from nine bottom-up scenario exercises that have been conducted across the Nordic Arctic, and we then elaborate on some potential wild cards that are relevant for different scenario archetypes.

Scenario Archetypes

Taking a starting point in a review of Arctic scenarios by Erokhin and Rovenskaya (2020) and adding relevant additional published scenarios, we have selected five scenario sets for further analysis based on their relevance for resource extraction. The following studies were selected: Loe et al. (2014) present three scenarios for business opportunities in the Arctic in 2020 with a special focus on petroleum, mining, seafood, and shipping based on workshops and in-depth interviews with business leaders and Arctic experts. Brigham (2007) presents four narratives exploring implications of major drivers of Arctic change, including increasing natural-resource extraction activity. Lazariva et al. (2021) combine desktop research with a series of in-depth interviews and seminars with key stakeholders and develop four narratives for the Arctic until 2050. Haavisto et al. (2016) present six narratives for the Eurasian Arctic by 2040 focusing on the development of shipping, resource extraction, and tourism industries based on a literature review, pre-survey, and an expert workshop. Burkhart, Seadas, and Wichmann, (2016) present four narratives exploring two critical uncertainties: global oil price and Arctic governance, based on interviews with government officials, industry leaders, Indigenous groups, and scientists.

The selected scenario sets were organized according to six scenario archetypes proposed by Harrison et al. (2019). The archetypes are business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. To capture the breadth of Arctic scenario narratives, we added one more archetype, which we call Frozen development. This scenario type was identified based on the Arctic scenario exercises we reviewed. The results of the analysis are summarized in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1. Arctic scenario narratives typologized under general scenario archetypes (Harrison et al., 2019) and their implications for relationships between extractive industries and Arctic local communities

Global Scenario archetypes	Arctic scenarios narratives	Implications for natural resource extraction in the Arctic	Potential implications for local communities in the Arctic
Business-as-usual: Moderate population and economic growth; Persisting inequality; Markets and institutions are stable.	“Managed boom” (Burkhart et al., 2016)	Extensive extractive activities while some sustainability norms are in place governing economic activities.	Some conflicts; Moderate regulation of extractive projects where local communities are mainly engaged via impact assessments.
Economic optimism High economic growth; Low regulation; Population growth low; Reactive attitude to environmental problems; Efficient technologies.	“Free for all” (Burkhart et al., 2016) “Globalized frontier” (Brigham, 2007) “Oil in demand” (Loe et al., 2014)	International access to Arctic resources, and growing interest in extractive industries; Lack of regulation; Rising global prices of minerals intensify extractive activities but may lead to conflicts and environmental damage.	Indigenous and local people benefit from employment opportunities; Economic growth; Due to low regulation, traditional livelihoods and ecosystems tend to suffer.
Regional competition Social fragmentation; Competition, instability erode international trade and cooperation; Emphasis on national and regional self-sufficiency; Technological innovation low.	“Polar lows” (Burkhart et al., 2016) “Wild west” (Haavisto et al., 2016) “Age of discovery” (Lazariva et al., 2021) “Fortress frontier” (Brigham, 2007) “Re-freeze” (Loe et al., 2014)	Intensive development of extractive industries; Arctic states guard their resources; Low and fragmented regulation; Rush to resources makes Arctic more and more profitable and attractive for private investors, and related risks are covered by states; Escalating climate crisis.	Development driven by large/multi-national corporations and resources are mostly privatized; Local livelihoods deteriorate; Indigenous peoples and their claims are ignored; Arctic society splits: urban communities and professional opportunity-seekers flourish, while Indigenous peoples suffer.
Regional sustainability Local and regional policy focusing on welfare, equality, and environmental protection; International collaboration low; Technological innovation and economic growth moderate but uneven.	“Isolated Arctic” (Burkhart et al., 2016) “Equitable frontier” (Brigham, 2007) “Shangri La” (Haavisto et al., 2016)	Extractive projects sustainable; Multi-level regulation is clear and equitable; Efficient resource extraction; Respect for carrying capacity.	Conflict-free Arctic; Indigenous rights; More income for local communities also from extractive projects; Good prospects for local livelihoods.
Global sustainable development High cooperation and top-down governance with proactive regulation for the environment; Rapid innovation in green and resource-efficient technologies.	“Renaissance” (Lazariva et al., 2021) “Adaptive frontier” (Brigham, 2007) “Green Transformation” (Loe et al., 2014) “Silicon Valley” (Haavisto et al., 2016)	Balanced sustainability and strong regulation of extractive projects. Incentives for sustainable technologies; Oil and gas not used; New clean technologies boom; Corporate Social Responsibility; Economic growth does not increase environmental footprint.	Fly in fly out workers; Indigenous peoples maintain traditional ways of life, languages, and cultures, and are participating in the decision-making processes. However, socio-cultural aspects may lag behind due to strong focus on economy and environment.
Inequality Political and business elites have most power, leading to increasing economic, political, and social inequalities and fragmentation.	“Exploited colony” (Haavisto et al., 2016) “Conflict zone” (Haavisto et al., 2016) “Dark ages” (Lazariva et al., 2021)	Fierce competition over resources; Short-term profits drive resource extraction; Companies seen as pillars of national economy; Rules and regulations weak; Deep-sea mining; Decreasing opportunities for diversification and new market development; Economy based on extractive industries.	Conflicts between native people, immigrant workers, and public authorities; High influx of workers to the area because of increased employment possibilities leading to hub-based development and urbanization; Arctic becomes a depopulated and devastated industrial site. Indigenous people assimilate and out-migrate.
	Frozen development “Antarctic” (Haavisto et al., 2016) “Romanticism” (Lazariva et al., 2021)	Very strict environmental regulation as risks related to the impacts of Arctic resource exploitation are considered too high; Arctic is turned into a sanctuary; Only sustainable energy and transport, no mining or extractive projects.	Traditional livelihoods flourish, ecotourism brings external revenue; Economic activity has been limited to sustainable fishing and herding, local crafts, and sustainable tourism; Indigenous peoples maintain their traditional way of life and receive social payments; Lack of economic opportunity and declining living standards lead to out-migration of professionals and the urban population.

The scenario archetypes have varying implications for the relationship between extractive industries and local communities: While “Economic optimism” may bring benefits for Arctic communities, it also implies the undermining of traditional livelihoods. The “Regional competition” and “Inequality” scenarios have mostly negative implications for local communities. Sustainability at global scale appears to be beneficial also for Arctic communities but includes a risk that the economy and global environment are emphasized at the expense of local socio-cultural issues. At its extreme, a focus on environmental sustainability may even lead to a situation where economic activities in the Arctic are banned.

Insights from Participatory Scenario Exercises

To complement the synthesis of Arctic scenarios, we draw on insights from a series of scenario exercises based on a method to develop so-called extended shared socio-economic pathways (Nilsson et al., 2017b). The method includes asking the participants an open question: What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally, and socially within the perspective of one to two generations? The question guided nine participatory scenario exercises that were conducted between 2015 and 2020, covering various local contexts across the Nordic Arctic, with and without mining or proposed mining activities. These were held in Sweden: in Pajala in 2015 (Nilsson, Carlsen, & van der Watt, 2015) and in Kiruna in 2019 (Nilsson, 2020); in Norway: in Bodø in 2015 (van Oort, Bjørkan, & Klyuchnikova, 2015) and 2020, and in Alta in 2018; in Greenland: in Ilulissat in 2018 and in Narsaq in 2019; (Vangelsten et al. 2022); and in Finland: in Inari in 2015. In addition, one workshop was conducted in Kirovsk, Russia (2015) (van Oort et al., 2015) (Figures 2.1 and 2.2). The methodology provided the participants with an opportunity to brainstorm freely in relation to the open question about what future changes may influence the region, followed by a conversation in which local drivers of change were discussed in relation to various global development paths in the so-called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (O’Neill et al., 2017). The SSPs are narratives of potential global futures that were developed to provide a base for assessing challenges to climate mitigation and adaptation. A major contrast between the local scenario exercises and the scenarios reviewed in our literature synthesis was the focus on drivers of change that were deemed especially relevant for local and regional development paths, as envisioned by the participants in the exercises. The results thus provide a different perspective than the scenarios of circum-Arctic futures (see Table 4.1) that often focus on larger-scale developments.

For the analysis in this chapter, the raw data from the brainstorming exercises was compiled according to the categories of drivers that guided the development of the global SSPs (Nilsson, 2021). Our analysis was then guided by eight generic components of social-ecological-technological systems as elaborated by (Nilsson, Avango, & Rosqvist, 2021a): the abiotic environment, biodiversity and ecosystem, technical artifacts, social networks and demography, actors and agency, markets, knowledge, and institutions. Based on the analysis, we selected four overarching themes to discuss in more detail: market demand, politics and power relations, demographic trends, and technology. They were selected because they appear to be relevant in shaping the future of the Nordic Arctic regardless of the specific economic, cultural, and political context in each scenario exercise location, and, furthermore, they relate to key features of social-ecological-technological systems that are especially relevant for understanding the expansion of extractive industries. In the following text we explore these issues in more detail.

Extraction of resources in the Nordic Arctic would not happen without expectations of market demand. Historically, this demand has shifted many times, leading both to local boom economies and to bust cycles with abandoned mining towns or towns in economically dire situations (Huskey, Mäenpää, & Pelyasov, 2014; Malmgren et al., 2023, see Chapter 11; Sörlin et al., 2023, see Chapter 2). As long as the local economies are narrow, which is often the case in the Arctic, this dependency is likely to continue. With growing awareness about the need to radically cut emissions of greenhouse gases, expectations of market demand for Arctic resources are now overlaid with a larger-scale technological shift away from the hegemony of fossil-fuel energy, which is still in high demand, to an increasing demand for some metals and for wind and solar power. Consumer preferences may play some role in this shift. In several scenario exercises, issues related to lifestyle choices were mentioned, which may affect what products and services would be desired, for example the demand for electric vehicles, travel habits, and dietary diversity. Another and potentially more important driver of this shift is technical innovations, which are often supported by politically decided economic incentives, such as public investments and tax structures. They thus link to an ongoing shift in overarching social norms at the national and international levels about the importance of mitigating climate change, including the uncertainties and the social negotiations that are inherent in major normative shifts. Another recurring issue in scenario exercises was attention to the potential of tourism and the tourism market’s demand for Arctic environments with pristine nature and quiet surroundings.

While many industrial actors expect mining to expand, the local scenario discussions also included concerns about what may happen when a specific mine is no longer economically viable. Even slight shifts in market conditions can affect the profitability of a mine, and the consequences could be major if the local social-ecological-technological system is not resilient, as witnessed by Arctic ghost towns that were once lively mining settlements (Keeling & Sandlos, 2017; Malmgren et al., 2023, see Chapter 11). However, expectations of increasing demand can have equally large implications locally if they lead to new or expanding mining activities. Expectations can raise hopes among unemployed youth but also lead to competition over the available labor force. As mining plans materialize, expectations can also create demand for new housing, a need for local investments in infrastructure, as well as in-migration that changes the social dynamics of a place.

Expectations of future demand (increasing or decreasing) are interlinked with political ambitions (environmental as well as industrial) and geopolitical considerations that may affect permit processes and public investment in supporting infrastructure. A strong message from the local scenario exercises was that the participants saw power relations as central to how the local future might develop. Furthermore, many people who took part in the exercises expressed that power over local futures lies somewhere else, in the national capital or among transnational corporate actors. Power often relates to institutional structures that support extractive activities because they are framed as valuable from national and international perspectives. Meanwhile, local and regional power is in practice often limited in decisions about extractive industries in the Nordic Arctic. But some local power exists. In Norway, municipalities have a veto. In Sweden, national interests (riksintressen) weigh heavily but those are many. Furthermore, local voices often have less economic and narrative clout than industrial actors, which is critical in deciding whose narratives drive processes of “development.” However, an ongoing change in norms with implications for power relations is the increasing recognition of Indigenous rights in international law. For example, scenario exercise participants in a workshop that mainly included young reindeer herders saw future development and its local implications as uncertain but important for Indigenous livelihoods and recognition of Indigenous knowledge, as well as for the sense of inclusiveness in local societies.

Often, the power of people who live in the north seems to lie mainly at the personal level, in decisions about whether to move or stay. A place must be attractive to live in, as highlighted by one workshop participant in Kiruna, while the importance of incentives to “come back” was mentioned in the scenario workshop in Alta. Demography thus becomes a central concern, with issues ranging from settlement pattern/urbanization to concerns about out-migration of young women and an aging population. The question that follows is whether extractive industries make a place more attractive both in the short and long term. The answers are likely to differ depending on who you are: age and gender play a role but also education (Can I get the relevant education? Do my skills fit the new job market?), and personal affinity to a place, where both the natural environmental and social networks are important. Demographic patterns and changes in them are thus critical factors to consider in assessing the potential impacts of extractive industries, as has also been highlighted in a proposal about issues to include in social impact assessments (Suopajärvi & Jungsberg, 2016).

Another demography-related issue that was brought up in several scenario exercises was in-migration and its potential impacts on the local society. Sources of such influx were discussed primarily in relation to the global movement of people, including worldwide migration and climate refugees but also people coming in from other countries to work in extractive industries or the tourism sector. The impacts of extractive industries on society have been, and will likely continue to be, reflected in the demography of the Nordic Arctic: where people live and who they are. Historic examples include the ghost town created when mining has ceased and when a decline in the workforce led to the tearing down of housing during a downturn in demand (Keeling & Sandlos, 2017; Malmgren et al., 2023, see Chapter 11), but there are also less dramatic examples, such as how the opening of a mine near Pajala, near the border between Sweden and Finland, reversed the earlier population decline in the municipality. Another example is how the current industrial boom in northern Sweden has led to demands on politicians to provide incentives for people to move north (Lindberg, 2021). The potential for increased job opportunities in traditional outmigration regions has also been an argument for more mining in policy discussions and in impact assessments (Nilsson et al., 2021).

Technology, including communication and transport infrastructures, is another factor that can be decisive for shaping the future of the Nordic Arctic. In the past, the development of infrastructure has been a precondition for expanding the extraction of non-renewable resources in the Nordic Arctic. This affects not only mining but the potential for economic development more generally, for example, in relation to tourism, where roads and railroads create access to places that can otherwise be difficult to reach. The 500-kilometer-long railroad from Luleå on the Gulf of Bothnia via the inland Arctic mining town Kiruna to Narvik on the Atlantic coast is a case in point.

For future development, digitalization is likely to play an increasingly important role both for mining operations and for society in general. One development highlighted in a scenario exercise was that virtualization and digitalization of industrial processes could pave the way for remote operations. An example from the scenario exercise in Kiruna is the idea that knowhow from a long history of mining could remain an asset even if the local ore was no longer economically viable to mine, as Kiruna could instead became a remote hub for mining operations elsewhere. “Local” mining knowledge could become a key asset in shaping a town’s future, even if the local mine was no longer in operation. However, remote operation of mining in the Arctic could potentially also lead to fewer local mining jobs and thus to outmigration. Another aspect of digitalization relates to the fact that media narratives about the Arctic often emerge from global and national perspectives, where social media are now providing venues for local voices to also be heard (Nilsson & Christensen, 2019).

These are just some of the issues that local people in the north see as critical for shaping local futures, aside from the impacts of climate change with its wide-ranging implications for the temperature and precipitation patterns that shape the region’s ecosystems. In the workshops, the potential consequences of climate change that were raised included both the risk of food shortages and new possibilities for regenerative agriculture and renewable natural resources. The local scenario exercises thus point to a broader set of issues than discussed in the reviewed published scenarios of Arctic futures. They also point to issues that are not necessarily covered in environmental impact assessments, where the focus is often on specific environmental concerns and other issues regulated by law (Nilsson et al., 2021).

What If?

In the recent past, development in the Arctic has been characterized by surprises that have changed political expectations (the fall of the Soviet Union), economic structures (Iceland’s financial crash), basic features of the Arctic environment (the dramatic decline in Arctic Ocean sea ice with the sea ice minima in 2007 and 2012 as events with geopolitical implications), and the Covid-19 pandemic with severe impacts on the tourism industry. Exploratory scenarios aim to take the possibility of future surprises into account, and, inspired by discussions during bottom-up scenario exercises and recent trends in the discourse on mining, we have identified several “wild card” or “what if” questions that are important in discussing possible Arctic futures. “What if” questions link to imagining the unexpected. They can help to prepare people for extreme future events by pushing the boundaries of conventional thinking to include the unlikely and to cope with alternative futures (Hukkinen, 2008). Wild cards are low probability and high impact events or developments that can be used to enrich scenario narratives by including a broader view of underlying uncertainties. With a focus on the links between extractive projects and local-regional development in the Nordic Arctic, and inspired by the scenario exercises, we suggest wild cards connected to the scenario archetypes from our earlier review of existing scenario narratives, see Table 4.2.

