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“Inevitable” War: A Problem in the Control of Long-Range Expectations
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 July 2011
Extract
Belief in the inevitability of World War III may well be a factor in bringing on that catastrophe. Certainly the way the crisis is expected to end will affect in some degree the course and outcome of the struggle between the Russian and non-Russian world. On the Soviet side there is dogmatic and unanimous assertion that world communism will “inevitably” triumph. The expectations prevailing in the other camp are strikingly different. In place of dogma and uniformity there are doubt, variety, and confusion. No single voice commands enough authority to speak for everyone, but there is extensive doubt of the “inevitable” spread and eventual triumph of the liberal outlook. Confidence in the inevitability of progress has been shaken, but the expectation of progress remains as a working hypothesis or at least as a declaration of faith, hope, and purpose. In other words, neither victory nor defeat of the liberal outlook is inevitable, and the shape of things to come depends in large measure on how the leaders of the liberal world shape them. Part of the shaping, if it is to be successful, will include the adoption of policies toward the Soviet Union which will modify Soviet expectations of inevitable progress through catastrophe. What are some of the practical means of accomplishing this end? If the non-Soviet world is to take practical steps, what modifications must be made in its own long-range expectations?
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- Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1949
References
1 The point is not to be overlooked that assertions of the inevitability of peace can also make for war to the extent that aggression is invited.
2 Merton, Robert K. discusses “The Self-fulfilling Prophecy” in The Antioch Review, Summer, 1948.Google Scholar
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5 The analysis of the self follows the lines laid down by Charles Horton Cooley and George Herbert Mead. Data from experimental and field studies are found in Cantril, Hadley and Sherif, Muzafer, The Psychology of Ego-involvements, Social Attitudes and Identifications, New York, Wiley, 1947.Google Scholar
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16 Robert Michels often spoke of the “accordion rhythm” of such parties.
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20 Just as socialism has typically been state socialism, planning has typically been national planning. On the nationalization of socialism and the socialization of nationalism see Mitrany, David, “The Political Consequences of Economic Planning,” Sociological Review (London), XXVI (1934), pp. 321–45.Google Scholar
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24 The leaders of the countries caught between communism and capitalism have sought feverishly after a “middle way.” This healthy trend was early manifest in The Three Principles of Sun Yat-sen, and is currently expressed in Jawaharlal Nehru and a host of lesser lights.
25 See footnote 11 above.
26 Autopsies on Nazi Germany should prove valuable in estimating the factors affecting realistic intelligence. The most general hypothesis, perhaps, is that pure power calculators try to calculate what their superiors want to hear, and believe that they dislike reports which appear to be incompatible with basic preferences. Personal, factional, and organizational rivalries are such, however, that much “truth leaks up.” The degree to which Hitler and his inner circle were correctly informed (up to the final days) is still in doubt; and as yet we know less than we need to know about other apex elites to provide a suitable basis of comparison.