Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 June 2011
Textbook accounts of the Anglo-French trade agreement of 1860 argue that it heralded the beginning of a liberal trading order. This alleged success holds much interest from a modern policy point of view, for it rested on bilateral negotiations and most-favored-nation clauses. With the help of new data on international trade (the RICardo database), the authors provide empirical evidence and find that the treaty and subsequent network of MFN trade agreements coincided with the end of a period of unilateral liberalization across the world. They also find that it did not contribute to expanding trade at all. This is contrary to a deeply rooted belief among economists, economic historians, and political scientists. The authors draw a number of policy lessons that run counter to the conventional wisdom and raise skepticism toward the ability of bilateralism and MFN arrangements to promote trade liberalization.
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42 Ibid., 67. “Of course, the liberalization policy adopted by the United Kingdom was a key factor for this strong acceleration of trade. And it was especially so because, as we have seen, following Britain's success (British trade doubled between 1846 and 1856), almost all European nations, after France, liberalized their custom policy after 1860.”
43 Bairoch gives a list of European trading powers circa 1860 (in descending order): United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden. He excludes Holland because of “uncertainty in trade statistics,” adding that in 1860 it would have occupied the ninth or tenth place; Bairoch, “European Foreign Trade in the XlXth Century: The Development of the Value and Volume of Exports (Preliminary Results),” Journal of European Economic History 2, no. 1 (1973), 3. Note also that Bairoch's definition of “Germany” is unclear. Since systematic annual aggregate data for “Germany” are not available, we have excluded them from the sample in this section (although data for bilateral trade flows relating to Bremen, Hamburg, Liibeck, and Zollverein are included in the background data set for the regressions in Section IV). Our index thus covers nine of the ten major European trading nations of the time, plus the United States.
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59 It is not clear how this can be reconciled with the view that Britain was “laissez-faire.” If it was so, how could its concessions be more generous? And if Britain extended its concessions to France, why did it sign four MFN treaties (with Zollverein, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Belgium) in the following years?
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62 To be completely fair, Bairoch (fn. 38) and Lewis (fn. 38) do provide some partial aggregate numbers. As suggested, the evidence from these numbers did not quite square with the conventional view. That the conventional view failed to acknowledge the irrelevance of the 1860s in view of existing numbers only makes its enduring success more puzzling.
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64 As The Economist reminded its readers a few weeks after the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty was signed: “We [meaning England] cannot truthfully say to them [meaning France], 'If you will take our production free of duty, we will injure ourselves by taking yours free of duty,' because we believe that, by so taking those commodities, we shall not be injuring, but benefiting ourselves”; Economist, January 28, 1860.
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68 Ibid., 301–4, for a test of the assumption that MFN treaties reduce cooperative activity as measured by the number of treaties in effect for each country. As Pahre concludes: “the figures suggest that MFN clause inhibits treaty formation” (p. 305).
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