Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T04:45:24.599Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Diminished Expectations

Redistributive Preferences in Truncated Welfare States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2018

Alisha C. Holland

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

In Latin America, the relationship between income and support for redistribution is weak and variable despite the region's extreme income inequality. This article shows that this condition is rooted in the truncated structure of many Latin American welfare states. Heavy spending on contributory social insurance for formal-sector workers, flat or regressive subsidies, and informal access barriers mean that social spending does far less for the poor in Latin America than it does in advanced industrial economies. Using public opinion data from across Latin America and original survey data from Colombia, the author demonstrates that income is less predictive of attitudes in the countries and social policy areas in which the poor gain less from social expenditures. Social policy exclusion leads the poor to doubt that they will benefit from redistribution, thereby dampening their support for it. The article reverses an assumption in political economy models that welfare exclusion unleashes demands for greater redistribution. Instead, truncation reinforces skepticism about social policy helping the poor. Welfare state reforms to promote social inclusion are essential to strengthen redistributive coalitions.

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 70 , Issue 4 , October 2018 , pp. 555 - 594
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2018 

Footnotes

*

I am grateful to Andy Baker, Sarah Berens, Charlotte Cavaillé, Emily Clough, David Doyle, Yanilda González, Frances Hagopian, Peter Hall, Torben Iversen, Kyle Jaros, Herbert Kitschelt, Steven Levitsky, Juan Pablo Luna, Brian Palmer-Rubin, Ben Ross Schneider, Hillel Soifer, Glen Weyl, Erik Wibbels; three anonymous reviewers; the editors of World Politics; and participants at workshops at Duke University, Harvard University, the American Political Science Association, and the Latin American Studies Association for helpful comments on previous versions. Sam Maeglin, Lucy Msall, and Madai Urteaga provided excellent research assistance. I thank the Latin American Public Opinion Project and its major supporters (the United States Agency for International Development, the Inter- American Development Bank, and Vanderbilt University) for making the data available and for a small research grant. A National Science Foundation graduate research fellowship (DEG 0644491) and dissertation improvement grant (1263778) supported the field research and data collection in Colombia.

Replication data for this article are available at Holland 2018a.

