Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 June 2011
This article explores the sources of regime competitiveness in the post-cold war era through a structured comparison of regime trajectories in Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, for the period 1992–2004. An examination of these cases suggests the need for a fundamental rethinking of the commonly held view of the transition process—especially in countries that face relatively weak international democratizing pressures. Approaching these countries as unconsolidated autocracies rather than as simply emerging democracies draws attention to key sources of political competition that have largely been ignored in the literature on competitive regimes. Thus, competitive politics in Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine were rooted less in robust civil societies, strong democratic institutions, or leadership than in the inability of incumbents to maintain power or concentrate political control by preserving elite unity, controlling elections, and/or using force against opponents. Such ”pluralism by default” has been the outgrowth of the strength of anti-incumbent national identity and incumbent weakness as defined by a lack of know-how, ineffective incumbent organization, and/or the weakness of certain dimensions of state power.
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19 My codings here more or less match Freedom House scores for these countries with the exception of Moldova, which was scored as less democratic in the early and mid-1990s. This appears to be because Freedom House included in their score the autocratic regime in the breakaway region of Transnistr. In contrast, my analysis includes only the regime controlled by Chisinau.
20 A “high” score indicates that at least one of the activities is sufficiently high to eliminate uncertainty in the electoral process. A “moderate” score means that at least one of the activities is widespread enough to tilt the playing field seriously in favor of the incumbent—but not so much as to make the elections noncompetitive. For example, a moderate score reflects a level of vote stealing in the range of 5–10 percent (as in 1990s Serbia, Ukraine under Kuchma) that still leaves important opportunities for regime opponents—as opposed to the apparently much larger percentage in contemporary Azerbaijan and Belarus that make elections less meaningful.
21 A “high” score indicates the almost total absence of opposition views in large audience electronic media; a “moderate” score means that most electronic media is incumbent controlled but that there exist significant large audience media that openly criticize the government.
22 A highly weak opposition is one that has virtually no financing and/or organizational resources. A “moderate” weak opposition is one that has significant financial and organizational resources but is still seriously outmatched by the incumbent. Finally, a low score indicates an opposition that has roughly equal or greater financial and organizational resources than the incumbent.
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32 Experience here is measured by the number of national-level multicandidate elections undertaken by the incumbent or his/her party (no national election experience=low; l=moderate; more than l=high). Elite organization reflects the extent to which the incumbent is able to rely on partisan organization to maintain power. (Low = absence of virtually any allied formal or informal groups that directly support the incumbent; moderate = existence of numerous and loosely organized groups allied to executive; high = single, vertically integrated formal or informal organization with high discipline and close ties to the incumbent.) Finally, authoritarian state capacity reflects the size of the state and the economy it controls; degree of central control over security agencies and local governments (measured by the extent and openness of insubordination by lower-level officials); and the scope of state control over the economy (measured by the extent of privatization and de facto central state control over economic actors). Despite its relatively small size, Belarus is scored as high in the late 1990s because of strong patronage from Russia (see discussion below). The salience of anti-incumbent national identity is measured by the relative elite and popular support of national identity that can be framed in anti-incumbent terms. Variations between moderate and high reflect the relative strength of different (anti-Russian and pro-Russian) anti-incumbent national identities within Moldova and Ukraine across time (see discussion below).
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51 Foreign Broadcast Information Service SOV-96—233. Several security officials interviewed by the author questioned whether militia would have agreed to attack parliament.
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53 Thus, the imprisonment of former government official Mikhail Marynich was generally tied to the official's frequent visits to Moscow and Lukashenka's fears that he was secretly negotiating with Putin on how to unseat the president.
54 Opposition deputies were able to convince the police to take down all roadblocks within a day and a half after protests began. Author interview with official close to Yulia Tymoshenko, Kyiv, December 28,2004.
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