Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T07:48:24.526Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Importance of Rationing in International Trade: An Econometric Analysis for Germany

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Wolfgang Franz  and
Gustav Heidbrink
Wolfgang Franz
Affiliation:
Universität Konstanz
Gustav Heidbrink
Affiliation:
Universität Konstanz
Get access

Summary

Within the context of a macroeconometric rationing model the importance of rationing for international trade flows is investigated. The model describes rationing barriers on domestic and foreign markets which lead to spillover effects on domestic imports and exports. The novelties of this study are the more detailed analysis of the dynamics of international trade flows and the use of business survey data as proxies for rationing barriers. The model is estimated for Germany. As a result rationing does influence trade flows to a non-negligible extent. Moreover, business survey data are a useful indicator for rationing but they do not outperform other proxies such as the degree of capacity utilization.

Résumé

Résumé

Dans le contexte d'un modèle macroéconomètrique avec rationnement, on étudie l'importance du rationnement sur les flux commerciaux internationaux. Le modèle décrit les barrières de rationnement sur les marchés domestiques et étrangers. Les deux nouveautés de cette étude sont la plus grande finesse des analyses de la dynamique des flux commerciaux internationaux et l'utilisation de données d'enquêtes auprès des entreprises comme approximation des contraintes de rationnement. Le modèle est estimé pour l'Allemagne. Les résultats indiquent que le rationnement influence les flux commerciaux de façon non-négligeable. De plus, si les donnés d'enquêtes auprès des entreprises sont un indicateur fort utile du degré de rationnement, elle ne constituent pas une meilleures approximation de celui-ci que d'autres indicateurs tel que le degré d'utilisation des capacités.

Keywords

C32E32F31C32E32F31
Type
Part III: Disequilibrium and Business Cycle Analysis
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 58 , Issue 3-4: Output and Employment Fluctuations , 1992 , pp. 346 - 371
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1992 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

(*)

This work is part of a project within the special research unit on international economics at the University of Konstanz (Sonderforschungsbereich 178 “Internationalisierung der Wirtschaft”). We are very grateful to W. Smolny (University of Konstanz) and J. Wolters (Free University of Berlin) for valuable comments and support. The paper benefited considerably from helpful comments made by three anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.

References

REFERENCES

Baldwin, R., (1990), Hysteresis in trade, In Franz, W., ed., Hysteresis Effects in Economic Models, Heidelberg, Physica.Google Scholar
Drèze, J.H. and Bean, C., (1990), European unemployment: Multicountry econometric study, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 92/2:135–165.Google Scholar
Entorf, H., Franz, W., König, H., and Smolny, W., (1991), The development of German employment and unemployment: estimation and simulation of a disequilibrium macro model, In Drèze, J.H. and Bean, C., eds., Europe's Unemployment Problem. Cambridge, MIT-Press.Google Scholar
Franz, W., Heidbrink, G., and Scheremet, W., (1992), International trade in a disequilibrium model, In Vosgerau, H.J., ed., European Integration in the World Market, Springer, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Franz, W. and König, H., (1990), A disequilibrium approach to unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany, European Economic Review, 34:413–422.Google Scholar
König, H. and Entorf, H., (1990), Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit und unausgelastete Kapazitäten: Ergebnisse eines makroökonomischen Rationierungs-modells, Allgemeines Statistischcs Archiv, 74:117–136.Google Scholar
Kooiman, P., (1986), Some empirical models for markets in disequilibrium, PhD thesis.Google Scholar
Lambert, J.-P., (1988), Disequilibrium Macrocconomic Models – Theory and Estimation of Rationing Models using Business Survey Data, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mankiw, N.G., (1990), A quick refresher course in macroeconomics, Journal of Economic Literature, 28:1645–1660.Google Scholar
Marnet, V., (1988), Ein empirisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell unter Verwendung von Konjunkturtestdaten, In Kräger, H., ed., Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung. Heinz König zum 60. Geburtstag, p. 83-101. Frankfurt/M., Campus.Google Scholar
Seitz, H., (1988), Estimation of inflation forecasts from business survey data, Applied Economics, 20:427–438.Google Scholar
Sneessens, H.R. and Drèze, J.H., (1986), A discussion of Belgian unemployment, combining traditional concepts and disequilibrium econometrics, Economica, 53:S89-S119.Google Scholar
Smolny, W., (1991), Dynamic Factor Demand in a Rationing Context. Theory and Estimation of a Macrocconomic Disequilibrium Model for the Federal Republic of Germany. PhD thesis, University of Konstanz.Google Scholar
Smolny, W., (1992), Macroeconomic consequences of international labour migration. Simulation experience from an econometric disequilibrium model, In Vosgerau, H.J., ed., European Integration in the World Market. Springer, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Wolters, J., (1990), Zur ökonometrischen Modellierung kurz- und langfristiger Abhängigkeiten; dargestellt am Beispiel der Zinsstruktur, In Nakhaeizadeh, G. and Vollmer, K.-H., eds., Neuere Entwicklungen in der Angewandten Ökonometrie, Heidelberg, Physica.Google Scholar