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Glaeser, Edward L.. 2004. Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe: A World of Difference. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Ansell, Ben W., and Samuels, David J.. 2015. Inequality and Democratization: An Elite–Competition Approach. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Barrientos, Armando. 2004. “Latin America: Towards a Liberal–Informal Welfare Regime.” In Gough, Ian and Wood, Geof, eds., Insecurity and Welfare Regimes in Asia, Africa, and Latin America: Social Policy in Development Contexts. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press: 121–68. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511720239.006.Google Scholar
Barrientos, Armando. 2010. “Eradicating Extreme Poverty: The Chile Solidario Programme.” In Lawson, David, Hulme, David, Matin, Imran, and Moor, Karen, eds., What Works for the Poorest? Poverty Reduction Programmes for the World's Extreme Poor. Rugby, UK: Practical Action Publishing: 135–48. doi: 10.3362/9781780440439.008.Google Scholar
Bean, Clive, and Papadakis, Elim. 1998. “A Comparison of Mass Attitudes towards the Welfare State in Different Institutional Regimes, 1985–1990.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 10, no. 3: 211–36. doi: 10.1093/ijpor/10.3.211.Google Scholar
Beramendi, Pablo, and Rehm, Philipp. 2016. “Who Gains, Who Gives? Progressivity and Preferences.” Comparative Political Studies 49, no. 4: 529–63. doi: 10.1177/0010414015617961.Google Scholar
Blofield, Merike, and Luna, Juan Pablo. 2011. “Public Opinion on Income Inequalities in Latin America.” In Blofield, Merike, ed., The Great Gap: Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Latin America. University Park, Pa.: Pennsylvania State University Press: 147–82.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bradley, David, Huber, Evelyne, Stephanie, Moller, and François, Nielsen. 2003. “Distribution and Redistribution in Postindustrial Democracies.” World Politics 55, no. 2 ( January): 193–228. doi: 10.1353/wp.2003.0009.Google Scholar
Bril–Mascarenhas, Tomás, and Post, Alison E.. 2015. “Policy Traps: Consumer Subsidies in Post–Crisis Argentina.” Studies in Comparative International Development 50, no. 1: 98–120. doi: 10.1007/s12116–014–9158–y.Google Scholar
Corbacho, Ana, Cibils, Vicente Fretes, and Lora, Eduardo, eds. 2013. More than Revenue: Taxation as a Development Tool. New York, N.Y.: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Cramer, Brian D., and Kaufman, Robert R.. 2011. “Views of Economic Inequality in Latin America.” Comparative Political Studies 44, no. 9: 1206–37. doi: 10.1177/0010414010392171.Google Scholar
De Ferranti, David, Perry, Guillermo E., Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Walton, Michael. 2004. Inequality in Latin America: Breaking with History? Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications.Google Scholar
De La, O, L., Ana 2015. Crafting Policies to End Poverty in Latin America: The Quiet Transformation. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
De La, O, L., Ana, and Rodden, Jonathan A.. 2008. “Does Religion Distract the Poor? Income and Issue Voting Around the World.” Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 4–5: 437–76. doi: 10.1177/0010414007313114.Google Scholar
Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estádistica. 2011. Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares. At https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas–portema/mercado–laboral/empleo–y–desempleo/geih–historicos, accessed June 17, 2018.Google Scholar
Diaz–Cayeros, Alberto, Estévez, Federico, and Magaloni, Beatriz. 2016. The Political Logic of Poverty Relief: Electoral Strategies and Social Policy in Mexico. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Díaz–Cayeros, Alberto, and Magaloni, Beatriz. 2009. “Aiding Latin America's Poor.” Journal of Democracy 20, no. 4: 36–48. doi: 10.1353/jod.0.0115.Google Scholar
Dion, Michelle L., and Birchfield, Vicki. 2010. “Economic Development, Income Inequality, and Preferences for Redistribution.” International Studies Quarterly 54, no. 2: 315–34. doi: 10.1111/j.1468–2478.2010.00589.x.Google Scholar
Esping–Andersen, Gøsta. 1990. The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Feierherd, German, Schiumerini, Luis, and Stokes, Susan. 2017. “When Do the Wealthy Support Redistribution? Inequality Aversion in Buenos Aires.” British Journal of Political Science, 1–13. doi: 10.1017/S0007123417000588.Google Scholar
Ferwerda, Jeremy. 2015. “The Politics of Proximity: Local Redistribution in Developed Democracies.” Ph.D. diss., Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/101809, accessed July 1, 2018.Google Scholar
