Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 December 2008
For those interested in understanding the role of government in modern life, important public policies have long been objects of close scrutiny. Traditionally, however, policies were treated only as outcomes that needed to be explained. More recently, there has been growing interest in the political consequences of policy development. Policies are no longer seen simply as effects, with attention focused on why these policies emerged. Policies have important repercussions as well: once adopted, they restructure the political and social environment that produced them.
1. For a range of approaches see Evans, Peter, Reuschemeyer, Dietrich, and Skocpol, Theda, eds., Bringing the State Back In (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985)Google Scholar; March, James G. and Olsen, Johan P., Rediscovering Institutions: The Organizational Basis of Politics (New York: Free Press, 1989)Google Scholar; North, Douglass C., Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990)Google Scholar; Shepsle, Kenneth A., “Studying Institutions: Some Lessons from the Rational Choice Approach,” Journal of Theoretical Politics, Vol. 1, No. 2, 04, 1989, 131–147Google Scholar; and Skowronek, Stephen, Building a New American State: The Expansion of Nalional Administrative Capacities, 1877–1920 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982)Google Scholar.
2. On the political strength of middle-class social programs, see Goodin, Robert K. and Grand, Julian Le, eds., Not Only the Poor: The Middle Classes and the Welfare State (London: Allen and Unwin, 1987)Google Scholar. Thatcher's attempts to reform the NHS are reviewed in Klein, Rudolf, The Politics of the NHS (London: Longman), 2nd Edition, 1989, Chaps. 6 and 7Google Scholar.
3. Heclo, Hugh, Modern Social Politics in Britain and Sweden (New Haven: Yale University Press), 1974, p. 315Google Scholar. An earlier (if somewhat imprecise) statement about the ways in which feedbacks operate is Lowi's, Theodore J. “American Business, Public Policy Case Studies, and Political Theory,” World Politics, Vol. 16, 1964, 667–715Google Scholar.
4. See, for example, Esping-Andersen, Gøsta, Politics Against Markets: The Social Democratic Road to Power (Princeton: Princeton University Press), 1985Google Scholar; Margaret Weir and Theda Skocpol, “State Structures and the Possibilities for ‘Keynesian’ Responses to the Great Depression in Sweden, Britain, and the United States,” in Peter Evans, Dietrich Reuschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol, eds., Bringing the State Back In, pp. 107–63; Vallely, Richard M., Radicalism in the States: The Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party and the American Political Economy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989)Google Scholar; and North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Development, chap. 11.
5. Heclo, Modern Social Politics, pp. 284–322. See also Orloff, Ann Shola and Skocpol, Theda, “‘Why Not Equal Protection?’: Explaining the Politics of Public Social Spending in Britain, 1900–1911, and the United States, 1880s–1920,” American Sociological Review, Vol.49, 1984, 726CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Peter Hall, “Policy Paradigms, Social Learning and the State: The Case of Economic Policy-Making in Britain,” Comparative Politics, forthcoming.
6. Simon, Herbert A., Models of Man (New York: Wiley, 1957)Google Scholar; Lindblom, Charles E., “The ‘Science’ of Muddling Through,” Public Administration Review, Vol. 19, 1959, 79–88Google Scholar; and March, James G., “Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice,” Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 9, 1978, 587–608Google Scholar.
7. Heclo, Modern Social Politics, p. 298.
8. On the importance of political entrepreneurs see Hardin, Russell, Collective Action (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982), pp. 35–37Google Scholar, and Moe, Terry M., The Organization of Interests: Incentives and the Internal Dynamics of Political Interest Groups (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980), pp. 37–39Google Scholar.
9. The distinctive burdens falling on political organizations heavily dependent on the mobilization of large numbers of individuals are clearly outlined in Offe, Claus and Wiesenthal, Helmut, “Two Logics of Collective Action,” in Offe, Claus, ed., Disorganized Capitalism (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1984), pp. 170–220Google Scholar. Although Offe and Wiesenthal's presentation focuses on the particular problems confronting labor unions, much of the analysis can be extended to other labor-intensive mobilization efforts.
10. See the important recent application of this argument to congressional decision-making in Arnold, R. Douglas, The Logic of Congressional Action (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990)Google Scholar.
