Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 June 2011
Almost none of the conditions that, according to the latest research, favor democratic durability were present in Western Europe between the world wars. Yet only four Western European states became dictatorships during this period, whereas the others remained democratic despite economic crisis, an unhelpful international system, and the lure of nondemocratic alternatives. Several recent works offer new explanations for this pattern of interwar outcomes. Insofar as these works analyze the entire universe of Western European cases, they represent an important methodological advance. However, they remain too wedded to a class-coalitional framework to provide both a parsimonious and a historically accurate account of why democracy collapsed in some states but not in others. This article proposes an alternative explanatory framework that focuses on how political parties can shape association life in such a way as to support or undermine democracy.
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5 Western Europe lends itself especially well to the study of variation in the process of democratization. During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries all of the states located there—with the exception of Finland, Ireland, and Austria—were autonomous polities with borders largely unchanged from 1815 through 1939, that is, throughout the whole period of liberalization and first-wave democratization. The states newly created after 1918, whether in Western, Central, or Eastern Europe, faced very different problems of democratization and democratic consolidation compared with the longer-established states of Western Europe and hence, in my view, should be treated as a separate universe of cases (on this issue, see also the discussion in fn. 7). In addition, those twelve longer-established Western European polities—Great Britain, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Portugal—shared a common cultural, religious, and political heritage that set them apart from the Orthodox and Muslim lands to the east and southeast. Since it is important to hold as many factors constant as possible when attempting to explain divergent outcomes, the commonalities just mentioned speak in favor of analyzing together the fates of the twelve longer-established Western European states during the interwar period.
6 Przeworski and Limongi have found that “[t]he probability that a democracy will die during any particular year in a country with an income above $4,000 [in 1985 U.S. dollars at purchasing power parity] is practically zero,” yet the GDP per capita of all Western European countries throughout the in-terwar period appears to have been below this level, lying instead between about 11,500 and $3,500. See Przeworski and Limongi (fn. 2), 166, 173; and also Bairoch, Paul, “Europe's Gross National Product, 1800–1975,” Journal ofEuropean Economic History 5 (Fall 1976), 296Google Scholar–97.
7 To these four could be added interwar Austria, but the literature is divided on whether to assign it to “Western Europe” (as Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens and Rokkan do) or “Eastern Europe” (as does Luebbert). It seems to me that excluding the Austrian case from a comparative study of first-wave democratization and democratic durability in Western Europe before 1939 is the more reasonable option. I say this not because Austria is part of the “East” but because, like Ireland, Finland, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary (all of which arguably belonged to the West), it was essentially a new state created in the aftermath of World War I. It was very different in its borders, population, and form of government from prewar Austria-Hungary. In general, I find the argument convincing that such new post-1918 states faced very different pressures and challenges during the interwar years than did those states already in existence before the war and that therefore they should be examined separately. (See fn. 5.) Hence while the Austrian case will be mentioned in my discussion of Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens's and Rokkan's work, it will not be included in my concluding theoretical suggestions.
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15 In a somewhat confusing way, the authors apply the term “bourgeoisie” only to industrial capitalists, using “middle classes” for white-collar employees, professionals, shopkeepers, and other groups that fall between the landed elite on the one hand and workers and peasants/farmers on the other.
16 Nor is this claim made more plausible by taking into account the four “advanced capitalist countries” from outside Europe also examined by the authors (the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), for their discussion of these cases mentions no working-class role in democratization except in Australia. Their subsequent analysis of evidence drawn from other areas of the world forces Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens to retreat ever further from their initial desire to assign the working class a vanguard role in first- and second-wave democratization. Thus they admit (p. 181) that “[i]f one analyzes the class forces behind successful and failed attempts to install democratic regimes [in Latin America], the middle classes emerge as the crucial forces behind the alliances effecting initial breakthroughs to restricted democracy and, in collaboration with the working class, to full democracy” (p.181). And the authors are forced to explain the “democratic exceptionalism” of Costa Rica and the English-speaking Caribbean, not by working-class strength or activism, but rather by, respectively, the presence of a prosperous agrarian middle class (p. 259) and the positive legacy of British colonialism, which allowed the emergence of a robust civil society (pp. 265–66,281).
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17 I would like to thank John Zysman and David Collier for bringing this very significant working paper to my attention. Ruth Berins Collier has now developed the argument further in her forthcoming book, Between Elite Negotiation and Working-Class Triumph: Labor and Democratization in Europe and South America.
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19 This is even more true of their discussion of the Austrian case, a detailed evaluation of which has not been included here because it is not, in my view, strictly comparable to the instances of interwar breakdown among those Western European states that already existed before 1918 (see fn. 7). In several places on page 118, the authors admit the extent to which Austria presents problems for their general argument.
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