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Rationality at the Brink: The Role of Cognitive Processes in Failures of Deterrence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Jack L. Snyder
Jack L. Snyder
Affiliation:
Columbia University
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Abstract

Decision makers in international crises seek to reconcile two values: on the one hand, avoiding the loss of prestige and credibility that capitulation would entail and, on the other, avoiding war. These values conflict with each other, in the sense that any policy designed to further one of them will jeopardize the other. Cognitive theory suggests that in ambiguous circumstances a decision maker will suppress uncomfortable value conflicts, conceptualizing his dilemma in such a way that the values appear to be consonant. President Kennedy's process of decision and rationalization in the Cuban missile crisis fits this pattern. He contended that compromise would allay the risk of war in the short run only at the cost of increasing it in the long run. Thus, he saw his policy of no compromise as furthering both the goal of maintaining U.S. prestige and credibility and the goal of avoiding war.

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 30 , Issue 3 , April 1978 , pp. 345 - 365
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1978

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References

1 This trade-off relationship is discussed in A George, Alexander L., Hall, David K., and Simons, William R., The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Laos, Cuba, Vietnam (Boston: Little, Brown 1971), 232–38.Google Scholar

2 From Schelling's article in Archibald, Kathleen, ed., Strategic Interaction and Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press 1966), 150,Google Scholar as quoted in Allison, Graham, Essence of Decision (Boston: Little, Brown 1971), 19.Google Scholar

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13 Steinbruner, has discussed the implications of his theory for deterrence strategies in “Beyond Rational Deterrence: The Struggle for New Conceptions” World Politics, XXVIII (January 1976).Google Scholar The discussion presented here takes a different direction and should not be construed as reflecting Professor Steinbruner's views on the implications of his model for deterrence theory.

14 These principles and some of their experimental underpinnings are presented in Steinbruner (fn. 9); Festinger (fn. 12); Janis (fn. 10); Brehm, Jack W. and Cohen, Arthur R., Explorations in Cognitive Dissonance (New York: Wiley 1962);CrossRefGoogle Scholar and deRivera, Joseph H. with Rosenau, James N., The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy (Columbus, Ohio: Merrill 1968).Google Scholar

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23 Experimental evidence suggests that when the objective probability of a desirable occurrence is relatively high, people tend to view that probability as approaching certainty; conversely, impossibility is often imputed to events which are only moderately unlikely. DeRivera (fn. 14), 109.

24 Steinbruner (fn. 9), 110. The principal study which Steinbruner uses to illustrate his theory is the debate on the M.L.F. (multilateral force). His discussions of the Cuban crisis are limited to this examination of Kennedy's certainty regarding his impeachment and to one of Kennedy's certainty in his inferences about Soviet intentions and the consequences of a no-response policy, 89.

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44 In addition, each side was to agree not to violate the sovereignty of the other's client. It should be noted that the final agreement did entail one element of “compromise.” The United States agreed to forswear an invasion of Cuba as a condition for the removal of the missiles. That was not much of a concession, and Kennedy certainly lost no prestige by agreeing to it. In fact, he had to warn his subordinates not to be excessively gleeful in public print about the settlement.

45 Stone (fn. 30), 221.

46 Schlesinger (fn. 37), 741; emphasis added.

47 Stone (fn. 30), 222.

48 Abel (fn. 28), 175–77.

49 Stone (fn. 30), 222.

50 Kennedy, speech at American University, June 10, 1963, quoted in Abel (fn. 28), 91.

51 Schlesinger (fn. 37), 742.

52 This does not necessarily indicate that Khrushchev's decision was analytical in the sense of weighing trade-offs, making indifference calculations, etc. It is possible that the cognitive pressures on Khrushchev and his colleagues were structured differently from those on Kennedy. Only detailed information on the Soviets' decision process, which is currently unavailable, could resolve this question.

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55 Steinbruner (fn. 9), 147.