Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-30T22:54:42.708Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Cross-State Bias in Voting and Registration Overreporting in the Current Population Surveys

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Robert A. Bernstein ,
Anita Chadha  and
Robert Montjoy
Robert A. Bernstein
Affiliation:
Auburn University
Anita Chadha
Affiliation:
University of Houston, Downtown
Robert Montjoy
Affiliation:
Auburn University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

There is tremendous nonrandom variation from state to state in the rates at which people overreport voting in the Current Population Surveys (CPS). What accounts for this state-level bias in overreporting? We find that the determinants of statewide rates of overreporting parallel those in our earlier findings on individual-level overreporting: overreporting is a function of higher concentrations of racial and ethnic minorities, higher rates of religious membership, and being in the Deep South. These relationships are remarkably stable over time (1980-2000), and they are unaltered by improvements in how we measure overreporting. We suggest a method for deflating reported statewide registration figures to account for this bias, assuming that these registration figures are inflated in the same way as are statewide voting figures. We replicate and extend a part of Brown, Jackson, and Wright's (1999) analysis using these deflated figures, showing that our approach can improve explanation.

Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 3 , Issue 4 , Winter 2003 , pp. 367 - 386
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 by the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, Paul, and Claggett, William. 1991. “Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported and Validated Turnout in the 1998 Presidential Election.” Journal of Politics 53:186–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barone, Michael, and Ujifusa, Grant. 1980-2002. Almanac of American Politics. Washington, DC: National Journal Group.Google Scholar
Bass, Jack, and DeVries, Walter. 1976. The Transformation of Southern Politics. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Bernstein, Robert, Chadha, Anita, and Montjoy, Robert. 2001. “Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters.” Public Opinion Quarterly 65:22–44.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Black, Earl. 1976. Southern Governors and Civil Rights. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, Earl, and Black, Merle. 1987. Politics and Society in the South. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Bradley, Martin, Norman Green, Jr., Jones, Dale, Lynn, Mac, and McNeil, Lou, eds. 1992. Churches and Church Membership in the United States 1990. Atlanta, GA: Glenmary Research Center.Google Scholar
Brodsky, David, and Cotter, Patrick. 1998. “Political Issues and Political Parties.” In Party Activists in Southern Politics: Mirrors and Makers of Change, Hadley, Charles and Bowman, Lewis, eds. Knoxville, TN: The University of Tennessee Press.Google Scholar
Brown, Robert, Jackson, Robert, and Wright, Gerald. 1999. “Registration, Turnout, and State Party System.” Political Research Quarterly 52:463–479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bullock, Charles III, and Rozell, Mark, eds. 1998. The New Politics of the Old South: An Introduction to Southern Politics. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Calhoun-Brown, Allison. 1996. “African-American Churches and Political Mobilization: The Psychological Impact of Organizational Resources.” Journal of Politics 58:935–953.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carton, Paul. 1984. Mobilizing the Black Community: The Effects of Personal Contact Campaigning on Black Voters. Washington, DC: Joint Center for Political Studies.Google Scholar
Cassel, Carol, and Sigelman, Lee. 2001. “Misreporters in Candidate Choice Models.” Political Research Quarterly 54:643–656.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clausen, Aage. 1968. “Response Validity: Vote Report.” Public Opinion Quarterly 32:588–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cosman, Bernard. 1966. Five States for Goldwater: Continuity and Change in Southern Presidential Voting Patterns. Tuscaloosa, AL: University of Alabama Press.Google Scholar
Feigert, Frank, and Todd, John. 1998. “Migration and Party Change.” In Party Activists in Southern Politics: Mirrors and Makers of Change, Hadley, Charles and Bowman, Lewis, eds. Knoxville, TN: The University of Tennessee Press.Google Scholar
Fossett, Mark, and Jill Kiecolt, K.. 1989. “Relative Size of Minority Populations and White Racial Attitudes.” Social Science Quarterly 70:820–835.Google Scholar
Franklin, Daniel, and Grier, Eric. 1997. “Effects of Motor Voter Legislation: Voter Turnout, Registration, and Partisan Advantage in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Politics Quarterly 25:104–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giles, Michael, and Evans, Arthur. 1985. “External Threat, Perceived Threat and Group Identity.” Social Science Quarterly 66:50–66.Google Scholar
