Note on War Mortality in Recent Campaigns, with Special reference to the German experience in the War of 1870–1871

Extract

The subject of War-Risk does not seem to have been discussed in actuarial circles since Mr. W. B. Hodge's papers on “The Mortality arising from Military Operations” appeared in the seventh volume of The Assurance Magazine. This admirable investigation, published in 1858, ends with the Crimean War; and considering the subsequent revolutionary changes in military science and tactics, a glance at the results of more recent campaigns may not be without interest.

The divergences of mortality characterising these campaigns preclude, as might be expected, the discovery of any general law of war mortality, and consequently the scientific calculation of extra premium to meet the corresponding risk. It seems as if, in the case of war, the Actuary must take a view of the whole surrounding circumstances, somewhat similar to that of a surveyor in fixing a premium for a fire insurance risk. Details of climate, of the season of the year, of the resources of the enemy, of the probable duration of the war, and of many other circumstances, alter the complexion of a military risk most materially, and must be carefully considered. Perhaps the most important question is the probable mortality from disease; a secondary consideration, the probable mortality from battle.