Table 4.2. Wild cards, their links to scenario archetypes, and implications for extractive projects and local communities in the Arctic (by authors)

Wild card/ target year	“What if” question	Links between extractive industries and local communities	Links to scenario archetypes
Battery 2040	What if global demand for minerals explodes due to developments in green technology and battery technology?	A strong political focus on climate mitigation leads to a dramatic expansion of mining in the Nordic Arctic, supported by public investments and streamlined permit processes. Local communities cannot say no to mining but derive some benefits, including jobs opportunities and local economic upswings. There is some recognition that the green transition can have negative effects for traditional livelihoods, but it is generally believed that these can be compensated (see Green Deal and Just Transition Mechanism).	Side effects of “Global Sustainability”
Power flip 2040	What if strong Indigenous rights are mainstreamed across all policy sectors and levels?	Extractive projects require consent from Indigenous organizations in the Nordic Arctic. Benefits from extractive industries go to Indigenous people and impacts on Indigenous livelihoods and ways of life are mitigated by agreements reached in negotiations where Indigenous rights and Indigenous knowledge are fully recognized. However, non-Indigenous local people, including other local minorities, do not have a strong voice, resulting in social tensions.	Indigenization and “Regional Sustainability”
Climate migration 2060	What if adverse impacts of climate change escalate globally and lead to millions of refugees?	Climate change creates millions of refugees from southern countries, with large-scale in-migration to northern regions where summer temperatures are still reasonable. In some places, receding glaciers create new opportunities for extractive projects. Some migrants find work in extractive projects while others develop new ecosystem-based livelihoods, including food production. This increases the pressure on the ecosystem base for traditional livelihoods and on Arctic biodiversity, but the region is overcrowded, and other sources of income are hard to find.	Impacts of “Inequality” and climate crisis
After exploitation 2060	What if Arctic minerals and oil and gas deposits are extracted until they end?	Arctic minerals are heavily used until they are exhausted or no longer economically viable. After the boom, many local economies collapse. Heavy exploitation has created toxic environmental legacies and disrupted ecosystems. Some easily accessible ghost towns now function as sites for dark “industrial” ecotourism. Prospects for traditional livelihoods are degraded and people mainly live in urban centers. The outcome is an empty rural Arctic, while urban centers manage to survive based on other economic activities, many of which require advanced education.	After “Economic optimism” and “Inequality”
Gender balance 2040	What if gender relations become balanced in Arctic extractive projects?	Extractive industries offer attractive employment opportunities for women, which changes the trend of brain drain caused by young women moving out from the Arctic. As a result, the social dynamics of mining towns change, creating demographically more viable communities.	Gender and “Regional Sustainability”
Automat 2040	What if extractive industries become fully automated?	Technical advances combined with a need to cut costs lead to increasing automation in extractive industries. In many places, the promise of new local jobs never materializes, but in places with strong know-how and human capital local mining knowledge becomes a resource for export and for creating advanced industrial innovation hubs.	“Economic optimism” and technologization

None of these scenarios may play out as they are suggested in the table. In some cases, strong economic and political interests may be at stake to halt the development, and in other cases social inertias and technological lock-ins may halt or delay a certain course of development. However, they illustrate that no future is inevitable. It is also worth noting that surprising impacts of climate change play a role in only one of these narratives (climate migration) and that additional wild card future narratives could be developed based on dramatic changes in the global climate and its environmental and political implications.

Discussion and Future Directions

A major purpose of exploratory scenarios is to imagine the space of uncertainty to be able to better navigate change, either by adapting within the overarching logic of the current context or by managing a transition to something new. Extractive industries have played a prominent role in shaping northern regions by creating socio-technical systems that include technical hardware, institutions, and actor networks (Avango et al., 2019). Given their impact on land use and thus the environment, it is appropriate to also discuss social-ecological-technological systems impacts (Nilsson et al., 2021). Given strong path dependencies, the ongoing discussion about a green transition with its expectations of increasing demand of metals may cement this logic. However, there are also discursive struggles about what is acceptable in terms of environmental costs and impacts on Indigenous peoples’ livelihoods, where international norms play a much stronger role today than they did when mining expanded in the Nordic Arctic during the 1900s (Koivurova & Petrétei, 2014; Lawrence & Larsen, 2017; Bay-Larsen, Skorstad, & Dale, 2018). Together with the likelihood of surprises caused by climate change, geopolitical developments, technical innovations, or economic fluctuations, it is thus risky to take the past as a template for assessing the sustainability of mining. We instead suggest that it is necessary to better understand the social, ecological, and technological processes that shape the Nordic Arctic and the potential for changes in feedback mechanisms that could lead either to adaptations within the current logic of the relationships that shape interactions between people and between people, the environment, and technology, or to major transformations. Both possibilities could profoundly influence the sustainability of local communities.

Institutional path dependencies, including persistent legal frameworks and constellations of powerful interests, have played an important role in shaping the Nordic Arctic over the past century, partly through the sociotechnical systems related to mining (Avango et al., 2019; Keskitalo, 2019). The stability of the current logic and structure cannot be taken for granted, however. In the literature on Arctic change, both resilience and the possibility of transformative shifts in feedbacks and structures have been discussed extensively, but the focus in the resilience literature has, so far, mainly been on ecological and social processes (e.g., Arctic Council, 2016). In the literature on resilience and transitions, the role of technologies as an important link between between social and environmental processes has received increasing interest (Smith & Stirling, 2010; Ahlborg et al., 2019) but has not been central in the discussions about Arctic change. Given the importance of industry and infrastructure in shaping northern regions, it should be.

Allington et al. (2018) have shown that participatory scenario exercises can be useful for modeling social-ecological systems in settings that include researchers from different disciplines as well as local and regional actors with tacit knowledge of the context in which they live and work. Specifically, they showed that local and regional actors brought up drivers of change that the external experts had not identified, and that an iterative approach that included both system dynamics modeling and scenario exercises forced all the participants to make their assumptions and tacit knowledge explicit. Based on these experiences, we suggest that scenario approaches could also be useful for understanding the role of technologies for societies and environments, including those related to extractive industries. The idea would be to use insights from the scenario exercise to improve the understanding of possible future interactions and feedbacks across different parts of a regional social-ecological-technological system. For example, they could guide the analysis of how potential changes might affect feedback loops, potentially leading to radical changes for local communities or whole regions. If carried out in an inclusive participatory setting with local and regional actors, such an approach could make both the visioning of Arctic futures and impact assessments not only more transparent but also inclusive of a wider range of perspectives and knowledges. Adding “what if” questions to such exercises would assist in exploring how robust the base is for sustainable local and regional development. Mining-related “what if” questions can be used for specifically exploring whether the presence or absence of extractive industries would support or erode the social, ecological, and technological base for sustainable local and regional futures.

Exploratory scenarios do not resolve conflicts and are unlikely to lead to consensus about extractive industries. Nor is this their purpose. However, they could serve as tools for developing more holistic assessments of the impacts of mining on sustainable development. Furthermore, they could contribute to more transparency of assessment processes and to the quality of the knowledge base for politically negotiated decisions about mining and related industries.

5 Cumulative Effects on Environment and People

Carl Österlin

¹, Hannu I. Heikkinen , Christian Fohringer , Élise Lépy ², Gunhild Rosqvist

Introduction: Multiple Pressures cause Cumulative Effects

Industrial extraction of natural resources and appropriation of land and freshwater areas have led to degraded ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, and extinction of species (IPBES, 2019). The negative effects have often resulted from a history of local changes in the use of land and freshwater resources (Chhabra et al., 2006). Improved management of such resources has therefore become an urgent global concern. In this chapter we address how resource extraction, and particularly mining, has impacted traditional land and freshwater use in the Arctic region Fennoscandia. We use the multiple pressures concept (e.g., Holsman et al., 2017) to explain how effects from seemingly independent human activities have accumulated and now interact with climate change. To illustrate this, we use examples from reindeer herding in Laevas Sámi Reindeer Community (SRC) in northern Sweden, and salmon fishing along the Kemijoki river valley in northern Finland (Figure 5.1).

Figure 5.1 Overview of Arctic Fennoscandia, Laevas Sámi Reindeer Community, and the Kemi River catchment area.

Drawn by Christian Fohringer

Environmental assessments have generally been focusing on the impacts of individual industrial or infrastructure projects (Atlin & Gibson, 2017), while less attention has been paid to the combined cumulative effects from multiple types of pressures. This is scientifically problematic, as the focus on individual projects disregards the accumulating, synergistic, or antagonistic effects that the complex interaction between multiple types on pressures in fact may cause (Jones, 2016). It is also ethically problematic because the combined impacts of both historical and proposed human disturbances on species or ecosystems may be downplayed or masked by focusing on individual projects. In this context, a pressure can be defined as the “result of a driver-initiated mechanism (human activity/natural process) causing an effect on any part of an ecosystem that may alter its environmental state” (Oesterwind, Rau, & Zaiko, 2016: 11). The direct impacts from changes in land or freshwater use may be relatively minor in isolation, but their cumulative effects may significantly change the environmental status of ecosystems. As assessments of impacts from individual industrial projects tend to focus on the local environment, cumulative effects on the larger land- and seascape level are often missed. Therefore, cumulative effects from multiple pressures often remain overlooked in land use planning and natural resource management, despite their potential severity (Bidstrup, Kørnøv, & Partidário, 2016; Atlin & Gibson, 2017; Rosqvist et al., 2023, see Chapter 6).

Arctic Fennoscandia is a resource-rich region with valuable ore minerals such as iron and copper, vast forested areas, and topographic gradients allowing for hydropower developments. The mountains, rivers, cold winter climate, northern lights, and Sámi culture also attract tourists (Rosqvist et al., 2020; Bungard, 2021). It is also a region where reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) and salmon (Salmo salar) are keystone species defining their ecosystems. These two species seasonally migrate over large distances and therefore represent a unique composition of different ecosystems in this Arctic region (CAES, 2002; LaMere, Mäntyniemi & Haapasaari, 2020). Both reindeer herding and salmon fishing are culture-bearing activities that have shaped identities and provided livelihood for residents in Arctic Fennoscandia for centuries. Traditional herding of migratory semi-domesticated reindeer is an integral part of indigenous Sámi culture, which was developed in a pristine type of landscape without competition from industrial activities (Brännlund & Axelsson, 2011). Similarly, availability of suitable spawning areas in unregulated free-flowing rivers was a prerequisite for the historical abundance of wild Baltic salmon (Karlsson & Karlström, 1994).

