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TWO GREAT BANKING CRISES AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPACT COMPARED: SPAIN 1976/1977 AND 2008*
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 29 June 2017
Abstract
The 1976/1977 crisis was the most severe in Spanish history, but the losses associated with the 2008 crisis are huge. This paper compares these two great banking crises and identifies the main parallels and differences between them. Is the current crisis as severe as that of 1976? What is the impact on the banking and financial sectors? We show that the 1976 crisis is being surpassed by the 2008 crisis in terms of the decline in GDP, industrial production and unemployment, and that these two events have had at least a similar impact in terms of output gap and output loss. Finally, the financial impact measured by different financial indicators confirms the greater severity of the 2008 crisis.
Resumen
La crisis de 1976/77 fue la más severa de la historia en España, pero las pérdidas asociadas a la crisis de 2008 han sido también enormes. Este trabajo compara las dos grandes crisis bancarias e identifica los principales paralelismos y diferencias entre ambas. ¿Es la crisis actual tan severa como la de 1976? ¿Cuál ha sido su impacto en la banca y en el sector financiero? El trabajo muestra que la crisis de 1976 se ha visto sobrepasada por la de 2008 en términos de caída en el PIB, producción industrial y empleo, y que estos dos acontecimientos han tenido al menos un impacto similar en términos de output loss y output gap. Finalmente, el impacto financiero medido a través de diferentes indicadores confirma la mayor severidad de la crisis de 2008.
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- Articles/Artículos
- Information
- Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 35 , Issue 2 , September 2017 , pp. 241 - 274
- Copyright
- © Instituto Figuerola Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 2017
Footnotes
This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MINECO) ECO2009-08791 and MINECO/FEDER ECO2015-66782-P. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the European Association for Banking History Conference (Frankfurt, January 2014), XI Congreso Internacional de la AEHE (Madrid, September 2014) and the European Historical Society Conference (Pisa, September 2015). The authors would like to thank all the participants and discussants for their comments. The authors are also particularly indebted to the referees of this Journal for their helpful comments and suggestions.
Department of Economic Analysis, Universidad de Valencia, Avd. Tarongers sn, Edificio Departamental Oriental, 46022 Valencia, Spain. [email protected], [email protected]
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