Garay, Candelaria. 2016. Social Policy Expansion in Latin America. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gaviria, Alejandro. 2007. “Social Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution in Latin America.” Economía 8, no. 1: 55–96. doi: 10.1353/eco.2008.0003.Google Scholar
Gaviria, Alejandro, Medina, Carlos, and Mejía, Carolina. 2006. “Evaluating the Impact of Health Care Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice.” CEDEWorking Paper 2006–06. At https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/components/com_booklibrary/ebooks/d2006–06.pdf, accessed April 12, 2018.Google Scholar
Gaviria, Alejandro, and Tovar, Jorge. 2016. “El potencial de la política de vivienda en Colombia.” In Ensayos sobre Política de Vivienda. Bogotá, Colombia: Asobancaria: 51–138.Google Scholar
Giedion, Ursula, and Uribe, Manuela Villar. 2009. “Colombia's Universal Health Insurance System.” Health Affairs 28, no. 3: 853–63. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.3.853.Google Scholar
Gingrich, Jane, and Ansell, Ben. 2012. “Preferences in Context: Micro Preferences, Macro Contexts, and the Demand for Social Policy.” Comparative Political Studies 45, no. 12: 1624–54. doi: 10.1177/0010414012463904.Google Scholar
Gough, Ian, and Wood, Geof, eds. 2008 . Insecurity and Welfare Regimes in Asia, Africa, and Latin America: Social Policy in Development Contexts. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, and Kaufman, Robert R.. 2008. Development, Democracy, and Welfare States: Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, Kaufman, Robert R., and Long, James D.. 2013. “Income, Occupation, and Preferences for Redistribution in the Developing World.” Studies in Comparative International Development 48, no. 2: 113–40. doi: 10.1007/s12116–013–9129–8.Google Scholar
Holland, Alisha C. 2017. Forbearance as Redistribution: The Politics of Informal Welfare in Latin America. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Holland, Alisha C. 2018a. Replication files for “Diminished Expectations: Redistributive Preferences in Truncated Welfare States.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. doi: 10.7910/DVN/GTIOIU.Google Scholar
Holland, Alisha C. 2018b. Supplementary material for “Diminished Expectations: Redistributive Preferences in Truncated Welfare States.” doi: 10.1017/S0043887118000096.Google Scholar
Holland, Alisha C., and Schneider, Ben Ross. 2017. “Easy and Hard Redistribution: The Political Economy of Welfare States in Latin America.” Perspectives on Politics 15, no. 4: 988–1006. doi: 10.1017/S1537592717002122.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne, and Stephens, John D.. 2012a. Democracy and the Left: Social Policy and Inequality in Latin America. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne, and D., John 2012b. Latin America and the Caribbean Political Dataset, 1945–2012. University of North Carolina. At http://huberandstephens.web.unc.edu/common–works/data/, accessed June 16, 2018.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy, and Brill, Robert. 2016. “‘Documents, Please’: Advances in Social Protection and Birth Certification in the Developing World.” World Politics 68, no. 2 (April): 191–228. doi: 10.1017/S0043887115000465.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy, and Sugiyama, Natasha Borges. 2009. “Democracy and Social Policy in Brazil: Advancing Basic Needs, Preserving Privileged Interests.” Latin American Politics and Society 51, no. 2: 29–58. doi: 10.1111/j.1548–2456.2009.00047.x.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 2017. World Revenue Longitudinal Data (WoRLD). At https://data.world/imf/world–revenue–longitudinal–dat, accessed July 3, 2018.Google Scholar
Iversen, Torben, and Soskice, David. 2006. “Electoral Institutions and the Politics of Coalitions: Why Some Democracies Redistribute More Than Others.” American Political Science Review 100, no. 2: 165–81. doi: 10.1017/S0003055406062083.Google Scholar
Kasara, Kimuli, and Suryanarayan, Pavithra. 2016. “Bureaucratic Capacity and Class Voting: Evidence from Across the World and the United States.” Paper presented at the Duke University Conference on Redistributive Preferences, Durham, April 29–30, 2016. At https://sites.duke.edu/preferencesoverredistribution/files/2016/04/Kasara_Suri_bureaucrratic–capacity–and–class–voting–150416.pdf, accessed May 2, 2018.Google Scholar