The increasing demand for iron and copper drove the establishment of large-scale mining in Arctic Fennoscandia at the end of the nineteenth century (Avango et al., 2019). The mining industry required efficient transport systems and a vast amount of energy. A railroad was built connecting inland mines in Sweden with the Baltic and Atlantic coasts (Hansson, 1998). Energy was at first produced locally using charcoal. To facilitate the increased power needs, the Swedish state constructed a system of major hydropower plants and dammed the headwaters of the Lule river (Figure 5.1) (Hansson, 2006; Avango et al., 2023, see Chapter 10). Similarly, to supply the growing forest industry in northern Finland with electricity, several major rivers were harnessed for hydropower, for example, Kemijoki, and vast reservoirs were built (Figure 6.1) (Lähteenmäki, 2006). Successively, industrial “mega-systems” were formed in both countries during the twentieth century (e.g., Hansson, 1998; Avango et al., 2019).

Once established, the mega-system functions allowed for more industrial development. The transport infrastructure has also stimulated development of inland and mountain area tourism (Lähteenmäki, 2007; Byström, 2019). Both forestry and damming significantly impacted the spawning of Baltic Salmon and decreased and fragmented reindeer pastures (Magga, 2003). The damming of Lule river was completed with disregard to Sámi opposition and negatively impacted reindeer herding, as the dammed river interrupted migration routes, fragmented landscapes, and flooded grazing areas that were lost or became inaccessible (Össbo, 2014).

Laevas: Impacts on Reindeer Herding

Reindeer have provided vital ecosystem services to humans in the region since the last ice age. In Sweden and Norway, reindeer herding is typically practiced by the Indigenous Sámi people. In contrast, all EU citizens can practice reindeer herding in Finland if accepted by the local herding community. In Russia, reindeer herding is also practiced by multiple ethnic groups (Forbes & Kumpula, 2009). Reindeer herding relies on extensive access and distribution of key reindeer habitat. Its vulnerability depends on the reindeer migration strategy, which can be distinguished into two main types in Fennoscandia: large-scale longitudinal migration between coastal/montane habitat and boreal forest, or small-scale circular migration within boreal forest habitats (Tyler et al., 2021). The varying need for space and access to different habitats means that also neighboring SRCs may be subject to variable degrees of vulnerability depending on the disturbances from anthropogenic activities. Today, reindeer herding in Sweden is practiced by fifty-one SRCs, and their grazing area spans over nearly half of Sweden.

Prior to the onset of resource exploitation, the semi-domesticated reindeer of Laevas SRC could migrate over large distances between winter pastures in the eastern forested lowlands and summer pastures in the western mountains and their neighboring SRC (Figure 5.1). The boundaries for Laevas SRC, once determined based on natural borders such as rivers and mountain ridges, form a geographic bottleneck where reindeer migration corridors aggregate. This bottleneck coincides with the location of the expansive mining town Kiruna, where mining commenced in the late nineteenth century and induced a cascade of subsequent infrastructural developments (Figure 5.2). The formation of the mega-system of which Kiruna is part led to increased appropriation of land that in turn encroached and fragmented pastures and led to a loss of key migration corridors.

Figure 5.2 Timeline illustrating the establishment of industrial developments since their onset on Laevas Sámi Reindeer Community’s grazing grounds from 1900 to present. Grey text represents mines and quarries, while black text represents other infrastructural developments associated with mining. Arrows indicate the ongoing operation of mines. Line breaks indicate changes within development and single dates indicate the establishment and gradual build-up of a factor. Dates refer to the commissioning and further continuation of anthropogenic developments and activities that are considered to have reduced reindeer pasture availability. Gradual changes of land use factors include general dating, e.g., the intensification of forestry or when Kiruna and the Kirunavaara merged.

(Modified from Fohringer et al., 2021, People and Nature)

Current anthropogenic activities within Laevas SRC include mining, establishment of wind farms, clear-cutting of forest, roads, railroads, tourism, military activity, as well as contested pastures with a neighboring reindeer herding community (Fohringer et al. 2021). These anthropogenic activities also generate disturbance zones for reindeer, causing avoidance behavior beyond the activity itself (Polfus, Hebblewhite, & Heinemeveret, 2011). By applying a conservative 500-meter buffer representing the disturbance zone around anthropogenic developments (Figure 5.3), reindeer pastures were shown to have rendered at least 34 percent of Laevas SRC’s of their total area and 64 percent of winter pastures functionally unavailable to grazing (Fohringer et al., 2021). This substantial reduction of available grazing areas is highly concerning for Laevas SRC, especially regarding the winter pastures. Winter is a naturally limiting season for reindeer during which they depend largely on forest ecosystems to provide food – terricolous and arboreal lichens (Heggberget, Gaare, & Ball, 2002; Sandström et al., 2006). However, lichen-abundant forests were shown to have decreased by approximately 70 percent across Swedish reindeer herding territory since the 1950s as a consequence of industrial forestry (Sandström et al., 2006; Berg et al., 2008; Horstkotte & Moen, 2019). Therefore, loss of winter grazing areas is particularly threatening for SRCs, such as Laevas.

Figure 5.3 Laevas Sámi Reindeer Community (dark grey) in the Swedish portion of Sápmi (light grey), the homeland of the Sámi people, overlapping disturbance zones, based on 500-meter buffers and total area of factors encroaching Laevas SRC’s grazing grounds. Grey shades intensify by accumulation of land use from multiple factors. Migration corridors are included as black lines to illustrate where impacts are most pronounced.

(Modified from Fohringer et al., 2021, People and Nature)

Climate change contributes significantly to the accumulating pressures and deteriorating conditions in winter grazing areas, as weather and snow conditions strongly determine temporal and spatial grazing opportunities for reindeer (Kivinen et al., 2012; Turunen et al., 2016; Rosqvist et al., 2022). Air temperature has increased during all seasons over the past sixty years in northern Sweden (Berglöv et al., 2015). The largest temperature increase has occurred during the coldest winter months (December–February). An increase in winter precipitation amounts was recorded during the past thirty years compared to the reference period (1961–1990) (SMHI, 2019a, 2019b). The amount of precipitation falling when the temperature was above 0°C during winter (December, January, February) has also increased, especially at locations in the eastern lowlands toward the Baltic coast.

Results from a study of the impacts from rapidly changing weather and snow conditions on Laevas SRC show that rain-on-snow and high snow accumulation events are particularly disruptive, preventing access to lichens and inhibiting migration, respectively (Rosqvist et al., 2022). As a result, transport of trapped reindeer with trucks toward suitable pastures increases during times of weather-imposed stress and is sometimes necessary to complete migration past the centrally located hotspot of accumulated land use. Reindeer often disperse when snow conditions inhibit grazing in the mountains, which also requires a more frequent use of helicopters to locate and gather them. Due to more frequent land- and climate change-induced emergency situations there is an increasing need to supplementarily feed reindeer, a non-traditional practice that is both expensive and increases the risk of infectious diseases (Tryland et al., 2019; Horstkotte, Lépy, & Risvoll et al., 2020). The effects from accumulating land use and weather changes have now exerted so much pressure that the reindeer number of the Laevas SRC herd can only be maintained if fewer animals are being slaughtered, which results in loss of household income (Fohringer et al., 2021).

Reindeer herders have traditionally responded to weather-induced grazing limitations by employing flexible herding strategies, that is, by guiding their reindeer to alternative forests providing terricolous and/or arboreal lichens (Brännlund & Axelsson, 2011). This adaptive capacity needs to increase when climate warming continues (Berglöv et al., 2015; Meredith et al., 2019; Rosqvist et al., 2022). Instead, there is a high risk that this capacity will be reduced due to competing industrial land use in the eastern forested lowlands (Österlin, 2020).

Kemijoki: Cumulative Effects and Salmon Fishing

The Baltic salmon is a subspecies of Atlantic Salmon that forms an important part of coastal and riverine ecology in northern Fennoscandia. It is a “keystone species, providing irreplaceable ecosystem services in both marine and freshwater environments” (LaMere et al., 2020: 2). Salmon is also one of the traditional key resources for Sámi culture (Hiedanpää et al., 2020), and Baltic salmon fishing is one of the oldest traditional livelihoods in the area (Vilkuna, 1974) (Figure 5.1). Baltic salmon is still a very important natural resource for coastal and riverine settlements of the remaining unregulated rivers such as the Torne. The cumulative impacts of industrial and economic developments throughout the twentieth century have caused a decline in Baltic salmon stocks (HelCom, 2021).

