Considerations Affecting the Preparation of Standard Tables of Mortality

Synopsis

The first, introductory, section of the paper refers to the Committee's main report on the mortality of immediate annuitants in 1967-70 and to the features of the latest data which prevent it from recommending the preparation of a new standard table at present.

The second section describes the preliminary work which led to the suggestion of a graduation formula which appeared to fit the 1967-70 assured lives' data at each duration, and over the whole range of ages up to 90; the graduation, like the experience, showed decreasing mortality with increasing age up to age 28. This work included consideration of mortality from motor vehicle accidents at the ages either side of 20, where the shape of the curve differed from the population experience. It also examined ages 90 and over, to indicate the extent to which very late notification of deaths to the offices distorted the exposed to risk.

The third section describes the fitting, with the aid of a computer, of the formula suggested in the preceding section, in order to produce two alternative graduations, one with a two-year select period, the other a five-year select period. Below age 17, where the data were insufficient to indicate the underlying course of the mortality curve, an arbitrary extension of the graduations was made by reference to population experience. The graduations are compared with earlier tables in a short fourth section.

The fifth and final section examines the possibility of producing a new table for pensioners, a class of lives for which hitherto there has been no appropriate mortality yardstick. It concludes with recommendations for the preparation of experience tables for male and female pensioners based on the 1967-70 data for “lives”.