Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-vdxz6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T14:02:35.310Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The legitimacy of foreign intervention in elections: the Ukrainian response

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 March 2012

Abstract

The empirical and theoretical study of the effect of foreign intervention in the electoral processes of states is exceedingly weak. Using insights from the nationalism literature, this article provides a theoretical argument on domestic reactions to foreign interference in a state's internal politics. It then tests the predictions generated by the argument using mass survey data in Ukraine. The article analyses the Ukrainian people's reaction to Western and Russian intervention in the 2004 presidential elections – the Orange Revolution. We find that efforts by Western governments, international organisations, and non-governmental organisations to shape Ukraine's electoral landscape appear to be unwelcome to average Ukrainians while electoral interference by a non-democratic state, Russia, is seen as less alienating. Our theoretical framework accounts for these potentially surprising results.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © British International Studies Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 This article uses the terms ‘foreign intervention’ and ‘foreign interference’ interchangeably. No normative content is implied in either term.

2 Vachudova, Milada, Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration After Communism (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Orenstein, Mitchell A., Bloom, Stephen, and Lindstrom, Nicole (eds), Transnational Actors in Central and East European Transitions (Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh University Press, 2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 Bunce, Valerie and Wolchik, Sharon, ‘Favorable Conditions and Electoral Revolutions’, Journal of Democracy, 17 (2006), pp. 518CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

4 Carothers, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (Washington: DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999)Google Scholar; Rose, Gideon, ‘Democracy Promotion and American Foreign Policy: A Review Essay’, International Security, 25 (2000/2001), pp. 186203CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Mendelson, Sarah, ‘Democracy Assistance and Political Transition in Russia’, International Security, 32 (2001), pp. 4583Google Scholar; Fish, M. Steven, ‘Encountering Culture’, in Barany, Zoltan and Moser, Robert (eds), Is Democracy Exportable? (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 5784CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Breilly, John, Nationalism and the State (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992)Google Scholar. See also a discussion in Brubaker, Rogers, Nationalism Reframed: Nationhood and the national question in the New Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 1322CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

6 Smith, Anthony, National Identity (London: Penguin, 1991)Google Scholar.

7 Calhoun, Craig, ‘Nationalism and Ethnicity’, Annual Review of Sociology, 19 (1993), pp. 211–39CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

8 Greenfeld, Liah, Nationalism: Five Roads to Modernity (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992)Google Scholar.

9 Hale, Henry, The Foundations of Ethnic Politics: Separatism of States and Nations in Eurasia and the World (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 5592CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

10 Fish, ‘Encountering Culture’, pp. 73–8.

11 Searle-White, Joshua, The Psychology of Nationalism (New York: Palgrave, 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Petersen, Roger, Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth Century Eastern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

12 Horowitz, Donald, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985)Google Scholar.

13 Fish, ‘Encountering Culture’, p. 72.

14 Wohlforth, William, ‘Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War’, World Politics, 61 (2009), pp. 2857CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

15 Pevehouse, Jon, ‘Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization’, International Organization, 56 (2002), pp. 515–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

16 Orenstein, Mitchell A., Bloom, Stephen, and Lindstrom, Nicole, ‘A Fourth Dimension of Transition’, in Orenstein, Mitchell A., Bloom, Stephen, and Lindstrom, Nicole (eds), Transnational Actors in Central and East European Transitions (Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh University Press, 2008), pp. 118Google Scholar.

17 Quoted in Sushko, Oleksandr and Prystayko, Olena, ‘Western Influence’, in Åslund, Anders and McFaul, Michael (eds), Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006), pp. 126–7Google Scholar.

18 Schmitz, Hans Peter, ‘Domestic and International Perspectives on Democratization’, International Studies Review, 6 (2004), pp. 403–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

19 Barth, Fredrik, Ethnic Groups and Boundaries (Boston: Little Brown, 1969)Google Scholar; Smith, Anthony, The Ethnic Origins of States (Oxford: Blackwell, 1986)Google Scholar.

20 Shulman, Stephen, ‘Nationalist Sources of International Economic Integration’, International Studies Quarterly, 44/3 (2000), pp. 365–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Shulman, Stephen, ‘The Internal-External Nexus in the Formation of Ukrainian National Identity: The Case for Slavic Integration’, in Kuzio, Taras and D'Anieri, Paul (eds), Dilemmas of State-led Nation-building in Ukraine (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002), pp. 103–29Google Scholar.

21 Huntington, Samuel, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996), pp. 135–9Google Scholar. One can, of course, question how deep or ‘civilizational’ are the domestic divisions in such ‘cleft’ states.

22 Karatnycky, Adrian, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, Foreign Affairs, 84 (2005), pp. 35–2CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kempe, Iris and Solonenko, Iryna, ‘International Orientation and Foreign Support’, in Kurth, Helmut and Kempe, Iris (eds), Presidential Election and Orange Revolution: Implications for Ukraine's Transition (Kyiv: Friedrich-Ebert Shiftung, 2005), pp. 109–48Google Scholar; Wilson, Andrew, Ukraine's Orange Revolution (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005)Google Scholar; McFaul, Michael, ‘Transitions From Postcommunism’, Journal of Democracy, 16 (2005), pp. 519CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Pogrebinskii, Mikhail, Oranzhevaia Revolutsiia (Kyiv: Optima)Google Scholar; Susko, and Prystayko, , ‘Western Influence’; Nikolai Petrov and Andrei Ryabov, ‘Russia's Role in the Orange Revolution’, in Åslund, Anders and McFaul, Michael (eds), Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006), pp. 145–64Google Scholar; McFall, Michael, ‘Ukraine Imports Democracy: External Influences on the Orange Revolution’, International Security, 32 (2007), pp. 4583CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

23 Kempe and Solonenko, ‘International Orientation’, pp. 114–15.

24 Ibid., pp. 118–21.

25 Sushko and Prystayko, ‘Western Influence’, p. 129.

26 Kempe and Solonenko, ‘International Orientation’, pp. 115–16.

27 Ibid., pp. 118–21; McFaul, ‘Ukraine’, pp. 72–5.

28 McFaul, ‘Ukraine’, pp. 72–9.

29 Kuzio, Taras, ‘Pora! Takes Two Different Paths’, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2/23 (1 February 2005)Google Scholar.

30 Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, pp. 105–21; Kempe and Solonenko, ‘International Orientation’, pp. 124–6; Petrov and Ryabov, ‘Russia's Role’, pp. 153–8.

31 Ol'ha Dmytrycheva, ‘U Yanukovycha zris reityng’, Zerkalo Tyzhnia (Kyiv) (13–19 September 2004); Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, pp. 118–21.

32 Petrov and Ryabov, ‘Russia's Role’, p. 155.

33 Quoted in Sushko and Prystayko, ‘Western Influence’, p. 132.

34 McFaul, ‘Ukraine’, p. 73.

35 Ibid., pp. 72–5.

36 Volodymyr Lytvyn, ‘Hromadians'ke suspil'stvo; mify i real'nist’’, Zerkalo Tyzhnia (Kyiv) (26 January–1 February 2002).

37 Ledeneva, Alena, How Russia Really Works: The Informal Practices That Shaped Post-Soviet Politics and Business, (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press), pp. 2857Google Scholar.

38 Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, pp. 158–9. RosUkrEnergo was created in July 2004. From 2002 to 2004, another intermediary, Eural-Trans-Gas, played a similar role.

39 Petrov and Ryabov, ‘Russia's Role’, p. 150.

40 Kempe and Solonenko, ‘International Orientation’, pp. 115–16.

41 Taras Kuzio, ‘International community denounces mass election fraud in Ukraine’, Eurasia Daily Monitor (24 November 2004).

42 Shulman, Stephen, ‘Sources of Civic and Ethnic Nationalism in Ukraine’, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 18/4 (2002), pp. 130CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

43 Shulman, Stephen, ‘The Contours of Civic and Ethnic National Identification in Ukraine’, Europe-Asia Studies, 56/1 (2004), pp. 5987CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wilson, Andrew, Ukrainian Nationalism in the 1990s: a minority faith (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997)Google Scholar. The national identity debate in Ukraine revolves around several issues, including foreign policy orientation; language policy; perception of the degree of similarity and difference among Ukrainian, Russian, and European cultures; and whether dual Ukrainian-Russian identities and loyalties coexist easily or with difficulty. For most of these elements, popular opinion lends greater support to the Eastern Slavic position than the Ethnic Ukrainian position. Shulman, ‘The Contours of Civic and Ethnic National Identification in Ukraine’. For example, in a nationally-representative poll of 2,000 respondents conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation between 17–31 March 2008, 25 per cent of respondents identified as European while 70 per cent of respondents did not. Only in western Ukraine did a majority of respondents identify as European. In the same poll, 59 per cent of respondents said they would vote against NATO accession if the question were placed on a referendum. Only 22 per cent of respondents said they would vote for NATO accession, while 19 per cent remained uncertain about their preference. See {www.dif.ua}.

44 The survey questions analysed in this section were written by the article's lead author.

45 Shulman, Stephen, ‘National Identity and Public Support for Political and Economic Reform in Ukraine’, Slavic Review, 64/1 (2005), pp. 3556CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Stephen Shulman, ‘How European Is Ukraine? Inter-State and Intra-State Cultural Comparisions and Their Implications for Ukrainian Domestic and Foreign Policy’, paper presented at conference Ethnicity and Power: National and Regional Dimension of the New Security Architecture in Europe, Yalta, Ukraine (17–22 May 2010).

46 Regardless of the true nature of Western intentions, the common perception in Ukraine certainly seems to be that the West preferred Yushchenko, while Russia preferred Yanukovych.

47 Riabchuk, Mykola, Dvi Ukrainy: real'ni mezhi, virtual'ni viiny (Kyiv: Krytyka, 2003)Google Scholar.