Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T16:50:42.591Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Durability of Client Regimes

Foreign Sponsorship and Military Loyalty, 1946–2010

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2020

Adam E. Casey
Get access

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that great power patrons prop up client dictatorships. But this is generally assumed rather than systematically analyzed. This article provides the first comprehensive analysis of the relationship between foreign sponsorship and authoritarian regime survival, using an original data set of all autocratic client regimes in the postwar period. The results demonstrate that patronage from Western powers—the United States, France, and the United Kingdom—is not associated with client regime survival. Rather, it’s only Soviet sponsorship that reduced the risk of regime collapse. The author explains this variation by considering the effects of foreign sponsorship on the likelihood of military coups d’état. He argues that the Soviet Union directly aided its clients by imposing a series of highly effective coup prevention strategies. By contrast, the US and its allies didn’t provide such aid, leaving regimes vulnerable to military overthrow.

Keywords

authoritarian durabilitycivil-military relationsforeign interventionsCold Wargreat power foreign policyalliancesmilitary coupscoup prevention
Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 72 , Issue 3 , July 2020 , pp. 411 - 447
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adamishin, A. L., Aleksandrov, A. M., Blatov, A. I., Gorev, A. V., Grubyakov, V. F., Zemskov, I. N., Israelyan, V. L., Kapitsa, M. S., Koblyakov, I. K., Kutakov, L. N., Roshchin, A. A., Sanakoev, Sh. P., Tikhvinskiy, S. L. and Falin, V. M.. 1981. Istoriya vneshney politiki SSSR: Tom vtoroy, 1945–1980 gg. [History of the Foreign Policy of the USSR:Book II, 1945–1980]. Moscow, USSR: Nauka.Google Scholar
Albrecht, Holger. 2015. “The Myth of Coup-Proofing: Risk and Instances of Military Coups d’État in the Middle East and North Africa, 1950–2013.” Armed Forces & Society 41, no. 4: 659–87. doi: 10.1177/0095327X14544518.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrew, Christopher, and Mitrokhin, Vasili. 2005. The World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World. New York, N.Y.: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Armstrong, Charles K. 2003. The North Korean Revolution, 1945–1950. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Ayele, Fantahun. 2014. The Ethiopian Army: From Victory to Collapse, 1977–1991. Evanston, Ill.: Northwestern University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Elizabeth. 1998. When the War Was Over: Cambodia and the Khmer RougeRevolution, 2nd ed. New York, N.Y.: PublicAffairs.Google Scholar
Bellin, Eva. 2004. “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Politics 36, no. 2: 139–57. doi: 10.2307/4150140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2011. “Democracy, Development, and the International System.” American Political Science Review 105, no. 4: 809–28. doi:10.1017/S00030554 11000402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles, and Svolik, Milan W.. 2013. “The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions, Commitment, and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships.” Journal of Politics 75, no. 2: 300–16. doi:10.1017/S0022381613000029.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brazinsky, Gregg. 2007. Nation Building in South Korea: Koreans, Americans, and the Making of a Democracy. Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brownlee, Jason. 2012. Democracy Prevention: The Politics of the US–Egyptian Alliance. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Siverson, Randolph M., and Woller, Gary. 1992. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review 86, no. 3: 638–46. doi: 10.2307/1964127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casey, Adam E. 2020. “Replication data for: The Durability of Client Regimes: Foreign Sponsorship and Military Loyalty, 1946–2010.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. doi: 10.7910/DVN/OWGEAR.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chandler, David P. 1991. The Tragedy of Cambodian History: Politics, War, and Revolution since 1945. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Clapham, Christopher. 1996. Africa and the International System: The Politics of State Survival. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
David, Steven R. 1987. Third World Coups d’État and International Security. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Deac, Wilfred P. 1997. Road to the Killing Fields: The Cambodian War of 1970–1975. College Station, Tex.: Texas A&M University Press.Google Scholar
De Bruin, Erica. 2018. “Preventing Coups d’État: How Counterbalancing Works.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 7: 1433–58. doi:10.1177/0022002717692652.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Bruin, Erica. 2019. “Mapping Coercive Institutions: The State Security Forces Dataset, 1960–2010.” SSRN. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3317127.Google Scholar
Dragu, Tiberiu, and Przeworski, Adam. 2019. “Preventive Repression: Two Types of Moral Hazard.” American Political Science Review 113, no. 1: 77–87. doi: 10.1017/S0003055418000552.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fitzgerald, Mary A. 1989. “Ethiopia: Rebellion and Retaliation.” Africa Report 34, no. 4: 52–55.Google Scholar
FRUS. 1990. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1955–1957. Vol. XIX: National Security Policy, eds. Klingaman, William, Patterson, David S., Ilana Stern. Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
FRUS. 2010a. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976. Vol. X: Vietnam, January 1973–July 1975, ed. Bradley Lynn Coleman. Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
FRUS. 2010b. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976. Vol. E-12: Documents on East and Southeast Asia, 1973–1976, eds. Bradley Lynn Coleman, David Goldman, and David Nickles. Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer. 2008. Political Institutions under Dictatorship. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J. 1991. US Foreign Policy and the Shah: Building a Client State in Iran. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. “What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years?” Annual Review of Political Science 2: 115–44. doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Frantz, Erica, and Wright, Joseph G.. 2014. “Military Rule.” Annual Review of Political Science 17: 147–62. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-213418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Wright, Joseph, and Frantz, Erica. 2018. How Dictatorships Work: Power, Personalization, and Collapse. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giustozzi, Antonio. 2015. The Army of Afghanistan: A Political History of a Fragile Institution. London, UK: Hurst Publishers.Google Scholar
Goldstone, Jack A. 1986. “Revolutions and Superpowers.” In Jonathan R. Adelman, ed., Superpowers and Revolution. New York, N.Y.: Praeger: 38–48.Google Scholar
Greitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2016. Dictators and their Secret Police: Coercive Institutions and State Violence. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gunitsky, Seva. 2017. Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in the Twentieth Century. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Haber, Stephen, and Menaldo, Victor. 2011. “Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse.” American Political Science Review 105, no. 1: 1–26. doi: 10.1017/S0003055410000584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harkness, Kristen A. 2016. “The Ethnic Army and the State: Explaining Coup Traps and the Difficulties of Democratization in Africa.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 60, no. 4: 587–616. doi: 10.1177/0022002714545332.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herspring, Dale R. 1996. Russian Civil-Military Relations. Bloomington, Ind.: Indiana University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, A. Ross. 1981. The Warsaw Pact: Soviet Military Policy in Eastern Europe. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Kapstein, Ethan B. 2017. Seeds of Stability: Land Reform and US Foreign Policy. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalinovsky, Artemy M. 2011. A Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karlin, Mara E. 2018. Building Militaries in Fragile States: Challenges for the United States. Philadelphia, Pa.: University of Pennsylvania Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khristoforov, V. S. 2009. Afganistan: Pravyashchaya partiya i armiya, 1978–1989 [Afghanistan: Ruling Party and Army, 1978–1989]. Moscow, Russia: Granitsa.Google Scholar
Khristoforov, V. S. 2015. Istoriya sovetskikh organov gosbezopasnosti, 1917–1991 gg. [History of the Soviet Security Services, 1917–1991]. Moscow, Russia: RGGU.Google Scholar
Khristoforov, V. S. 2016. Afganistan: Voenno-politicheskoye prisutstviye SSSR, 1979–1989 [Afghanistan: Military-Political Presence of the USSR, 1979–1989]. Moscow, Russia: RAN: IRI.Google Scholar
Klaas, Brian. 2016. The Despot’s Accomplice: How the West is Aiding and Abetting the Decline of Democracy. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Knight, Amy W. 1991. “Internal Security.” In Raymond E. Zickel, ed., Soviet Union: A Country Study. Washington, D.C.: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress: 753–96.Google Scholar
Kolkowicz, Roman. 1967. The Soviet Military and the Communist Party. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ladwig, Walter C., III. 2017. The Forgotten Front: Patron-Client Relationships in Counterinsurgency. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leon, Gabriel. 2014. “Loyalty for Sale? Military Spending and Coups d’État.” Public Choice 159: 363–83. doi: 10.1007/s11127-013-0124-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan A.. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Little, Andrew T. 2017. “Coordination, Learning, and Coups.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 1: 204–34. doi: 10.1177/0022002714567953.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Londoño, Ernesto, and Casey, Nicholas. 2018. “Trump Administration Discussed Coup Plans with Rebel Venezuelan Officers.” New York Times, September 8. At https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/08/world/americas/donald-trump-venezuela-military-coup.html, accessed April 6, 2020.Google Scholar
Luttwak, Edward N. 2016. Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook, 2nd ed. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macdonald, Douglas J. 1992. Adventures in Chaos: American Intervention for Reform in the Third World. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Márquez, Xavier. 2017. Non-Democratic Politics: Authoritarianism, Dictatorship and Democratization. London, UK: Palgrave.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marten, Kimberly. 2019. “Russia’s Use of Semi-State Security Forces: The Case of the Wagner Group.” Post-Soviet Affairs 35, no. 3: 181–204. doi:10.1080/1060586X.2019.1591142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mazov, Sergey. 2010. A Distant Front in the Cold War: The USSR in West Africa and the Congo, 1956–1964. Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.Google Scholar
Mesfin, Berouk. 2010. “The Architecture and Conduct of Intelligence in Ethiopia (1974-1991).” International Journal of Ethiopian Studies 5, no. 1: 39–70. At www.jstor.org/stable/41757573.Google Scholar
Miller, Edward. 2013. Misalliance: Ngo Dinh Diem, the United States, and the Fate of South Vietnam. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mlechin, Leonid Mikhailovich. 2006. Brezhnev. Moscow, Russia: Prospekt.Google Scholar
Odom, William E. 1992. On Internal War: American and Soviet Approaches to Third World Clients and Insurgents. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Oliker, Olga. 2011. Building Afghanistan’s Security Forces in Wartime: The Soviet Experience. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Operations Coordinating Board, US National Security Council. 1955. “Report to the National Security Council Pursuant to NSC Action 1290-d.” November 23, 1955. Top Secret. Declassified 07/16/2010. Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library.Google Scholar
O’Rourke, Lindsey A. 2018. Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pepinsky, Thomas. 2014. “The Institutional Turn in Comparative Authoritarianism.” British Journal of Political Science 44, no. 3: 631–53. doi:10.1017/S0007123413000021.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Papers of Kennedy, John F.. 1961. Presidential Papers. President’s Office Files. Departments and Agencies. Justice: Counter Insurgency (US Army report), May 22. “Counter Insurgency Operations: A Handbook for the Suppression of Communist Guerrilla/Terrorist Operations.” JFKPOF-080-014. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum.Google Scholar
Papers of Kennedy, John F.. 1962. Presidential Papers. National Security Files. Meetings and Memoranda. National Security Action Memoranda [NSAM]: NSAM 134, “Report on Internal Security Situation in South America.” JFKNSF-335-013. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum.Google Scholar
Quinlivan, James T. 1999. “Coup-Proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East.” International Security 24, no. 2: 131–65. doi:10.1162/016228899560202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rabe, Stephen G. 2016. The Killing Zone: The United States Wages Cold War in Latin America, 2nd ed. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Reuter, Christoph. 2015. “Secret Files Reveal the Structure of Islamic State.” Der Spiegel, April 18. At http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/islamic-state-files-show-structure-of-islamist-terror-group-a-1029274.html, accessed April 6, 2020.Google Scholar
Reuters. 2019. “Bolivian Military Asks Morales to Resign to Ensure Stability.” November 10. At https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-election-military-stability/bolivian-military-asks-morales-to-resign-to-ensure-stability-idUSKBN1XK0KQ, accessed April 6, 2020.Google Scholar
Roessler, Philip. 2016. Ethnic Politics and State Power in Africa: The Logic of the Coup-Civil War Trap. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roshchin, S. K. 1999. Politicheskaya istoriya Mongolii (1921–1940 gg.) [The Political History of Mongolia, 1921–1940]. Moscow, Russia: IV RAN.Google Scholar
Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, 2nd ed. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Sassoon, Joseph. 2012. Saddam Hussein’s Ba’th Party: Inside an Authoritarian Regime. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Searcey, Dionne. 2019. “Coup Attempt in Gabon is Thwarted, Government Says.” New York Times, January 7. At https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/world/africa/gabon-coup-ali-bongo-ondimba.html, accessed April 6, 2020.Google Scholar