The decline of the Baltic salmon stock was a result of almost simultaneously accumulating failures in open sea, offshore, and riverine management policies after the mid-twentieth century. One result was overfishing. The efficiency of fishing fleets increased, while at the same time the salmon stock was threatened by fish diseases, and hydropower development and concomitant inland developments endangered the spawning grounds of the Baltic salmon (Karlsson & Karlström, 1994; Romakkaniemi et al., 2003; LaMere et al., 2020). Throughout the Baltic Sea drainage area, approximately seventy rivers supported salmon spawning before its industrialization, with forty of these rivers located in Sweden and seventeen located in Finland (Karlsson & Karlström, 1994). After the expansion of hydropower and consequential destruction of habitats, only twenty-nine rivers flowing into the Baltic sea supported salmon spawning at the end of the twentieth century. Today, wild salmon only occur in fourteen rivers draining into the northernmost part of the Baltic Sea (ICES, 2020). Another cumulative impact source is the high nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) load from waste waters and upstream sources that are contributing to the overall eutrophication of the Baltic sea (HelCom, 2021). As a result of accumulated impacts, 80–85 percent of all Baltic salmon stock is reared and released from fish-farms, and only 15–20 percent originates from naturally spawning salmon (Coalition Clean Baltic, 2021). Here we focus particularly on how industrial development has resulted in devastating cumulative effects on salmon stocks in the Kemijoki catchment area and concomitant fishing traditions of riverine settlements.

Kemijoki has the largest catchment area in Finland that drains into the Baltic Sea. The catchment covers 51,127 square kilometers of a sparsely populated area (Figure 5.1). Numerous tributaries are regulated by hydropower plants, making it one of the most heavily regulated rivers in Arctic Fennoscandia. The lowest discharge typically occurs in winter when watercourses are frozen, and precipitation accumulates as snow. The highest discharge occurs during the spring thaw (HelCom, 2011a; Huusko et al., 2018), which also makes flood protection an important local issue.

Large-scale industrial development occurred after the second world war in the Lapland region of northern Finland. Industry and infrastructure were then rebuilt after the destruction caused by the retreating German army. The reparations payments to the Soviet Union speeded up the expansion of, for example, the timber industry. Impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems began to accumulate fast (Lähteenmäki, 2006). The Kemijoki and its tributaries had been used since the nineteenth century for timber floating (Vilkuna, 1974) but also the floating increased rapidly after the Second World War, which itself necessitated major changes, damming and dredging of rivers and rapids (HelCom, 2011b; Krause, 2011). However, salmon fishing – a very important traditional livelihood for centuries for riverine settlements, especially in a form of weir fishing (Figure 5.4) – continued despite the heavy disturbance caused by timber floating. For example, 184 weir fishing dams were documented in the Kemijoki system between 1869 and 1870, and the salmon catch could be up to 3,390 kilograms per day per weir (Vilkuna, 1974).

Figure 5.4 Fishing weir in Kemijoki Tervola, 1922.

Photo V. Jääskeläinen, Finnish Heritage Agency, Ethnographic Picture Collection, FINNA

The overall expansion of economies necessitated improvements of infrastructure. The construction of hydropower plants along the Kemijoki from 1945 onward was particularly devastating for salmon and traditional weir fishing (Vilkuna, 1974). The need for hydropower was connected to the concomitant industrialization of Finland and particularly to the development of paper and pulp industry areas along the coast. The development of northern Finland was justified in a level of industrialization of the whole nation (Lähteenmäki, 2007). Large-scale harnessing of the majority of the river valley for industrialization led to emigration; for example, people from seven Sámi and Finnish villages had to move, and 750 reindeer grazing ranges and forty farms were flooded when two large reservoirs were built (Lähteenmäki, 2006). The establishment of the reservoirs were therefore particularly devastating for local reindeer herding (Magga, 2003). Disappointment for local habitants about the induced environmental changes resulted in a long struggle for a fish stocking obligation for the power companies, political movements for building fish ladders, and the so called rapid wars to save the last remaining free tributaries of Kemijoki (Suopajärvi, 2001; Krause, 2015).

Today the combined pressure exerted from human activities is very high in the Kemijoki catchment area. Salmon stocks are maintained by large annual compensatory release of hatchery-raised smolts by the power companies along the river (Romakkaniemi et al., 2003; Huusko, 2018). Since the 1980s, approximately “615,000 reared salmon have been stocked at the river mouth as a compensation for the lost wild reproduction” (HelCom, 2011a).

Future Outlook: Will Pressures Continue to Increase?

Reindeer and salmon are keystone species that require large, interconnected land- or seascapes in the form of a green/blue infrastructure. If these connections are broken, then reindeer and salmon, and the cultures and ecosystem functions that depend on them, will be negatively impacted. As reindeer and salmon are users of large geographic areas, they also bear the brunt of all the multiple pressures they are exposed to in these areas. In this chapter we have shown how the formation of industrial mega-systems has led to an accumulating appropriation of land and water areas that has reduced connectivity between ecosystems and the size of grazing and spawning areas. Which, in turn, have negatively impacted reindeer herding and salmon fishing, which are both also traditional livelihoods and bearers of local and indigenous cultures. However, assessments of impacts from industrial activities far too often singlehandedly focus on impacts on a project-by-project basis (Atlin & Gibson, 2017) rather than the aggregated cumulative effects over a larger area. To reindeer and salmon, the impact of just one industrial project, assessed in isolation, and often deemed by impact assessments as only causing minor disturbances (Rosqvist et al., 2023, see Chapter 6), is in reality not a minor impact when aggregated together with all other pressures.

With one of the largest mineral extraction sites in Europe located in the narrowest section of its hourglass-shaped pastures, the cumulative impacts in the Laevas SRC are unique. Still, the de-prioritization of reindeer herding in favor of extraction of minerals or hydropower is experienced in many places, and Laevas SRC is not alone in struggling with increasing pressure from industrial encroachments on pastures. Many reindeer herding communities in Sweden bear witness to how pressures are mounting (e.g., Lawrence & Larsen 2019; Österlin & Raitio 2020; Larsen et al., 2021). The story is the same also for reindeer herding communities in Norway (Lien, 2023, see Chapter 12) and Finland (e.g., Kivinen, 2015; Landauer et al., 2021) and also for Nenets in Arctic Russia (Forbes et al., 2009). The problems are in essence the same; traditional pastoralism developed in a landscape with a low degree of industrial impact now experiences increasing encroachments. As most types of industrial developments cause irreversible effects in terms of land conversion, the pressure is continuously accumulating. The effects of climate warming challenge reindeer across the Arctic, and regional weather patterns determine which parameters are most critical. Often a combination of changes in temperature and precipitation cause problems, for example, rain-on-snow events or heatwaves in summer causing droughts. Challenges are now mounting for reindeer herding communities because mitigation of and adaptation to changes in weather and snow demand high flexibility in reindeer land use, which is increasingly hampered by the expanding industrial footprint.

The ambition to reach carbon neutrality has inspired the governments of Sweden and Finland to promote generation of renewable energy, further mineral exploitation, and intensification of forestry in Arctic Fennoscandia. Building a low-carbon future is claimed to require minerals for production of batteries for electric vehicles, renewable energy sources, and new infrastructure developments (e.g., European Commission, 2018), which is now being implemented both in Finland and Sweden through various programs. To decrease import dependency from outside the EU there is an ambition to increase mining of “critical minerals” within the EU (European Commission, 2008). As northern Finland and Sweden constitute one of the core mining areas within the EU, it is very likely that the pressure to exploit more mineral resources in the region will continue to increase.

In Finland, further exploitation occurs in the Kemijoki catchment area, especially in the area around Sodankylä (Figure 6.1) where, for example, the Kevitsa copper and nickel mine has recently opened (Boliden AB), and the multi-metal Sakatti mine (Anglo-American Ltd) is under licensing procedures. Large scale wind power developments are emerging as well on the northern Finnish coast (Yle News, 2020; Finnish Wind Power Association, 2021). Therefore, pressures on riverine and coastal salmon stocks, and salmon fishing for livelihood and recreation, continue to increase.

Currently, there are several applications for mining concessions in permit processes in Sweden (e.g., Boliden Mineral AB for Laver K nr 1; Beowulf Mining Ltd for Kallak K nr 1 Permit issued March 22, 2022). Production of fossil-free steel is planned by “Hydrogen breakthrough Ironmaking Technology” and “H2 Green Steel” in the vicinity of Luleå . These new developments require large amounts of fossil-free energy, possibly produced by wind turbines placed on reindeer winter grazing areas. Thus, both future exploitation of minerals and production of fossil-free energy could continue to reduce the size of pastures and the connectivity between remaining pastures. We fear that predicted future climate changes, together with an increasing resource extraction and industrial developments will cause further and harmful cumulative effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in this region. Climate stress on reindeer will increase because climate scenarios predict higher temperatures and increased winter precipitation in Arctic Fennoscandia. By integrating experience-based and scientifically collected data, Rosqvist et al., (2022) showed high vulnerability of reindeer herding to further warming and that adaptation to especially severe snow conditions will be hindered by further exploitation of minerals and forests. Likewise, remaining salmon stocks are not only threatened by pollution and changes in hydro-regulation for energy production but also by higher water temperatures and climate change mitigation policies (Jonsson & Jonsson, 2009; LaMere et al., 2020). For example, Baltic cod is spreading northward in the Baltic Sea, possibly due to higher water temperatures, which may increase the predation pressure on salmon post-smolts (Friedland et al., 2017). Climate change mitigation policies, particularly policies for reducing the use of fossil fuels, may increase price peaks for hydropower as renewable energy. This may lead to hydropeaking – releasing of pulses of water to meet electricity demand – which may change behavior, mortality, and spawning of the Baltic salmon (Ashraf, 2020; LaMere et al., 2020).

