Although contraception allows women to delay childbirth, stop unwanted childbearing, and postpone childbirth, not all contraception is equally effective, equally easy to access, or equally easy to use. Due to heterogeneity in women’s contraception opportunities and choices, in the effectiveness of the contraception used and even in luck, women differ in both their birth intervals and their age at first childbirth. We explore this heterogeneity, theoretically, incorporating contraception effectiveness and uncertainty (along with potential earnings, contraception costs, and net child benefits) into a potential mother’s childbearing decisions. Empirically, these factors are incorporated into a first hit time duration model, focusing on time to first birth, estimated with data from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The results provide nuanced insights into the income-fertility puzzle. Our evidence suggests that educated women start childbearing later, and are better able to use contraception, even less effective contraception. Thus, there are education-related heterogeneities in contraceptive effectiveness. Further, we find that women using more effective contraception start childbearing at a later age, as do women with better access to contraception. Both improved female education and improved access to modern contraception have the potential to hasten the fertility transition in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, Africa is expected to account for more than half of the population growth in the world in the next three decades. And by the turn of the 22nd century, the populations of the poorest 33 African countries will have likely tripled. These demographic developments present challenges and opportunities for sustained growth and economic development in Africa. On the one hand, for example, they make it harder for cities to grow harmoniously, and for governments to fight poverty and inequality, while expanding health and education services. On the other hand, the potential for a demographic transition opens the door to the possibility of reaping the fruits of a demographic dividend, which was so important in the take-off of Europe towards modern growth.

The historical evolution of the EU–US unemployment-rate gap is often explained in the literature in terms of asymmetric changes in labor-market institutions. There may well also be asymmetries in population aging, which may generate international capital flows and have substantial impacts on relative unemployment rates. In this paper, we ask whether the combination of institutions, aging, and capital flows explains the rise in the unemployment gap between 1960 and 2010. To this end, we set up a two-region OLG model with search unemployment in which we introduce the historical and projected changes in labor-market institutions and demographics. We show that asymmetric institutional changes alone can reproduce a large part of the historical rise in the unemployment gap. However, this result no longer holds once we add asymmetric aging in closed economies. We find this initial result again, and in an even stronger form, when we allow for international capital mobility.

There is an extensive literature discussing how individuals’ marriage behavior changes as a country develops. However, no existing data set allows an explicit investigation of the relationship between marriage and economic development. In this paper, we construct new cross-country panel data on marital statistics for 16 OECD countries from 1900 to 2000, in order to analyze such a relationship. We use this data set, together with cross-country data on real GDP per capita and the value added share of agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors, to document two novel stylized facts. First, the fraction of a country’s population that is married displays a hump-shaped relationship with the level of real GDP per capita. Second, the fraction of the married correlates positively with the share of manufacturing in GDP. We conclude that the stage of economic development of a country is a key factor that affects individuals’ family formation decisions.

Having accurate poverty statistics is of primary importance for researchers and policy-makers. Based on original data on Burundi, we investigate the sensitivity of poverty headcount calculations to considering individual- instead of household-level consumption. Relying on a survey module which provides information on the share of expenses allocated to each member of the households, we calculate poverty statutes on an individual basis. Exploiting these direct measures to compute poverty headcounts allows us to put forward the discrepancy between individual- and household-level poverty computations. We identify “hidden poor,” i.e. poor individuals living in non-poor households, and show that they are predominantly children. We finally discuss potential mechanisms that could drive the results, and emphasize the importance of improving data collection devices for poverty-related policy making.

The headline demographics of sub-Saharan Africa appear to be reason for concern. Looking back, since Independence in the 1960s, the region has been the major exception to the global demographic trend of rising height: In some countries, average height has even been declining [eLife (2016)]. Looking forward, between now and 2050, the population is set to grow more rapidly than that of any other region. But the demographic transition that is typically of most concern to African governments is not about the size or stature of overall population, it is urbanization. Politicians fear the consequences of a restive urban youth: an Arab Spring repeated south of the Sahara. Many would like to slow the pace of urbanization.

The objectives of this study are twofold: first, we assess what factors “anchors” are keeping immigrants in their current place of residence, and what variables drive immigrants to move out of their community. Second, we also look at how the effects of these factors on migration differ by whether or not immigrants are living in ethnic enclaves and by the macro-level economic environment. We find that the conventional “anchors” of mobility are less powerful for immigrants living in co-ethnic regions. Results also show that under depressed economic conditions, migration decisions are largely driven by economic factors, and that socio-demographic factors like marital status are less consequential. Conversely, when general economic conditions are better for immigrants, marital status will weigh more heavily on migration decisions.

This paper shows that differences in fertility across European countries mainly emerge due to fewer women having two children in low-fertility countries. It further suggests that childcare services are an important determinant for the transition to a second child to occur. The theoretical framework we propose suggests that (i) in countries where childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a couple’s probability of having a second child and the woman’s potential wage, whereas (ii) in countries with easy access to childcare, this probability is positively related with the woman’s potential wage. Data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) confirm these implications when estimating a woman’s probability of having a second child as a function of education. This implies that middle-income women are the most affected ones by the lack of access to formal and subsidized childcare.

Numerous primary investigators collected and processed long-termed time series on German educational statistics in the context of their studies. As a result, there are a multitude of quantitative empirical studies. On the one hand, there is the project group on German Educational Statistics.1 Its projects were targeted at describing and analyzing the long-term structural changes of the German educational system on a broad empirical and statistical basis. On the other hand, there are comprehensive data compilations of individual research projects, focusing on a wide variety of special educational research topics. The online database “histat” provides central digital access to these datasets on German educational history. Currently, it offers more than 120,000 long-term time series on the German educational system for a period of 200 years. The striking size of the database shows its key importance for researchers in the field of education. Thus, this paper aims to provide useful insights into the background of the database, the special characteristics of the data compilations and their analytical potential. Additionally, examples are given of how the data have already been used by researchers.

The effects of childhood mortality and morbidity on the fertility decision-making process are analyzed using longitudinal micro data from a Senegalese rural community, for the period 1984–2011. I attempt to identify the effect of individual child mortality, and also that of community child mortality and morbidity, on subsequent fertility choices. The results provide consistent support for both the child-replacement hypothesis and the precautionary demand for children. I find that community child mortality and morbidity attributable to malaria, which capture changes in the epidemiological context, exert a joint influence on fertility behaviors. Community-level malaria incidence among children has a positive effect on subsequent fertility choices, and this positive effect is stronger the more the disease is fatal to children who are infected. This study highlights the role of morbidity, acting through the relative risk of dying from the disease, on the slow fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa.

The effects on agents’ welfare of two different policies dealing with undocumented immigrants, amnesties and deportations, are assessed. I develop a two-period overlapping generations model which accounts for the ex-ante production by undocumented workers and their impact on the government budget. Additional channels, such as the discrimination on the labor market and a different productivity of regularized workers are discussed. The impact of a migration policy depends on the wage effects of the legalized/deported workers and their net fiscal contribution. The calibration of the model for the United States in 2014 allows to disentangle the channels at work. Overall, the impact of the two policies on natives’ welfare is limited (between −0.1% and +0.15%). Retired agents benefit from an amnesty and are harmed by a deportation. The effect on workers is ambiguous and depends on the wage and fiscal effects in addition to the change in the returns on savings.

The stylized facts of Africa's urban transition highlight the limitations of traditional economic models of urbanization. Recent research has provided evidence that demographic rather than economic processes provide a more compelling explanation for observed trends in the region. In particular, mortality decline appears to be both a necessary and sufficient condition for urbanization to occur and a key driver of urban growth more broadly. The accumulation of survey data over the past few decades and the development of new geospatial datasets that incorporate satellite imagery are facilitating new, more spatially nuanced insights into the dynamics of urban population change in the region. This offers opportunity to develop better policies for managing urban change than those adopted in the past, which placed a misguided emphasis on manipulating migration incentives with little evidence of positive benefits.

The majority of the urban population of Sub-Saharan Africa lives in slums where access to basic services, such as water, sanitation, or electricity is low. There is a growing body of evidence showing that access to these basic services has significant effect on the well-being of the poor. As the progress to universal access is still very slow, this essay contributes to the understanding of the persistence of the situation by reviewing the recent empirical evidence on both supply and demand issues related to the provision of basic infrastructure in urban areas of developing countries.

In this paper, I suggest a novel explanation for a hump-shaped age-consumption profile, based on human aging. The model integrates health in the utility function and utilizes recent estimates of the effects of health on the marginal utility of consumption. The parsimonious model has a closed-form solution for the age of peak consumption and the consumption level at that age relative to initial consumption. A calibration of the model with data from gerontology produces an empirically plausible hump in consumption.

On page 476 of the text, in the second paragraph it states: “In comparison, the percent of individuals who can be linked in the Chinese Eight Banner Registers is 14.54% or 24.76% for one generation, depending on whether one considers Liaoning or Heilongjiang Province [Dong et al. (2015)].” This should instead read: “In comparison, the percent of individuals who can't be linked in the Chinese Eight Banner Registers is 14.54% or 24.76% for one generation, depending on whether one considers Liaoning or Heilongjiang Province [Dong et al. (2015)].”

The authors apologise for this error.

This paper reviews the scant economic literature on the transformations of farming households under the influence of land pressure, market development or technical change. Theoretical as well as empirical contributions are summarized with a special attention to the African context.