Shoemaker, Christopher C., and Spanier, John. 1984. Patron-Client State Relationships: Multilateral Crises in the Nuclear Age. New York, N.Y.: Praeger.Google Scholar
Shurkin, Michael, John Gordon, IV, Frederick, Bryan, and Christopher, G. Pernin. 2017. Building Armies, Building Nations: Toward a New Approach to Security Force Assistance. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singh, Naunihal. 2014. Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Sinno, Abdulkader H. 2008. Organizations at War in Afghanistan and Beyond. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Song, Wonjun, and Wright, Joseph. 2018. “The North Korean Autocracy in Comparative Perspective.” Journal of East Asian Studies 18, no. 2: 157–80. doi: 10.1017/jea.2018.8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spanier, John. 1991. American Foreign Policy since World War II, 12th ed. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Sudduth, Jun Koga. 2017. “Coup Risk, Coup-Proofing and Leader Survival.” Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 1: 3–15. doi: 10.1177/0022343316676885.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Talmadge, Caitlin. 2015. The Dictator’s Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taubman, William. 2017. Gorbachev: His Life and Times. New York, N.Y.: W. W. Norton & Co.Google Scholar
Taylor, Brian D. 2003. Politics and the Russian Army: Civil-Military Relations, 1689–2000. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thyne, Clayton, Powell, Jonathan, Parrott, Sarah, and VanMeter, Emily. 2018. “Even Generals Need Friends: How Domestic and International Reactions to Coups Influence Regime Survival.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 7: 1406–32. doi: 10.1177/0022002716685611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tiruneh, Andargachew. 1993. The Ethiopian Revolution, 1974–1987: A Transformation from an Aristocratic to a Totalitarian Autocracy. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolstrup, Jakob, Aagaard Seeberg, Michael, and Grøndahl Glavind, Johanne. 2019. “Signals of Support from Great Power Patrons and the Use of Repression during Nonviolent Protests.” Comparative Political Studies 52, no. 4: 514–43. doi: 10.1177/0010414018784047.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tullock, Gordon. 1987. Autocracy. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
US, CIA. 1951. “Soviet Control of the European Satellites and Their Contribution to Soviet Power.” National Intelligence Estimate, October 25. Top Secret; Declassified Nov. 27, 1999. CREST no.: CIA-RDP79R01012A000900020004-5.Google Scholar
US, CIA. 1978. National Intelligence Daily Cable; October 16; Top Secret; Declassified Nov. 16, 2006. CREST no.: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010024-2.Google Scholar
US, CIA. 1984. “The USSR and the Third World.” National Intelligence Estimate, 11–10/2-84; Director of Central Intelligence; September 19; Secret; Declassified Aug. 5, 2010. CREST no.: CIA-RDP87T00126R000600630007-8.Google Scholar
US, CIA. 1988a. “Afghanistan: Regime Military and Political Capabilities after the Soviet Withdrawal.” Intelligence Assessment; Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis; October 1; Secret; Declassified Aug. 27, 2012. CREST no.: CIA-RDP89S01450R000500510001-6.Google Scholar
US, CIA. 1988b. “Supporting Allies under Insurgent Challenge: The Soviet Experience in Africa.” Research Paper; Office of Soviet Analysis and Office of Global Issues; February; Secret; Declassified Nov. 14, 2012. CREST no.: CIA-RDP07C00121R001000530001-0.Google Scholar
Vogt, Manuel, Bormann, Nils-Christian, Rüegger, Seraina, Cederman, Lars-Erik, Hunziker, Philipp, and Girardin, Luc. 2015. “Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict: The Ethnic Power Relations Data Set Family.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 7: 1327–42. doi: 10.1177/0022002715591215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Westad, Odd Arne. 2005. The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Westad, Odd Arne. 2017. The Cold War: A World History. New York, N.Y.: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Wright, Joseph. 2019. “The Latent Characteristics that Structure Autocratic Rule.” Political Science Research and Methods. doi: 10.1017/psrm.2019.50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Joseph, Frantz, Erica, and Geddes, Barbara. 2015. “Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival.” British Journal of Political Science 45, no. 2: 287–306. doi: 10. 1017/S0007123413000252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yom, Sean L. 2015. From Resilience to Revolution: How Foreign Interventions Destabilize the Middle East. New York, N.Y.: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zubok, Vladislav M. 2009. A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev. Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Casey Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OWGEAR
Link