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Forecasts with production expectations integrated into a macroeconomic model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Jakob B. Madsen
Jakob B. Madsen*
Affiliation:
University of Western Australia
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Summary

This paper suggests that forecasts of changes in production from production expectations can be improved by using the information contained in a reduced form macroeconomic model. The model is estimated using quarterly data for 14 OECD countries. The estimation results indicate that the forecasts of changes in production from survey production expectations can be improved by embedding the macroeconomic model into the forecast equations.

Résumé

Résumé

Ce papier suggère que les prévisions de changements de production à partir de la formation des attentes sur la production, peuvent être améliorées en utilisant l'information contenue dans un modèle macroéconomique à forme réduite. Le modèle est estimé en utilisant des données trimestrielles de 14 pays de l'OCDE. Les résultats de ces estimations indiquent que les prévisions de changements dans la formation des attentes de production provenant de sondages peuvent être améliorées en insérant dans les équations de prévision, le modèle macroéconomique.

Keywords

C52C53C52C53
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 63 , Issue 1 , 1997 , pp. 3 - 12
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1997 

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