If the goal is to avoid, or at least mitigate, longlasting effects on the environment and people, the governments of Sweden and Finland need to ensure adequate assessments of cumulative effects from proposed industrial activities in order to be thoroughly informed before prioritizing between different potential futures. Potential impacts that may arise from industrial or societal projects on environment and people need to be assessed on appropriate temporal and spatial scales, including the total effects from climate change with the impacts following climate change mitigation policies. A more holistic perspective would allow decision-makers to keep a better balance between further resource exploitation and resilience of ecosystems such as, for example, those represented by reindeer and salmon.

6 How Should Impacts Be Assessed?

Gunhild Rosqvist , Hannu I. Heikkinen , Leena Suopajärvi ¹, Carl Österlin ²

Industrial development and resource exploitation in Arctic Fennoscandia cause cascading and cumulative effects with roots that go back to mining in the late nineteenth century (Österlin et al., 2023, see Chapter 5). Mining of iron, copper, and other minerals and metals is a major industry today in northern Sweden and Finland. The increasing demand for minerals and metals to facilitate a “green transition” is a challenge for environmental management but also comes with social impacts. Indigenous and local Arctic communities are highly dependent on the natural environment for their livelihoods, which are now at risk because of the effects of resource extraction and climate change. In this chapter we discuss limitations of the current impact assessment procedures in this resource-rich region. We also present local attempts to provide additional knowledge and understanding of the full impact from multiple human activities beyond conventional corporate-led impact assessments needed for sustainable land use management.

Impact assessment (IA) is a process used to consider the implications for the environment and people of proposed human actions (International Association of Impact Assessment, 2021). The terms “impact” and “effect” are frequently used synonymously. The concept of “environment” in IA evolved from an initial focus on the biophysical components to a wider definition, including the physical-chemical, biological, cultural, and socio-economic components of the total environment. In order to predict expected future consequences of possible decisions, the practice of IA needs to rely on several tools based on both natural and social sciences. However, IAs are not assessments of impacts in the true sense of the word, as at the time of assessments there are no impacts to assess. Their ontology is more like that of a hypothesis, with estimates, models, and future scenarios presented based on selected elements of current knowledge (Suopajärvi, 2013; Olofsson, 2020). The results from the theoretical assessment approaches are then “tested” in the real world “living laboratories.” Social impacts are, by definition, expected or unexpected (Vanclay, 2002, 2003; Vanclay et al., 2015).

The most established aspect of IA is the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which is defined by the International Association of Impact Assessment as “the process of identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the biophysical, social, and other relevant effects of development proposals” (IAIA, 2021). Today, EIA is the main legally based tool used to predict impacts on environment and communities of individual industrial projects, regardless of whether they are in the field of mining, infrastructure construction, or energy production (e.g., Glasson & Thierval, 2019; Euroepan Union (EU) Directive 2001/42/EC). In contrast, forestry does not require any assessment of impacts in Sweden and Finland.

The EIA directive of the (EU) is implemented by EIA Law (252/2017) and Decree (2017/277) in Finland. In Sweden, the EIA Directive is implemented by the Environmental Code (SFS 1998:808) and the Ordinance on Environmental Impact Assessments (SFS 1998:905). In general, the EIA legislation of both countries follows the wording of the EIA directive of EU with its amendments (e.g., Directive 2014/52/EU, article 3). It states that:

The environmental impact assessment shall identify, describe and assess in an appropriate manner, in the light of each individual case, the direct and indirect significant effects of a project on the following factors: (a) population and human health; (b) biodiversity, with particular attention to species and habitats protected under Directive 92/43/EEC and Directive 2009/147/EC; (c) land, soil, water, air and climate; (d) material assets, cultural heritage and the landscape; (e) the interaction between the factors referred to in points (a) to (d).

The “polluter pays” principle is applied in the EIA legislation, and the company applying for a permit for resource extraction or construction has the leading role in assessing impacts resulting from the proposed activities, typically by contracting a consultancy for assessment.

Both the EU-level EIA directive and national laws are unclear about how cumulative effects should be assessed and what should be included in assessments of social impacts (EU Directive 2001/42/EC). Cumulative effects typically refer to changes to the environment and people that are caused by the combined impact of past, present, and future human activities and natural processes (Duinker et al, 2013). Even if the EIA legislation recognizes many kinds of impacts on humans, Social Impact Assessments (SIA) have often been limited and focused on predicted, and at times even wishful, impacts on employment and economic benefits (Suopajärvi, 2013). In addition, the requirements for how cumulative effects should be assessed, especially effects on Indigenous communities, have been criticized for being unclear and even “non-existent” in Sweden (Raitio, Allard, & Lawrence, 2020: 12).

Large-scale spatial planning is primarily conducted through two planning instruments in Sweden, the “Comprehensive plans” (Planning and Building Act 2010:900) and “Areas of national importance” (Environmental Code 1998:808 chap 3 & 4). Comprehensive plans are established by municipalities to provide long-term strategic guidance on how land and water resources should be used. There are fourteen categories of “Areas of national importance,” and these are appointed by twelve different governmental agencies, for example the Energy Agency, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Sámi Parliament with the intention to safeguard access to land for particular sectorial interests. For example, areas can be appointed for nature protection, mineral resources, energy generation, and reindeer herding. When “Areas of national interest” overlap, priorities among them are made at the municipal level or in the local environmental courts.

In Finland, land use planning is controlled and reconciled mainly through a procedure complying with the Land Use and Building Act (132/1999). The act is connected to other legislation originating from the Constitution of Finland (731/1999), which sets the fundamental responsibilities and rights to participate in decision making toward one’s living environment, and which is supplemented by the EIA directive of the European Union (Kokko et al., 2014: 9–17). Land use planning is conducted by public authorities such as municipalities and regional councils supervised by governmental bodies such as the Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment (ELY centers), and the Ministry of the Environment (2021). There are three main levels of land use planning in Finland; (1) the Government decision on Finland’s national land use guidelines, (2) the Regional plan and land use planning, which includes the regional scheme, the regional plan, and the regional development program, and (3) the land use strategies and programs within the municipality where a local master plan and a local detailed plan, land policy, and building ordinance are the most important (Ministry of the Environment of Finland, 2021).

Local Initiatives to Improve Impact Management

Accumulation of impacts over time in Arctic Fennoscandia is caused by the long-term exposure to multiple industrial cycles. The impact assessment process follows the polluter pays principle, where the developer of individual projects is responsible for including an EIA in their permit application to the regulating authorities. Thus, assessments of impacts from new industrial projects mainly focus on near future direct impacts from single projects (e.g., Atlin & Gibson, 2017) without considering the accumulation of effects over time or interaction with effects resulting from other human activities or natural processes. Next in this chapter we present examples of local initiatives (Figure 6.1) in response to the poor performance of the legally binding IA processes, especially the dissatisfactory management of cumulative effects and lack of inclusion of local knowledge in the process (Karvinen & Rantakallio, 2019).

Figure 6.1 Overview of Arctic Fennoscandia and the location of sites mentioned in the text.

Drawn by Carl Österlin

With the aim to reveal the full range of impacts from industrial developments on their livelihood, Laevas, Gabna, and Semisjaur-Njarg Sámi reindeer herding communities (SRC) in Sweden produced their own assessment of cumulative effects based on detailed analysis of their land use needs, so-called reindeer herding analyses (Nilsson et al., 2014; Larsen, 2018; Nilsson & Blom, 2018). The need for this kind of assessment of locally accumulating land use disturbances is also a sign of poor functioning of national and regional level land use planning instruments. However, the municipal level is a very important local land use planning forum. In principle, municipalities may try to control their own economic development via, for example, local detailed plans. Our case example from Sodankylä municipality in Finland, which covers 12,415 square kilometers and has a population of 8,243 people and a population density of 0.7 inhabitants per square kilometer, will exemplify how challenging it may be to control its own fate in the real world with multiple historical and concomitant developments (Österlin et al., 2023, see Chapter 5). To fully understand and manage the multiple pressures from cumulative impacts by new industrial projects, Sodankylä municipality included local stakeholders, representatives from mining companies, and scientists in a participatory process with the aim to co-produce a Social Impact Management plan (SIMP), which forms our second major case (Sodankylä Municipality, 2018).

Cumulative Effects on Reindeer Herding

A particular concern for reindeer herding communities in Arctic Fennoscandia has been how mining activities interact and add on to effects from other types of resource exploitation such as forestry and energy production. To assess the impacts of mining on reindeer land use, specific reindeer herding analyses have in a few cases been included in EIAs for mining projects in northern Sweden. So far, these have been conducted on a voluntary basis as their inclusion is not mandatory. Yet, the results from these voluntary corporate assessments have so far not resulted in proper acknowledgment of cumulative effects on reindeer herding (Larsen, 2018). As a response, members of SRCs have conducted their own analyses with the aim to estimate impacts from new mining projects and the cumulative impacts from all types of land use change. Here, we present two such efforts by the SRCs Laevas, Gabna, and Semisjaur-Njarg (Figure 6.1).

The development of the mining industry and the growth of associated infrastructure and urbanization around Kiruna have resulted in a significant reduction of the grazing areas used by Laevas and Gabna SRCs (Fohringer et al., 2021), and they therefore conducted a series of community-led assessments of cumulative impacts on their pastures. They produced a handbook (LKAB, Laevas, & Gabna samebyar, 2015) on how to best assess cumulative effects on reindeer herding in collaboration with representatives from the state-owned mining company Loussavaara Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag (LKAB), which operates the majority of mines in the Kiruna area. They also conducted an impact assessment of one specific mining exploitation at Leveäniemi, forty kilometers south-east of Kiruna (Nilsson et al., 2014) and a larger assessment of cumulative impacts (Nilsson & Blom, 2018) on the lands used by both Laevas and Gabna SRCs. These assessments included mapping of previous extraction sites (mines, quarries), transport infrastructure (railroads, roads), wind turbines, power lines, and facilities for tourism, as well as disturbance zones around these activities (Skarin & Åhman, 2014).

The results show that additional encroachments from industrial activities would have serious direct and indirect environmental and social impacts (Table 6.1) and revealed a high vulnerability to further loss of winter grazing areas and interruptions of migration routes. Laevas and Gabna SRCs also raise concern over increased dependency on supplementary feeding as this may threaten animal welfare (Tryland et al., 2019; Horstkotte, Lépy, & Risvoll, 2020).

Table 6.1. Direct and indirect environmental and social impacts on reindeer herding in Laevas SRC from a proposed mine in Leveäniemi according to Nilsson et al. (2014)

Direct effect	Indirect effect	Economic/social/cultural impact
Loss of grazing areas	Increased pressure on remaining winter grazing areas and winter groups. Grazing areas can then only support the herd for a shorter period of time; therefore, the mountainous grazing areas need to be used more and cause more grazing pressure there	Potential need to reduce the number of reindeers Potential need to reduce the number of reindeers
Loss of migration routes	(not stated)	(not stated)
Loss of resting pastures	(not stated)	(not stated)
Increase in number of traffic accidents	(not stated)	Reduced herd size Loss of income
Re-routing of snow mobile tracks	New tracks contribute to disperse reindeer	Increased workload to prevent dispersal and keep the herd gathered
New powerlines reduce grazing areas	Powerline clearings tend to be used as snowmobile tracks that further disperse reindeer	Increased workload to prevent dispersal and keep the herd gathered
Pollution from mineral dust	(not stated)	(not stated)

Their main conclusion is that if industrial area expansion continues, traditional reindeer herding practice, that is, freely grazing animals seasonally migrating between pastures, is impeded. A quote captures the problem at hand: “Grazing areas is a critical resource for the SRC and when grazing areas shrink and alternative pastures disappears, then the possibility to adapt disappears too” (Nilsson et al., 2014: 13). Some 350 kilometers further south, reindeer herders from Semisjaur-Njarg SRC oppose the potential opening of the, so far, largest open-pit copper mine in Sweden. Here the mining company Boliden AB has applied for a permit to develop the Laver mine, which is located close to Älvsbyn (Figure 6.1) (Avango et al., 2023, see Chapter 10). Due to the prospect of drastically negative effects on reindeer and discontent from the SRC with the assessment of effects on reindeer herding in the corporate-led EIA by Lindeström and Eriksson (2014), Semisjaur-Njarg SRC conducted a detailed reindeer herding analysis with support from scientists specializing in impact assessments (Lawrence & Larsen, 2016). The baseline information, including the sum of existing encroachments in their winter grazing pastures, was derived through a mapping exercise. Subsequently, assessments of impacts from the mining were made for two scenarios: (1) the mining project is not realized or (2) the proposed new Laver copper mine is realized. Results show that even if pressure would continue from cumulative impacts from, for example, forestry and predators in the no-mine scenario, the SRC at least stand a chance to adapt and continue with traditional reindeer herding in the area. If the mine opens they would lose access to the fenced-off mining area (46 square kilometers) and lose connectivity between remaining grazing grounds, which in turn will lead to large areas becoming functionally unavailable (Lawrence & Larsen, 2016). New mining-associated infrastructure, for example, roads and powerlines, would add further pressure, making it impossible to practice traditional reindeer herding. Just like the herders from Gabna and Laevas SRCs, herders from Semisjaur-Njarg SRC would have to rely heavily on supplementary feeding – with a risk of ending up as “reindeer farmers” (Lawrence & Larsen, 2016). Thus their main conclusion is that the cumulative effects would hinder traditional reindeer herding if the mining project is realized, a conclusion that was strongly contested by Boliden AB, as they claimed that the analysis was “subjective and thus invalid” (Lawrence & Larsen, 2016; Lawrence & Larsen, 2017: 1175).

The main advantage with community-led impact assessments, besides being led by the actor with the most detailed knowledge, is the ability to circumvent corporate unwillingness to reveal the full impacts of a proposed project as these would risk being unfavorable. The results from the impact assessment of the Leveäniemi mining project by Laevas and Gabna SRCs (Nilsson et al., 2014) resulted in financial support from the company LKAB for mitigation measures to aid reindeer herding in the area, such as new coralls and fences. The information provided was, however, not considered important enough to hinder other mining ventures. For example, a major step toward opening a copper mine, strategically located in a key area for Laevas and Gabna SRCs, was taken when Copperstone Resources AB recently was granted a mining concession (Viscaria K. nr 7). In addition, a re-opening of the Pahtohavare mine (Lovisagruvan), which has been closed since 1997, is now being discussed (Lovisagruvan, 2021). Additional mining activities in this still “open” narrow corridor just south of the LKAB Kiruna mines would hinder reindeer migration between summer and winter pastures. For Semisjaur-Njarg it is yet too early to tell whether the community-led IA will influence land use planning as no final decision has been made regarding the Boliden AB permit application for the Laver mine. However, Boliden’s fierce contestation of the community-led impact assessment suggests that it is an unwelcome initiative. This is perhaps no surprise since it portrays the potential impacts from the proposed mining site as far more severe than described in the corporate-led EIA (Lindeström & Eriksson, 2014).

The Sodankylä Social Impact Management Plan

Sodankylä municipality, which is sparsely populated and rurally located in the Kemijoki river catchment in northern Finland, is an example par excellence of an Arctic resource-rich region lacking control of its fate and future (Figure 6.1) (Dahl et al., 2010). Here, several large-scale mining and hydro-power projects have significantly impacted environment and people over recent decades. Forestry, pulp mills, and the paper industry were the main industrial activities in Finland after the Second World War. The large northern forests provided timber for the industry and local employment (Donner-Amnell, 1991), and forestry intensified in the Sodankylä area. Development for hydro-power also started in the Kemijoki catchment (Österlin et al., 2023, see Chapter 5). The large Lokka and Porttipahta reservoirs, and six hydro-power plants harnessing the River Kitinen, which is a tributary of Kemijoki, are located in Sodankylä municipality. From the local point of view, this period of “hyper-extractivism” (Sörlin, 2023, see Chapter 1) provided employment and opportunities for local development – the “glory days” of rising living standards and rapid transition to a modern lifestyle with all its amenities. However, due to mechanization, the importance of forestry for local employment and economy declined rapidly from the 1980s onward (Rannikko, 2010). Also, automated hydro-power production provided far fewer work opportunities for locals compared to the construction phase. As a result, unemployment was high, and population declined when the new millennium began.

The most recent “mining boom” in Arctic Fennoscandia, which began in the early 2000s, changed prospects in Sodankylä. The municipality is situated in the mineral-rich central Lapland green stone belt (Sarala, 2010), where the Canadian company First Quantum Minerals opened the Kevitsa multi-metal mine in 2012, which was sold to the Swedish company Boliden AB in 2016 (Hietala, Syväjärvi, & Mauno, 2015). In addition, AA Sakatti Mining (part of Anglo American) began their EIA procedure for mining of copper, nickel, and platinum in 2017, a process still ongoing in 2021. Activities resulting from the Sakatti mining project will most likely impact the Viiankiaapa mire, protected by the EU-wide Natura 2000 nature conservation program (Metsähallitus, 2018) and increase demands on the EIA. According to the consultant company, the mining project will increase employment and result in general positive economic development in the region during the construction and operation phases (Ramboll, 2020). Several other companies have also prospected for minerals and precious metals such as gold and copper in the Sodankylä region (Sarala, 2010).

Currently, there are several mining projects in different stages of exploration, development, and operation in Sodankylä. In contrast, the economy of the Pahtavaara gold mine, which was opened in 1996 by the Terra Mining company, is faltering (Rupert Resources, 2021). Thus, mines are wicked possibilities for many host communities, and their prosperity depends on fluctuations on the global markets (Suopajärvi & Kantola, 2020). Adaptation to industrial development that occurs in boom-and-bust cycles is especially challenging for small communities (Lockie, 2009; Suopajärvi & Kantola, 2020). The social impacts of mining projects and their associated need of infrastructure, provision of services, and housing represented immense opportunities as well as a considerable challenge for Sodankylä municipality. For example, when First Quantum Minerals reported on economic problems and wanted to sell the Kevitsa mine, it was feared that the mine would be closed for good and the investments and hopes for future prosperity in Sodankylä lost (Hietala et al., 2015).

Using the three-pillar conception of sustainability (social, economic, and environmental) as a reference, the mining companies are responsible for economic viability of their specific businesses, and the authorities should monitor compliance with environmental standards. However, when it comes to social impacts of large-scale industrial development of one extractive sector, there is not a single actor nor mechanism in place to ensure social sustainability (Suopajärvi & Kantola, 2020). As a response, Sodankylä municipality therefore decided to develop a SIMP, which included assessment, monitoring, and managing of diverse social consequences from mining (Franks et al., 2010; Vanclay & Esteves, 2011; Franks & Vanclay, 2013). This unique initiative was funded by the Regional Innovation in the Nordic Arctic and Scotland (REGINA) project, which was in operation from 2015 to 2018 with a special focus on regions with large-scale industrial projects. Sodankylä municipality and the University of Lapland at Rovaniemi were the project’s Finnish partners (Nordregio, 2015). Representatives from Sodankylä municipality led the process, and scientists conducted two surveys on the impacts of mining (Kuisma & Suopajärvi, 2017; Saariniemi, 2018).

After the baseline analyses of the socio-economic situation of the municipality (Kantola, 2016), three workshops with large stakeholder involvement were organized in 2016 and 2017. In total, forty representatives participated from the tourism industry, reindeer herding communities, different municipal sectoral units, the mineral industry, and third sector organizations, such as village associations. Several small organizations and micro-entrepreneurs, with limited resources and workforce, were not able to participate in the workshops that were organized during daytime. Participants agreed that the collaborative planning process was valuable, as such, because it provided an opportunity to hear and discuss conflicting opinions.

The explicit goal of the SIMP was to foster sustainable mining benefits to the local community: “The main principle is that Sodankylä municipality encourages and promotes cooperation with mining projects if and when in advance demonstrated by impact assessments and relevant research findings that the project benefits the local community and that the risks can be accepted in short and long term by the local community” (Sodankylä Municipality, 2018: 4). The program included goals, action plans, and indicators for the three pillars of sustainability. For example, social sustainability goals included themes like increased welfare and local cultural development, and the action plan for social sustainability included support for new inhabitants to settle in the municipality and improved housing and accommodation. The program also included an idea of continuing the SIMP process by facilitation of a “Local Mining Forum” for impact follow-up, needed actions for problem solving as well as actions for supporting sustainable solutions on the municipality level together with stakeholders and industry (Sodankylä Municipality, 2018).

In 2021, the last year of the program period, not much happened, and problems related to mining developments remain the same. The housing stock is old, and housing is expensive, even hindering the miners and their families from settling in the municipality. Traffic safety due to mining-related transportation is still experienced as a serious problem. The idea of the “Local Mining Forum” has not been developed further. On the other hand, mining companies took the initiative at the end of 2020 to make the third follow-up study of experienced impacts (Tulilehto & Suopajärvi, 2021). However, as the range of social impacts included was very wide, for example, spanning broad themes like wellbeing or population development and more specific questions related to organization of public and private services or traffic safety, decisions may not necessarily be in the hands of either the municipality or mining companies. For example, construction of new rental housing in the area is in the hands of private investors.

There are many possible reasons for the failure to implement the SIMP. It was initiated and coordinated by the short fixed-term research and development (R&D) REGINA project. It became a challenge for the small community with restricted monetary and personnel resources to continue to run the program after the external funding had ceased. Another reason was that the private sector was not involved, for example, in providing housing. We conclude that well-established cross-sectoral collaboration and long-term resources are needed for a municipality to bend fate in its favor (Dahl et al., 2010).

What Is at Stake?

Increasing resource extraction, infrastructure development, and other human disturbances pose serious challenges for reindeer herding today, especially in Arctic Fennoscandia, where fragmentation and cumulative loss of reindeer pasture are very high (Rosqvist et al., 2020). Challenges for reindeer herding were already discussed in the Arctic Council report “Sustainable Reindeer Husbandry” (Jernsletten & Klokov, 2002), where loss of pastures was posed as one of the most serious threats. Strangely, the accumulation of such impacts is still not acknowledged in land use planning. Also, sadly there is no formal recipient of community-led assessments of impacts on reindeer herding even if those provide a more informed perspective of negative social consequences on Sámi culture. Instead, our examples reveal significant negative consequences for local communities because corporations act out of self-interest and therefore may downplay the full impacts, especially if these venture into the project (Blowfield, 2005).

As pointed out in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004), the effect of global warming “could have” a large impact on reindeer husbandry. We do note that climate warming has already had a significant impact on reindeer, especially during winter, adding to the already high pressure from human disturbances (e.g., Rosqvist, Inga, & Eriksson, 2022; Rasmus et al., 2022). Still, impacts from climate change are not yet incorporated in IA in any satisfactory manner (Rosqvist et al., 2020; Nilsson, Avango, & Rosqvist, 2021), and therefore the vulnerability of the ecosystem used by reindeer is greatly underestimated.

The need for a special social impact management plan for mining in Sodankylä reflects the poor performance of the state of the art single project impact assessments. They lack a proper evaluation of impacts on humans and their socio-cultural-economic surrounding. It was disappointing that the positive local outcomes promised by the original separate impact assessments could not be fulfilled because of the lack of resources for, in particular, new housing and infrastructure. Instead of wishful predictions, the assessment procedure of social impacts needs more emphasis on follow-up studies of impacts of previous and ongoing mining activities. This would also increase local acceptance of mining and provide social license to operate, which is often emphasized by the mining industry (cf. Heikkinen et al., 2016). For example, some 80 percent of respondents in Sodankylä municipality answered that mining is locally accepted in three different surveys (Kuisma & Suopajärvi, 2017; Saariniemi, 2018). However, when looking at the open-ended answers, there were many reservations, such as “if environmental issues are taken care of” and “if the mine will bring benefits or jobs for the locality” (Tulilehto & Suopajärvi, 2021). If we take this kind of local reservation to mining seriously, it is evident that the emphasis of assessing social and environmental impacts should be more on following up the real impacts than on predicting only potential ones. Transparent follow-up studies could also be seen as an investment for a sustainably prospering mining industry. There is a dire need for strategic decisions about environmental and social development in Arctic Fennoscandia. Demand is now increasing rapidly for further extraction of minerals/metals and for production of renewable energy driven by the “green” transition.

It is clearly demonstrated that analysis of societal consequences needs to be included in assessments of impacts in the Arctic if the aim is to plan for long-term sustainability (Carson & Peterson, 2016; Wormbs and Sörlin, 2017). Nonetheless, governing authorities continue to react to development proposals rather than proactively anticipating them. EIAs are carried out too late, when strategic decisions have already been made or when there is a lack of strategic planning. Hence, only a limited range of feasible alternatives is addressed. The relative importance of a proposed project on the economy of a small municipality may be too large for considerations of alternatives, so regional planning is needed. The fact that the EIA process is corporate led means that the results most often serve the purpose of justifying and legitimizing proposed extraction or other activities. Participation in the EIA process may therefore become a moral dilemma for stakeholders who don’t accept or consider the project as legitimate to start with. Such are, for example, reindeer herding communities that wish for an alternative option to be assessed than the ones that are tied to certain development projects under compulsory EIA procedures. Still, SRCs must participate in consultations to voice their opinions on pre-set options introduced by the developer for their planning purposes. This task has become overwhelming for many communities due to the large number of consultations of land use changing projects: To such an extent that they argue, for example, that they have to choose “whether they should conduct reindeer herding or go to planning meetings” (Österlin & Raitio, 2020). It is obvious that cumulative environmental and social impacts should be assessed and evaluated in the early stages of decision-making if the aim of the procedure is to meet environmental and social development goals (Fischer & Gonzales, 2015; Nilsson et al., 2021). In Fennoscandia there is a long tradition of multiple-level land use planning. Particularly, large-scale land use planning instruments, such as the “Comprehensive plans” in Sweden and “the Government decision on Finland’s national land use guidelines”, should be better equipped to handle multiple and temporally cumulative pressures on environment and people. They should also steer more actively on the regional and local level. As our cases show, the current systems are lacking, and environmental governance is more reactive than proactive. One development path might be enhancing the implementation of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) (Noble & Nwanekezie, 2017), introduced by the European Commission for spatial planning. The use of SEA within the EU is regulated through the directive on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programs on the environment (EU Directive 2001/42/EC), but SEAs are still poorly utilized, as they are not yet mandatory (Wretling et al., 2021). SEAs might be used to ensure that environmental and social issues are considered early, and crosscutting sectors and alternative future pathways would be explored before the planning of a certain project begins.

Thus, we conclude that in the light of our case studies the impact assessments should be deconstructed and reworked at every level of land use administration. Rethinking should start from national level land use planning instruments and proceed to practical EIA procedures with their pre-set development driving options and limited temporal and spatial scope. This notion will become even more urgent and topical when climate change adds a new layer of accumulating but hardly fully predictable impacts and threats.

It is true that many Arctic societies have shown proof of high resilience as they have adapted earlier to changing conditions. However, multiple pressures from long-term resource exploitation and effects from rapid climate change now risk pushing reindeer herding communities to their brink. Our example from Sodankylä municipality shows that planning for a sustainable future becomes an overwhelming challenge when there are not enough material and human resources allocated to adapt to the rapidly changing conditions resulting from extractivism.