11. Peter J. Katzenstein, “Conclusion: Domestic Structures and Strategies of Foreign Economic Policy,” in Katzenstein, Peter J., ed., Between Power and Plenty: Foreign Economic Policies of Advanced Industrial States (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1978), pp. 295–336Google Scholar;Zysman, John, Governments, Markets and Growth: Financial Systems and the Politics of Industrial Change (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983)Google Scholar.
12. Weir and Skocpol, “‘Keynesian’ Responses to the Great Depression,” pp. 123–125 and 129–132.
13. On focusing events see Kingdom, John W., Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (Boston: Little, Brown, 1984), pp. 99–105Google Scholar.
14. Leonard, Herman B., Checks Unbalanced: The Quiet Side of Public Spending (New York: Basic Books, 1986), chap. 4Google Scholar.
15. On the lock-in process that yielded a relatively inefficient typewriter keyboard see David, Paul, “Clio and the Economics of Qwerty,” American Economic Review, Vol. 75, 1985, 332–337Google Scholar. See also Arthur, W. Brian, “Self-Reinforcing Mechanisms in Economics,” in Anderson, Philip W., Arrow, Kenneth J., and Pines, David, eds., The Economy as an Evolving Complex System (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1988)Google Scholar; and Arthur, W. Brian, “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events,” Economic Journal, Vol. 99, 1989, 116–131Google Scholar.
16. Jackson, Kenneth T., Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1985), esp. chap. 11Google Scholar. Danielson, Michael N., The Politics of Exclusion (New York: Columbia University Press, 1976)Google Scholar. For a more formal discussion see Kahn, Alfred E., “The Tyranny of Small Decisions,” Kyklos, 1966, 23–45Google Scholar.
17. Myles, John, “Postwar Capitalism and the Extension of Social Security Into a Retirement Wage,” in Weir, Margaret, Shola, Ann, Orloff, and Skocpol, Theda, eds., The Politics of Social Policy in the United States (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), pp. 265–284Google Scholar.
18. On the history of Social Security see esp. Achenbaum, W. Andrew, Social Security: Visions and Revisions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986)Google Scholar; Cates, Jerry, Insuring Inequality: Administrative Leadership in Social Security (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1983)Google Scholar; and Derthick, Martha, Policymaking for Social Security (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1979)Google Scholar.
19. On British pension development see Heclo, Hugh, Modern Social Politics in Britain and Sweden (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974), chap. 4Google Scholar, and O'Higgins, Michael, “Public/Private Interaction and Pension Provision,” in Rein, Martin and Rainwater, Lee, eds., Public/Private Interplay in Social Protection (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1986), pp. 99–148Google Scholar.
20. The Wilson government's 1969 plan was never introduced; it was moving through parliament when the Conservative party won the June 1970 election.
21. In 1980, 8.7% of the elderly participated in the means-tested Supplemental Security Income program, though the majority of these recipients also received Social Security benefits. Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, Background Material and Data on Programs Within the Jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means (Washington, D.C.: GPO, WMCP 102–9, 1991), p. 756.
22. In 1980, replacement rates for a pensioner couple averaged 66% of preretirement earnings in the United States but only 47% in Britain. Aldrich, Jonathan, “The Earnings Replacement Rate of Old-Age Benefits in 12 Countries, 1969–1980,” Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 11, 1982Google Scholar.
23. In 1981/82 19% of the elderly were in receipt of the means-tested supplementary pension. Department of Treasury, The Government's Expenditure Plans, 1983/4–1985/6 (London: HMSO, Cmnd 8789, 1983), p. 64.
24. Another “policy feedback” has probably played an even more important role. Holes in the Medicare health insurance program for the elderly allowed The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) to provide “medigap” insurance, offering an important “selective incentive” for individuals to join. Thanks to Kent Weaver for this point. See Day, Christine L., What Older Americans Think: Interest Groups and Aging Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990), pp. 25–26 and 65–66Google Scholar.
25. Figures for AARP from Day, What Older Americans Think, pp. 25–26. On the weakness of the British pensioner lobby see Grant, Wyn, Pressure Group Politics and Democracy in Britain (New York: Philip Allan, 1989)Google Scholar; and Whiteley, Paul F. and Winyard, Stephen J., Pressure for the Poor: The Poverty Lobby and Policy Making (London: Methuen, 1987)Google Scholar.
26. Ball, Robert M., “The Original Understanding on Social Security: Implications for Later Developments,” in Marmor, Theodore R. and Mashaw, Jerry L., eds., Social Security: Beyond the Rhetoric of Crisis (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. 25Google Scholar.
27. O'Higgins, “Public/Private Interaction,” p. 139. See also Hemming, Richard and Kay, John, “The Costs of the State Earnings-Related Pension Scheme,” Economics Journal, Vol. 92, 1982. 300–3211CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
28. Derthick, Policymaking for Social Security, chap. 19.
29. The Guardian, April 25, 1988, p. 8.
30. Report by the Government Actuary on the First Quinquennial Review (London: HMSO, HC Paper 445, 1982), p. 21.
31. London Times, March 28, 1986, p. 4.
32. Quoted in Sue Ward, “Pensions,” in Silburn, Richard, ed., The Future of Social Security (London: Fabian Society, 1985), pp. 34–35Google Scholar.
33. HM Treasury, The Next Ten Years: Public Expenditure and Taxation Into the 1990s (London: HMSO, Cmnd 9189, 1984), p. 14. The New York Times, January 24, 1984, p. 13a.
34. London Times, April 8, 1984, p. 1.
35. House of Commons, Hansard, April 2, 1984, Col. 653–6.
36. Deakin, Nicholas, The Politics of Welfare (London: Methuen, 1987), p. 139Google Scholar. Financial Times, February 7, 1985, p. 10.
37. Financial Times, February 11, 1985, p. 11.
38. DHSS, Reform of Social Security (London: HMSO, Cmnd 9517–9, 3 volumes, 1985)Google Scholar. “Green Papers” usually offer broad discussions of policy issues, while “White Papers” contain detailed legislative proposals.
39. The Economist, June 22, 1985, p. 25.
40. Financial Times, September 4, 1985, p. 11.
41. Davis, Evan et al. , 1985 Benefit Reviews: The Effects of the Proposals (London: Institute for Fiscal Studies, 1985), pp. 25–27Google Scholar. The Confederation of British Industry, not usually a strong defender of public social provision, provided even more pessimistic projections. If, as seemed likely, most personal pension investments went into safe, short-term assets, the eventual pensions would be less than half those offered by SERPS. Financial Times, September 20, 1985, p. 22.
42. Reform of Social Security, Cmnd. 9517, p. 25.
43. Financial Times, May 13, 1985, p. 32.
44. London Times, April 30, 1985, p. 12.
45. Financial Times, March 1, 1985, p. 6.
46. Financial Times, August 3, 1985, p. 4; September 5, p. 7; and September 12, p. 7.
47. DHSS, The Reform of Social Security: Program for Action (London: HMSO, Cmnd 9691, 1985)Google Scholar.
48. Among other changes, SERPS benefits would now be based on average lifetime earnings, rather than the best 20 years, though there would be some allowance for breaks in employment to care for children or the disabled: SERPS pensions would be equal to 20% of qualifying earnings, rather than 25%. Widows and widowers would be entitled to 50% rather than 100% of a deceased spouse's pension.
49. Rudolf Klein and Michael O'Higgins, ”Defusing the Crisis of the Welfare State: A New Interpretation,” in Marmor and Mashaw, eds., Social Security, pp. 216–218.
50. Author's calculations from data in Cmnd 9691, Technical Annex, Tables p1, p3, and p5; Hansard, February 21, 1986, Col. 384–88w, Tables P1A, P3A. and P5A: Hansard, January 17, 1986, Col. 743–44w.
51. The cost of these incentives in 1990/91 was estimated at £615 million. Report by the Government Actuary on the Drafts of the Social Security Benefits Up-Rating Order 1990 and the Social Security (Contributions) (Re-Rating) Order 1990 (London: HMSO), Cmnd 948, January 1990, appendix 7.
52. The Independent, December 5, 1990, p. 2. Hansard, May 23, 1989, p. 447w.
53. Figures in 1988 prices. Fry, Vanessa, Smith, Stephen, and White, Stuart, Pensions and the Public Purse: Public Spending Policies and Population Ageing (London: Institute for Fiscal Studies, 1990), p. 24Google Scholar.
54. The Economist, December 21, 1985, p. 15.
55. Light, Paul, Artful Work: The Politics of Social Security Reform (New York: Random House, 1985), p. 49Google Scholar.
56. Barrett, Lawrence I., Gambling With History: Reagan in the White House (New York: Doubleday, 1983), p. 155Google Scholar.
