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The Construction and Selection of Predictive Scales, with Special Reference to Parasuicide

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Norman Kreitman  and
J. Foster
Norman Kreitman*
Affiliation:
MRC Unit for Epidemiological Studies in Psychiatry, University Department of Psychiatry, Royal Edinburgh Hospital, Morningside Park, Edinburgh EH10 5HF
J. Foster
Affiliation:
MRC Unit for Epidemiological Studies in Psychiatry, University Department of Psychiatry, Royal Edinburgh Hospital, Morningside Park, Edinburgh EH10 5HF
*
∗Correspondence
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Abstract

Issues concerning the use of predictive and screening instruments include the difficulties posed by temporal changes in the base rates for the behaviour of interest, the possible advantages of using three rather than the customary two risk categories, and the desirability of specifying in advance the proportional sizes of the risk subgroups. A method is proposed for constructing and assessing tripartite risk scales, and a new scale for predicting the repetition of parasuicide, with the results of a prospective validation study, is reported.

Type
Papers
Information
The British Journal of Psychiatry , Volume 159 , Issue 2 , August 1991 , pp. 185 - 192
Copyright
Copyright © 1991 The Royal College of Psychiatrists 

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