Decision analysis for transportation risk management

Abstract

Modern transportation systems are complex and therefore require effective risk management decision tools. These help to help rank alternatives, allocate resources, and certify critical transportation operations. Existing methods may not accommodate the dynamics of changing environments and personnel threats. They may not handle hard-to-quantify, disparate data, and they may be unable to realistically estimate uncertainty. In this paper we discuss a coordinated set of ongoing model-development efforts to overcome such difficulties.