Giles, Michael, and Buckner, Melanie. 1993. “David Duke and Black Threat: An Old Hypothesis Revisited.” Journal of Politics 55:702–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glenmary Research Center. 2002. “Religious Congregations and Membership: 2000.” A data file available at http://ext.nazarene.org/rcms/statenumbers.html.Google Scholar
Hadley, Charles, and Bowman, Lewis, eds. 1998. Party Activists in Southern Politics: Mirrors and Makers of Change. Knoxville, TN: The University of Tennessee Press.Google Scholar
Himelstein, J. 1983. “Rhetorical Continuities in the Politics of Race: The Closed Society Revisited.” Southern Speech Communication Journal 48:153–166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hritzuk, Natasha, and Park, David. 2000. “The Question of Latino Participation: From an SES to a Social Structural Explanation.” Social Science Quarterly 81:151–166.Google Scholar
Katosh, John, and Traugott, Michael. 1981. “The Consequences of Validated and Self-Reported Voting Measures.” Public Opinion Quarterly 45:519–535.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. 1949. Southern Politics. New York: Vintage Books.Google Scholar
Kinder, Donald, and Sanders, Lynn. 1996. Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Lamis, Alexander. 1984. The Two-Party South. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Leighley, Jan, and Vedlitz, Arnold. 1999. “Race, Ethnicity, and Participation: Competing Models and Contrasting Explanations.” Journal of Politics 61:1092–1114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liu, Baodong. 2001. “The Positive Effect of Black Density on White Crossover Voting: Reconsidering Social Interaction Theory.” Social Science Quarterly 82:602–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macaluso, Theodore, and Wanat, John. 1979. “Voting Turnout and Religiosity.” Polity 12:158–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matthews, Donald, and Prothro, James. 1966. Negroes and the New Southern Politics. New York: Harcourt, Brace and World.Google Scholar
McDonald, Michael. 2002a. “The Turnout Rate among Eligible Voters in the States, 1980-2000.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 2:199–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Michael. 2002b. “U.S. State Turnout Rates for Eligible Voters, 1980-2000.” Study #1248: a computer file available from the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Science at the University of Michigan (www.icpsr.umich.org).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Michael, and Popkin, Samuel. 2001. “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter.” American Political Science Review 95: 409–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Menendez, Albert. 1996. Evangelicals at the Ballot Box. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.Google Scholar
Miller, Mungo. 1952. “The Waukegan Study of Voter Turnout Prediction.” Public Opinion Quarterly 32:588–606.Google Scholar
Moreland, Laurence, and Steed, Robert, eds. 1996. The 1996 Presidential Election in the South: Southern Party Systems in the 1990s. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Parry, Hugh and Crossley, Helen. 1950. “Validity of Responses to Survey Questions.” Public Opinion Quarterly 14:61–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, Bernard, Anderson, Herman, Bradley, Martin, Goetting, Paul, and Shriver, Peggy, eds. 1982. Churches and Church Membership in the United States 1980. Atlanta, GA: Glenmary Research Center.Google Scholar
Scher, Richard. 1997. Politics in the New South: Republicanism, Race and Leadership in the Twentieth Century. 2nd ed. New York: M.E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Silver, Brian, Anderson, Barbara, and Abramson, Paul. 1986. “Who Overreports Voting?” American Political Science Review 80:613–624.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanley, Harold. 1987. Voter Mobilization and the Politics of Race: The South and Universal Suffrage, 1952-1984. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Stanley, Harold, and Niemi, Richard. 1980-2002. Vital Statistics on American Politics. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Swansbrough, Robert, and Brodsky, David, eds. 1988. The South's New Politics: Realignment and Dealignment. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Traugott, Michael and Katosh, John. 1979. “Response Validity in Surveys of Voting Behavior.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43:359–377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United States Census Bureau. 1980-2002. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Wald, Kenneth. 1997. Religion and Politics in the United States. 3rd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
World Almanac and Book of Facts. 1980-2002. New York: World Almanac Books.Google Scholar
Wright, Gerald. 1977. “Contextual Models of Electoral Behavior: The Southern Wallace Vote.” American Political Science Review 77:497–508.CrossRefGoogle Scholar