Kaufman, Robert R. 2009. “The Political Effects of Inequality in Latin America: Some Inconvenient Facts.” Comparative Politics 41, no. 3: 359–79. doi: 10.5129/001041509X12911362972359.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert, Hawkins, Kirk A., Luna, Juan Pablo, Rosas, Guillermo, and Zechmeister, Elizabeth J.. 2010. Latin American Party Systems. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Korpi, Walter, and Palme, Joakim. 1998. “The Paradox of Redistribution and Strategies of Equality: Welfare State Institutions, Inequality, and Poverty in the Western Countries.” American Sociological Review 63, no. 5: 661–87. doi: 10.2307/2657333.Google Scholar
Kruks–Wisner, Gabrielle. 2018. “The Pursuit of Social Welfare: Citizen Claim–Making in Rural India.” World Politics 70, no. 1 ( January): 122–63. doi: 10.1017/S0043887117000193.Google Scholar
Kuziemko, Ilyana, Buell, Ryan W., Reich, Taly, and Norton, Michael I.. 2014. “‘Last–Place Aversion’: Evidence and Redistributive Implications.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 1: 105–49. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjt035.Google Scholar
Kyle, Jordan. 2018. “Local Corruption and Popular Support for Fuel Subsidy Reform in Indonesia.” Comparative Political Studies. doi: 10.1177/0010414018758755.Google Scholar
Levy, Santiago, and Schady, Norbert. 2013. “Latin America's Social Policy Challenge: Education, Social Insurance, Redistribution.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no. 2: 193–218. doi: 10.1257/jep.27.2.193.Google Scholar
Lindert, Peter H. 2004. Growing Public: Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Linos, Katerina, and West, Martin. 2003. “Self–Interest, Social Beliefs, and Attitudes to Redistribution: Re–Addressing the Issue of Cross–National Variation.” European Sociological Review 19, no. 4: 393–409. doi: 10.1093/esr/19.4.393.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo, and Soifer, Hillel David. 2017. “Capturing Sub–National Variation in State Capacity: A Survey–Based Approach.” American Behavioral Scientist 61, no. 8: 887–907. doi: 10.1177/0002764217720964.Google Scholar
Lustig, Nora, Pessino, Carola, and Scott, John. 2014. “The Impact of Taxes and Social Spending on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay: Introduction to the Special Issue.” Public Finance Review 42, no. 3: 287–303. doi: 10.1177/1091142113506931.Google Scholar
Mahler, Vincent A. 2010. “Government Inequality Reduction in Comparative Perspective: A Cross–National Study of the Developed World.” Polity 42, no. 4: 511–41. doi: 10.1057/pol.2010.14.Google Scholar
Mares, Isabela. 2005. “Social Protection Around the World: External Insecurity, State Capacity, and Domestic Political Cleavages.” Comparative Political Studies 38, no. 6: 623–51. doi: 10.1177/0010414004274403.Google Scholar
Mares, Isabela, and Young, Lauren. 2016. “Buying, Expropriating, and Stealing Votes.” Annual Review of Political Science 19: 267–88. doi: 10.1146/annurevpolisci–060514–120923.Google Scholar
Medina, Carlos, Núñez, Jairo, and Tamayo, Jorge Andrés. 2013. “The Unemployment Subsidy Program in Colombia: An Assessment.” IDB Working Paper 369. Washington, D.C.: Interamerican Development Bank. At: https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/4622, accessed April 12, 2018.Google Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H., and Richard, Scott F.. 1981. “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government.” Journal of Political Economy 89, no. 5: 914–27. doi: 10.1086/261013.Google Scholar
Milanovic, Branko. 2000. “The Median–Voter Hypothesis, Income Inequality, and Income Redistribution: An Empirical Test with the Required Data.” European Journal of Political Economy 16, no. 3: 367–410. doi: 10.1016/S0176–2680(00)00014–8.Google Scholar
Moene, Karl Ove, and Wallerstein, Michael. 2001. “Inequality, Social Insurance, and Redistribution.” American Political Science Review 95, no. 4: 859–74. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/3117718.Google Scholar
Moene, Karl Ove, and Wallerstein, Michael. 2003. “Earnings Inequality and Welfare Spending: A Disaggregated Analysis.” World Politics 55, no. 4 ( July): 485–516. doi: 10.1353/wp.2003.0022.Google Scholar
Moller, Lars Christian. 2012. “Fiscal Policy in Colombia: Tapping Its Potential for a More Equitable Society.” Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 6092. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. At: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/287881468242403748/Fiscal–policy–in–Colombia–tapping–its–potential–for–a–more–equitable–society, accessed April 12, 2018.Google Scholar
Morgan, Jana, and Kelly, Nathan J.. 2010. “Explaining Public Attitudes toward Fighting Inequality in Latin America.” Poverty and Public Policy 2, no. 3: 79– 111. doi: 10.2202/1944–2858.1091.Google Scholar
Morgan, Jana, and Kelly, Nathan J.. 2017. “Social Patterns of Inequality, Partisan Competition, and Latin American Support for Redistribution.” Journal of Politics 79, no. 1: 193–209. doi: 10.1086/687412.Google Scholar
Morrison, Kevin M. 2009. “Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability.” International Organization 63, no. 1: 107–38. doi: 10.1017/S0020818309090043.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo. 1993. “On the State, Democratization, and Some Conceptual Problems: A Latin American View with Glances at Some Postcommunist Countries.” World Development 21, no. 8: 1355–69. doi: 10.1016/0305–750X(93)90048–E.Google Scholar
Otero Bahamon, Silvia. 2016. “When the State Minds the Gap: The Politics of Subnational Inequality in Latin America's Social Development.” Ph.D. diss., Northwestern University.Google Scholar
Perotti, Roberto. 1996. “Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say.” Journal of Economic Growth 1, no. 2: 149–87. doi: 10.1007/BF00138861.Google Scholar
Pierson, Paul. 1993. “When Effect Becomes Cause: Policy Feedback and Political Change.” World Politics 45, no. 4 ( July): 595–628. doi: 10.2307/2950710.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 1971. Regulating the Poor: The Functions of Public Welfare. New York, N.Y.: Pantheon Books.Google Scholar
Pontusson, Jonas. 2005. Inequality and Prosperity: Social Europe vs. Liberal America. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Pribble, Jennifer. 2013. Welfare and Party Politics in Latin America. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Rehm, Philipp, Hacker, Jacob S., and Schlesinger, Mark. 2012. “Insecure Alliances: Risk, Inequality, and Support for the Welfare State.” American Political Science Review 106, no. 2: 386–406. doi: 10.1017/S0003055412000147.Google Scholar
Rizzo, Tesalia. 2018. “When Clients Exit: Breaking the Clientelistic Feedback Loop.” Working Paper. At www.tesaliarizzo.com/research/, accessed May 1, 2018.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2002. “Social Inequalities without Class Cleavages in Latin America's Neoliberal Era.” Studies in Comparative International Development 36, no. 4: 3–33. doi: 10.1007/BF02686331.Google Scholar
Romer, Thomas. 1975. “Individual Welfare, Majority Voting, and the Properties of a Linear Income Tax.” Journal of Public Economics 4, no. 2: 163–85. doi: 10.1016/0047–2727(75)90016–X.Google Scholar
Rueda, David, and Stegmueller, Daniel. 2016. “The Externalities of Inequality: Fear of Crime and Preferences for Redistribution in Western Europe.” American Journal of Political Science 60, no. 2: 472–89. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12212.Google Scholar
Skoufias, Emmanuel, Lindert, Kathy, and Shapiro, Joseph. 2010. “Globalization and the Role of Public Transfers in Redistributing Income in Latin America and the Caribbean.” World Development 38, no. 6: 895–907. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.02.014.Google Scholar
Soifer, Hillel David. 2013. “State Power and the Economic Origins of Democracy.” Studies in Comparative International Development 48, no. 1: 1–22. doi: 10.1007/s12116–012–9122–7.Google Scholar
Solt, Frederick. 2016. “The Standardized World Income Inequality Database.” Social Science Quarterly 97, no. 5: 1267–81. doi: 10.1111/ssqu.12295.Google Scholar
Soss, Joe, and Schram, Sanford F.. 2007. “A Public Transformed? Welfare Reform as Policy Feedback.” American Political Science Review 101, no. 1: 111–27. doi: 10.1017/S0003055407070049.Google Scholar
Trump, Kris–Stella. 2017. “Income Inequality Influences Perceptions of Legitimate Income Differences.” British Journal of Political Science, 1–24. doi: 10.1017/S0007123416000326.Google Scholar
Wibbels, Erik, and Ahlquist, John S.. 2011. “Development, Trade, and Social Insurance.” International Studies Quarterly 55, no. 1: 125–49. doi: 10.1111/j.1468–2478.2010.00638.x.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2017. Worldwide Governance Indicators. At https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide–governance–indicators, accessed July 3, 2018.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2018. ASPIRE: The Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity. At http://datatopics.worldbank.org/aspire/, accessed May 25, 2018.Google Scholar
Zaller, John, and Feldman, Stanley. 1992. “A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences.” American Journal of Political Science 36, no. 3: 579–616. doi: 10.2307/2111583.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Holland supplementary material

Holland supplementary material 1

Download Holland supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 311.7 KB
Supplementary material: File

Holland supplementary material

Holland supplementary material 2

Download Holland supplementary material(File)
File 16.1 KB