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Predicting Offender-Patients' Reconvictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2018

Clive Payne ,
Sarah McCabe  and
Nigel Walker
Clive Payne
Affiliation:
Research Services Unit, Nuffield College, Oxford, OX1 1NF
Sarah McCabe
Affiliation:
Oxford University Penal Research Unit, St. Cross Building, Manor Road, Oxford
Nigel Walker
Affiliation:
7 West Road, Cambridge, CB3 9DT
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Extract

In 1963–4 the Oxford University Penal Research Unit managed to collect information about 90 per cent of the offender-patients who were admitted to N.H.S. and Special Hospitals under hospital orders made by criminal courts: this cohort has been described in Crime and Insanity, Vol. II, by Walker and McCabe (1973). One of the by-products of the follow-up of these offender-patients was a rough and ready scoring system for predicting reconvictions (within a two-year follow-up) of 456 offender-patients who were allowed to leave hospital within a year of admission. A prediction system can be used to assist human decision-making (though it should not be a substitute for it)∗ and can also be used to assess the efficacy of measures—such as after-care—by seeing whether individuals with equal predicted reconviction-rates do better with than without the measure (Mannheim and Wilkins, 1955).

Type
Research Article
Information
The British Journal of Psychiatry , Volume 125 , Issue 584 , July 1974 , pp. 60 - 64
Copyright
Copyright © Royal College of Psychiatrists, 1974 

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