Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T07:52:20.050Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Preventing Civil War

How the Potential for International Intervention can Deter Conflict Onset

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 February 2016

David E. Cunningham
Get access

Extract

Civil wars occur in some countries at some times and not in other countries at other times. This articleexamines how the potential for large-scale external intervention can prevent civil wars. The authorargues that intervention by external states in civil war can be so overwhelming that it reduces one side’s probability of victory to essentially zero. When dissidents expect this type of intervention on the side of government, they anticipate no chance of achieving success through violence and do not initiate civil wars. When governments anticipate this type of intervention on their behalf, they feel protected from internal threat and are less constrained in their dealings with their populations. This repression increases grievances, leading dissidents to engage in strategies of dissent other than civil war. The authortests three implications of this argument-that states in more hierarchical relationships will experience civil war at lower rates, be more repressive, and experience other forms of dissent at higher rates-and finds strong support for it.

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 68 , Issue 2 , April 2016 , pp. 307 - 340
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Balch-Lindsay, Dylan, and Enterline, Andrew J.. 2000. “Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820–1992.” International Studies Quarterly 44, no. 2: 615–42.Google Scholar
Carter, David B., and Signorino, Curtis S.. 2010. “Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data.” Political Analysis 18, no. 3: 271–92.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Weidmann, Nils B., and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2011. “Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison.” American Political Science Review 105, no. 3: 478–95.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Wimmer, Andreas, and Min, Brian. 2010. “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis.” World Politics 62, no. 1 (January): 87–119.Google Scholar
Cetinyan, Rupen. 2002. “Ethnic Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Intervention.” International Organization 56, no. 3: 645–77.Google Scholar
Chenoweth, Erica. 2010. “Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity.” Journal of Politics 72, no. 1: 16–30.Google Scholar
Chenoweth, Erica, and Lewis, Orion A.. 2013. “Unpacking Nonviolent Campaigns: Introducing the NAVCO 2.0 Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 3: 415–23.Google Scholar
Chenoweth, Erica, and Stephan, Maria J.. 2011. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. New York, N.Y.: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Cingranelli, David L., and Richards, David L.. 1999. “Measuring the Level, Pattern, and Sequence of Government Respect for Physical Integrity Rights.” International Studies Quarterly 43, no. 2: 407–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul. 2009. Wars, Guns, and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places. New York, N.Y.: Harper Collins.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4: 563–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, David E. 2016. Supplementary material. At http://dx.doi.org10.1017/S0043887115000404.Google Scholar
Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher. 2013. “Actor Fragmentation and Civil War.” American Journal of Political Science 57, no. 3: 659–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enders, Walter, Sandler, Todd, and Gaibulloev, Khusrav. 2011. “Domestic versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics.” Journal of Peace Research 48, no. 3: 319–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2004. “State Death in the International System.” International Organization 58, no. 2: 311–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3: 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 1: 75–90.Google Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. n.d. “The Relevance of Bargaining in International Politics.” Manuscript, University of California, San Diego.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. “Expanded Trade and GDP Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 5: 712–24.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2007. “Transnational Dimensions of Civil War.” Journal of Peace Research 4, no. 3: 293–309.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Ward, Michael D.. 2001. “Measuring Space: A Minimum-Distance Database and Applications to International Studies.” Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 6: 739–58.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Håvard. 2002. “Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 5: 615–37.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2006. “Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50, no. 4: 508–35.Google Scholar
Högbladh, Stina, Pettersson, Therése, and Themnér, Lotta. 2011. “External Support in Armed Conflict 1975–2009. Presenting New Data.” Paper presented at the 52nd Annual International Studies Association Convention, Montreal, Canada, March 16–19.Google Scholar
Jenne, Erin. 2004. “A Bargaining Theory of Minority Demands: Explaining the Dog That Did Not Bite in 1990s Yugoslavia.” International Studies Quarterly 48, no. 4: 729–54.Google Scholar
Jentleson, Bruce W. 1992. “The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force.” International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 1: 49–73.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2: 347–61.Google Scholar
Lake, David A. 2009. Hierarchy in International Relations. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Lake, David A.. 2013. “Legitimating Power: The Domestic Politics of US International Hierarchy.” International Security 38, no. 2: 74–111.Google Scholar
Pickering, Jeffrey, and Kisangani, Emizet F.. 2009. “The International Military Intervention Dataset: An Updated Resource for Conflict Scholars.” Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 4: 589–99.Google Scholar
Powell, Jonathan. 2014a. “Regime Vulnerability and the Diversionary Threat of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58, no. 1: 169–96.Google Scholar
Powell, Jonathan. 2014b. “The Strategic Logic of Tolerating Rebellion.” African Security Review 23, no. 4: 329–38.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2006. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60, no. 4: 169–203.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick. 2002. “Third Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1: 55–73.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean. 2009. Rebels without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2006. “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War.” International Organization 60, no. 2: 335–66.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Cunningham, David E.. 2011. “Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups.” International Organization 65, no. 4: 709–44.Google Scholar
Themnér, Lotta, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2014. “Armed Conflicts, 1946–2013.” Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 4: 541–54.Google Scholar
Thyne, Clayton L. 2009. How International Relations Affect Civil Conflict: Cheap Signals, Costly Consequences. Lanham, Md.: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy. 2005. The Geography of Ethnic War: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy. 2006. “Issue Indivisibility and Time Horizons as Rationalist Explanations for War.” Security Studies 15, no. 1: 34–69.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, and King, Gary. 2003. “CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results.” Journal of Statistical Software. At http://j.mp/k3k0rx, accessed November 4, 2015.Google Scholar
Vreeland, James. 2008. “The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3: 401–25.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2007. War and the State: The Theory of International Politics. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth. 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York, N.Y.: McGraw Hill.Google Scholar
Weidmann, Nils B., Kuse, Doreen, and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2010. “The Geography of the International System: The CShapes Dataset.” International Interactions 36, no. 1: 86–106.Google Scholar
Wood, Reed M., and Gibney, Mark. 2010. “The Political Terror Scale (PTS): A Re-introduction and a Comparison to CIRI.” Human Rights Quarterly 32, no. 2: 367–400.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Cunningham supplementary material

Cunningham supplementary material 1

Download Cunningham supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 898 KB