Arnold Toynbee (1889–1975): Prophecy andCivilization

Abstract

Toynbee's theory of international relations was embedded in a species of grand narrative which plotted the rise and fall of all known civilizations. Both the end of nationalism and the rise of the universal state, central elements of his theory, were presented as aspects of a universal historical process evident in all previous social orders. The coming fate of Western civilization was but the most recent example of recurrence. It was also didactic: he saw his great Study of History as laying the foundations for the creation of a viable world order. Beginning with a cyclical view of history which emphasized decline, and in which the universal state was an aspect of decline, he eventually concluded that Western Civilization might evade the law of recurrence. Toynbee claimed to have detected laws of history; he also claimed to have understood what was unique about Western Civilization such that it might break the historical chain. It was not as optimistic, but it belongs generally to the tradition of liberal progressivism of which Fukuyama's recent excursion is the latest expression.