Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T20:45:05.315Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The End of Midterm Decline?

Congressional Elections in Historical Perspective

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2016

Lex Renda
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Variations in the loss of seats in the House of Representatives by the president's party in midterm elections between 1854 and 1998 are analyzed from a historical perspective. Whereas in the latter three-fourths of the nineteenth century the president's party lost, on average, 22% of its share of House seats, in the twentieth century the average loss was 13%. Using district-level data, the author attributes the problematization of “midterm decline” to the growing power of incumbency (a consequence of the development of the Australian ballot), the decline in the number of partisanly competitive districts in open-seat elections, and the limitation, since 1912, of the size of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Type
Articles
Information
Social Science History , Volume 27 , Issue 2 , Summer 2003 , pp. 139 - 164
Copyright
Copyright © Social Science History Association 2003 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, A. I., Cover, A., and Norpoth, H. (1986) “The president's party in midterm elections: Going from bad to worse.” Journal of Political Science 30: 562–76.Google Scholar
Aldrich, J. H., and Nelson, F. D. (1984) Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. (1989) “Partisan cycles in congressional elections and the macroeconomy.” American Political Science Review 83: 373–97.Google Scholar
Alvord, J., and Brady, D. W. (1993) “Personal and partisan advantage in U.S. congressional elections, 1846–1990,” in Dodd, L. C. and Oppenheimer, B. I. (eds.) Congress Reconsidered. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly: 141–57.Google Scholar
Anderson, M. (2000) “Growth in U.S. population calls for larger House of Representatives.” Population Today 28: 1–4.Google Scholar
Barone, M., Ujifusa, G., and Cohen, Richard E. (1999) Almanac of American Politics, 2000. Washington: DC: National Journal Group.Google Scholar
Bloom, H. S., and Price, H. D. (1975) “Voter response to short-run economic conditions: The asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession.” American Political Science Review 69: 1240–54.Google Scholar
Born, R. (1990) “Surge and decline, negative voting, and the midterm loss phenomenon: A simultaneous choice analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 34: 615–45.Google Scholar
Calvert, R. L., and Isaac, R. M. (1981) “The inherent disadvantage of the presidential party in midterm congressional elections.” Public Choice 36: 141–46.Google Scholar
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E., eds. (1966) Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. (1991) “The presidential surge and its midterm decline in congressional elections, 1868–1988.” Journal of Politics 53: 478–87.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. (1997) The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Coleman, J. J. (1997) “The importance of being Republican: Forecasting party fortunes in house midterm elections.” Journal of Politics 59: 497–519.Google Scholar
Congressional Quarterly, Inc. (1994) Guide to U.S. Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.Google Scholar
Cover, A. D. (1986) “Presidential evaluations and voting for Congress.” American Journal of Political Science 30: 786–801.Google Scholar
Erikson, R. S. (1971) “The advantage of incumbency in congressional elections.” Polity 3: 395–405.Google Scholar
Erikson, R. S. (1988) “The puzzle of midterm loss.” Journal of Politics 50: 1011–29.Google Scholar
Erikson, R. S. (1990) “Economic conditions and the congressional vote: A review of the microlevel evidence.” American Journal of Political Science 34: 373–99.Google Scholar
Gienapp, W. E. (1982) “‘Politics seems to enter into everything’: Political culture in the North, 1840–1860,” in Maizlish, S. E. and Kushma, J. J. (eds.) Essays on American Antebellum Politics, 1840–1860. College Station: Texas A&M University Press: 15–69.Google Scholar
Hibbing, J. R., and Alvord, J. R. (1981) “The electoral impact of economic conditions: Who is held responsible?” American Journal of Political Science 25: 423–39.Google Scholar
Holt, M. F. (1992) Political Parties and American Political Development from the Age of Jackson to the Age of Lincoln. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.Google Scholar
Jacobson, G. (1990) “Does the economy matter in midterm elections?” American Journal of Political Science 34: 400–407.Google Scholar
Katz, J. N., and Sala, B. R. (1996) “Careerism, committee assignments, and the electoral connection.” American Political Science Review 90: 21–33.Google Scholar
Kernell, S. (1977) “Presidential popularity and negative voting: An alternative explanation of the midterm congressional decline of the president's party.” American Political Science Review 71: 44–66.Google Scholar
Kramer, G. H. (1971) “Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896–1964.” American Political Science Review 65: 131–43.Google Scholar
Martis, K. (1982) Historical Atlas of United States Congressional Districts, 1789–1983. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Martis, K. (1989) Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress, 1789–1989. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Mayhew, D. R. (1974) “Congressional elections: The case of the vanishing marginals.” Polity 6: 295–317.Google Scholar
McCormick, R. L. (1986) The Party Period and Public Policy: American Politics from the Age of Jackson to the Progressive Era. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
McGerr, M. E. (1986) The Decline of Popular Politics: The American North, 1865–1928. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
New York Tribune (1855–1914) The Tribune Almanac. New York: Tribune Publishing Co. Google Scholar
Polsby, N. W. (1968) “The institutionalization of the U.S. House of Representatives.” American Political Science Review 62: 144–68.Google Scholar
Primedia, Inc. (1994–99) The World Almanac and the Book of Facts. Mahwah, NJ: Primedia.Google Scholar
Radcliff, B. (1988) “Solving a puzzle: Aggregate analysis and economic voting revisited.” Journal of Politics 50: 440–55.Google Scholar
Reynolds, J. F. (1988) Testing Democracy: Electoral Behavior and Progressive Reform in New Jersey, 1880–1920. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Scammon, R. N., McGillivray, A. V., and Cook, R. (1984–98). America Votes [16–23]: A Handbook of Contemporary American Election Statistics. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.Google Scholar
Silbey, J. H. (1991) The American Political Nation, 1838–1893. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Tufte, E. R. (1975) “Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections.” American Political Science Review 69: 812–26.Google Scholar
United States Bureau of the Census (1976) Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
United States Bureau of the Census (1995) Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (2001) The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929–2001. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Available on-line at www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb.Google Scholar