57. For example, J. J. Pickle, the Democratic chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee subcommittee with jurisdiction over Social Security, was working on his own package of major Social Security cuts.
58. Light, Artful Work, p. 121. For Stockman's recollections see Stockman, David, The Triumph of Politics (New York: Harper and Row, 1986), pp. 199–209Google Scholar.
59. Greider, Quoted in William, The Education of David Stockman and Other Americans (New York: E.P. Dutton, 1982), p. 46Google Scholar.
60. Ibid., p. 43.
61. Light, Artful Work, p. 121.
62. Stockman, Triumph of Politics, pp. 204–206. Barrett, Gambling with History, pp. 154–159.
63. On the administration's deliberations see Stockman, The Triumph of Politics, pp. 304–317; New York Times, September 21, 1981, p. A21, and New York Times, September 22, 1981, p. Al.
64. Neustadt, Richard E. and May, Earnest R., Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers (New York: Free Press, 1986), pp. 22–25Google Scholar.
65. For a detailed account of the negotiations, see Light, Artful Work, pp. 163–228.
66. This change had broad appeal because it could be sold as “all things to all people.” It could be called a benefit cut or a tax increase, but in fact it was a benefit cut. Quite simply, it meant that for those taxed the real value of benefits would decline.
67. Svahn, John A. and Ross, Mary, “Social Security Amendments of 1983: Legislative History and Summary of Provisions,” Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 46, No. 7, 1983, 44Google ScholarPubMed.
68. Aaron, Henry J., Bosworth, Barry P., and Burtless, Gary, Can America Afford to Grow Old? (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1989), p. 28Google Scholar.
69. For a detailed discussion of this episode see Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1985), pp. 441–457.
70. Wehr, Elizabeth and Cranford, John R., “Crippled Market Spurs Budget Breakthrough,” Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 10 24, 1987, p. 2571Google Scholar.
71. See, for example, King, Anthony, “Ideas, Institutions and the Policies of Governments,” British Journal of Political Science, 1973, pp. 291–313 and 409–423Google Scholar.
72. See especially the work of Walter Korpi, Gosta Esping-Andersen, and John Stephens cited in Shalev, Michael, “The Social Democratic Model and Beyond: Two Generations of Comparative Research on the Welfare State,” Comparative Social Research, Vol. 6, 1983, 315–351Google Scholar.
73. See, for example, Cutler, Lloyd, “To Form A Government,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 59, No. 1. 1980, pp. 126–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
74. The following draws on a more detailed evaluation of this issue in Paul Pierson and R. Kent Weaver, “Political Institutions and Loss Imposition: Pension Cutbacks in Canada, Great Britain and the United States,” in R. Kent Weaver and Bert Rockman, eds., Do Institutions Matter? (Washington, D.C.: Brookings), forthcoming.
75. House of Commons, Hansard, May 19, 1986, Col. 105. Even the reforms of the still-immature SERPS schemes have forced the government to absorb a significant share of the “double-payment” burden in order to limit the political outcry. According to the National Audit Office, by 1993, increased tax costs associated with the reform are expected to outweigh reduced expenditures on SERPS by £5.9 billion. The Independent, December 5, 1990, p. 2.
76. Peter J. Ferrara, for example, advocated radical privatization reforms through publications for two conservative think tanks, the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute.
77. Ferejohn, John A. and Kuklinski, James H., eds., Information and Democratic Processes (Urbana: University of Illinois Press), 1990Google Scholar. Powell, Walter W. and DiMaggio, Paul J., The New Institutionalism in Organizational Analysis (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991)Google Scholar.
78. Interestingly, within political science the idea of “lock-ins” (though focusing on institutions rather than policies) has mainly been utilized in the field of international relations. See, for example, Keohane, Robert O., After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984), pp. 100–106Google Scholar. Keohane draws on Arthur Stinchcombe's analysis of “sunk costs.” See Stinchcombe, , Constructing Social Theories (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1968), pp. 120–125Google Scholar.
79. Bachrach, Peter and Baratz, Morton, “Two Faces of Power,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 56, 1962, pp. 947–952CrossRefGoogle Scholar. This is one reason why comparative analysis is helpful for highlighting the political consequences of policy “lock-ins.” An analyst needs a comparative case where “lock-in” has not occurred to identify the political effects of policy feedbacks.
80. See Weaver, R. Kent, “The Politics of Blame Avoidance,” Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 61, 10–12 1986, pp. 371–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar.