Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T00:42:11.405Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

La persistance de l'inflation dans les modèles néo-keynésiens

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Safouane Mohamed Ben Aïssa  and
Olivier Musy
Safouane Mohamed Ben Aïssa
Affiliation:
GREQAM & CEDERS, Université de la Méditerranée & Université Paris X - Nanterre
Olivier Musy
Affiliation:
CEDERS, Université de la Méditerranée & Université de Rennes 1
Get access

Résumé

Nous dérivons les dynamiques de l'inflation issues des différentes hypothèses d'ajustement des prix rencontrées dans la littérature néo-keynésienne. Pour chaque modèle nous calculons la réponse de l'inflation et du produit suite à un choc sur le taux de croissance de la masse monétaire. Nous constatons que seules deux modélisations reproduisent correctement certains faits stylisés importants concernant l'impact de ce type de choc monétaire : la première est la spécification avec prix prédéterminés de Mankiw et Reis (2002) et la seconde celle à prix fixes de Galí et Gertler (1999). Aucune des autres alternatives examinées, y compris le modèle à prix fixes de Fuhrer et Moore (1995), ne génère de réponse satisfaisante. Elles sont notamment toutes incapables de reproduire une persistance suffisante de l'inflation. Ceci montre que dans les modèles à prix fixes, la structure de rigidité choisie im-porte autant pour le degré de persistance de l'inflation que la présence ou non de valeurs retardées de l'inflation dans la dynamique.

Summary

Summary

We derive the inflation dynamics implied by the different hypothesis on price adjustment existing in the New Keynesian litterature. We study the response of output and inflation in each model consecutively to a shock on the growth rate of money. We show that only two specifications can reproduce correctly the stylized facts associated with this kind of shock: the model with predetermined prices of Mankiw and Reis (2002), and the model with fixed prices of Gali and Gertler (1999). None of the other alternatives, including the fixed prices model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995), is able to reproduce correctly the delayed response of inflation. Then, when analyzing the inflation persistence implied by fixed prices models, the hypothesis on the structure of price rigidity is as important as the presence of inflation lags in the dynamics.

Keywords

persistance de l'inflationcourbes de Phillips néo-keynésiennesprix fixesprix prédéterminésE31E52inflation persistenceNew Keynesian Phillips Curvesfixed pricespre-determined pricesE31E52
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue 2 , January 2005 , pp. 175 - 191
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2005 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Adresse de correspondance: GREQAM, 2, Rue de la Charité, 13236 Marseille Cedex 02, FRANCE Tél.: +33 (0)4 91 14 07 23; fax: +33 (0)4 91 90 02 27; E-mail: [email protected], [email protected].

Nous remercions G. Abraham-Frois, C. Deissenberg, C. Lespagnol, J.G. Sahuc, A. Venditti, un rapporteur anonyme ainsi que les participants au colloque T2M pour leurs commentaires. Nous restons, bien entendu, seuls responsables des erreurs pouvant subsister.

References

Bibliograghie

Ball, L. (1994a), “Credible Dinsiflation with Staggered Price Setting”, American Economic Review, 84, pp. 282–289.Google Scholar
Ball, L. (1994b), “What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio ?”, publié dans Monetary Policy, édité par Mankiw, G., University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Google Scholar
Ball, L., Mankiw, G. et Romer, D. (1988), “The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 1–65.Google Scholar
Ball, L., Mankiw, G. et Reis, R. (2003), “Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, à paraître.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B. et Gertler, M. (1995), “Inside the Black Box : The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9-4, pp. 27–48.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O. et Fischer, S. (1989), Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Calvo, G. (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximising Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 383–398.Google Scholar
Clarida, R., Galí, J. et Gertler, M. (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy : A New Keynesian Perspective”, Journal of Economic Literature, 37-4, pp. 1661–1707.Google Scholar
Fischer, S. (1977), “Long-term Contracts, Rational Expectations and the Optimal Money Supply Rule”, Journal of Political Economy, 85, pp. 191–205.Google Scholar
Fuhrer, J. et Moore, G. (1995), “Inflation persistence”, Quaterly Journal of Economics, 110-1, pp. 127–160.Google Scholar
Galí, J. et Gertler, M. (1999), “Inflation Dynamics : A Structural Econometric Analysis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, pp. 195–222.Google Scholar
Jondeau, E. et Le Bihan, H. (2001), “Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve Additional Evidence From European and US Data”, Notes d'Études et de Recherches N°86, Banque de France.Google Scholar
Mankiw, G. (2001), “The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment”, Economic Journal, 111, pp. C45-C61.Google Scholar
Mankiw, G. et Reis, R. (2002), “Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices : A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve”, Quaterly Journal of Economics, 117, pp. 1295–1328.Google Scholar
Pereau, J.C. (1998), «Négociation Salariale en Terme Réel et en Terme Nominal : Une Analyse des Propriétés Dynamiques d'un Modéle avec Contrats Échelonnés», Recherches Économiques de Louvain, 3, pp. 293–317.Google Scholar
Roberts, J. (1995), “New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November, pp. 975–984.Google Scholar
Roberts, J. (2001), “How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data ?”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Google Scholar
Romer, D. (1996), Advanced Macroeconomics, Mc Graw Hill, New York.Google Scholar
Romer, D. et Romer, C. (1989), “Does Monetary Policy Matter ? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, pp. 121–170.Google Scholar
Rotemberg, J. (1982), “Sticky Prices in the United States”, Journal of Political Economy, 90-6, pp. 1187–1211.Google Scholar
Rotemberg, J. et Woodford, M. (1997), “An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp. 297–346.Google Scholar
Sahuc, J. G. (2002), “A ‘Hybrid’ Monetary Policy Model : Evidence from the Euro Area”, Applied Economic Letters, Vol. 9, pp. 949–955.Google Scholar
Sargent, T. (1987), Macroeconomic Theory, Academic Press, New York.Google Scholar
Taylor, J. (1980), “Aggregate Dynamics an Staggered Contracts”, Journal of Political Economy, 88, pp. 1–22.Google Scholar
Taylor, J. (1999), “Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics”, in Taylor, J. et Woodford, M. (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
Walsh, (1998), Monetary Theory and Policy, MIT Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar