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The Problem of Measure Sensitivity Redux

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Peter Brössel
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Abstract

Fitelson demonstrates that the validity of various central arguments within Bayesian confirmation theory depends on which confirmation measure is adopted. This article adds to the results set out by Fitelson, expanding on them in two principal respects. First, it considers more confirmation measures. Second, it shows that there are important arguments within Bayesian confirmation theory and that there is no confirmation measure that renders them all valid. Finally, the article reviews the ramifications that this “strengthened problem of measure sensitivity” has for Bayesian confirmation theory and discusses whether it points at pluralism about notions of confirmation.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 80 , Issue 3 , July 2013 , pp. 378 - 397
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

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Footnotes

†

I am very grateful to four exceedingly helpful referees of this journal, especially for spotting a mistake in one of my proofs and encouraging me to discuss, among other issues, the ramifications of the problem of measure sensitivity in more detail in section 4. In addition, I would like to thank Ralf Busse, Vincenzo Crupi, Anna-Maria A. Eder, Branden Fitelson, Franz Huber, James M. Joyce, and Hannes Leitgeb for their invaluable feedback on various versions of this article. I also want to emphasize my gratitude to James M. Joyce for the permission to cite and quote his unpublished manuscript “On the Plurality of Probabilist Measures of Evidential Relevance.” Finally, I also would like to thank Robert Lehnert and Ben Young for proofreading the manuscript.

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