Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T09:28:10.840Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Dynamic Model of U.S. Senator Approval, 1981–2000

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Jennifer L. Anderson
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Adam J. Newmark
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Abstract

Using survey data in the states from 1981 to 2000, we explore the nature of public sentiment toward members of the U.S. Senate, compare aggregate senator approval to congressional approval, and examine the impact of several factors that may influence approval of both senators and their legislative institution. We hypothesize that presidential approval, partisanship, consumer expectations, inter-branch discord, national scandals, and rally-around-the-flag events will influence both senator and congressional approval. We find evidence that supports the conventional argument that constituents “love” their senators but “hate” Congress. Senators appear to be relatively insulated from factors that sway presidential and congressional approval.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association, 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. “Explaining Senate Election Outcomes.” American Political Science Review 82:385403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Rosenthal, Howard. 1989. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Baker, Ross K. 1988. House and Senate. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.Google Scholar
Binder, Sarah A., and Smith, Steven S.. 1998. “Political Goals and Procedural Choice in the Senate.” Journal of Politics 60:398416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Born, Richard. 1990. “The Shared Fortunes of Congress and Congressmen: Members May Run from Congress, but They Can't Hide.” Journal of Politics 52:12231241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Durbin, J. 1970. “Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors Are Lagged Dependent Variables.” Econometrica 38:410421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durr, Robert H., Gilmour, John B., and Wolbrecht, Christina. 1997. “Explaining Congressional Approval.” American Journal of Political Science 41:175207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fenno, Richard F. Jr. 1975. “If, as Ralph Nader Says, Congress Is ‘The Broken Branch,‘ How Come We Love Our Congressmen So Much?” In Congress in Change: Evolution and Reform, ed. Ornstein, Norman J.. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Fenno, Richard F. Jr. 1978. Homestyle: House Members in their Districts. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan. 1998. “Estimating the Effect of Campaign Spending on Senate Election Outcomes Using Instrumental Variables.” American Political Science Review. 92:401411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, W. 2000. Econometric Analysis. 3rd ed. New York: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth. 1995. Congress as Public Enemy: Public Attitudes toward American Political Institutions. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth. 1998. “The Media's Role in Public Negativity toward Congress: Distinguishing Emotional Reactions and Cognitive Evaluations.” American Journal of Political Science 42:475498.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahn, Kim Fridkin, and Kenney, Patrick J.. 1997. “A Model of Candidate Evaluations in Senate Elections: The Impact of Campaign Intensity.” Journal of Politics 59:11731205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, Stanley Jr., and Mirer, Thad. 1974. “A Simple Act of Voting.” American Political Science Review 68:572591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Gerald H. 1971. “Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964.” American Political Science Review 65:131143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuklinski, James H., and West, Darrell M.. 1981. “Consumer Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections.” American Political Science Review 75:436447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Frances. 2000. “Senate Representation and Coalition Building in Distributive Politics.” American Political Science Review 94:5972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lodge, Milton, McGraw, Kathleen M., and Stroh, Patrick. 1989. “An Impression-Driven Model of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political Science Review 83:399419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lodge, Milton, Steenbergen, Marco R., and Brau, Shawn. 1995. “The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political Science Review 89:309326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. “Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 83:11251142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers: The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86:597611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 2001. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Matthews, Donald R. 1960. U.S. Senators and Their World. New York: Vintage Books.Google Scholar
Mayhew, David R. 1974. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Merrill Shanks, J.. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., and Stanley, Harold W.. 2000. Vital Statistics on American Politics. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Patterson, Kelly D., and Magleby, David B.. 1992. “The Polls—Poll Trends: Public Support for Congress.” Public Opinion Quarterly 56:539551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sinclair, Barbara. 1986. “Senate Styles and Senate Decision Making.” Journal of Politics. 48:877908.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James A. 1991. Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Westlye, Mark C. 1983. “Competitiveness of Senate Seats and Voting Behavior in Senate Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 27:253283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar