Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T10:22:24.407Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

L’inflation pourrait-elle repartir en Europe? Expliquer les taux d’intérêt réels et les déficits

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Get access

Résumé

Utilisant un modèle théorique à deux périodes, nous essayons de comprendre pourquoi les pays européens ont choisi, dans la période récente, de mener des politiques monétaires restrictives. Nous analysons si l’augmentation de la dette publique qui en résulte ne les conduira pas à choisir, dans le futur, une inflation élevée en contradiction avec l’objectif d’inflation faible qui est affiché.

Summary

Summary

We use a two period theoretical model to try to understand why european contries have chosen in the recent period to implement expansionnary fiscal policies and tight monetary policies. We analyse the possibility that the implied increase in public debt will eventually lead to a surge in inflation, in contradiction with the low inflation objective wich is currently assumed.

Keywords

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1994 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Aizenman, J. et Guidotti, P. [1990], Capital Controls, Collection Costs and Domestic Public Debt, NBER Working Paper n° 3443, Septembre.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. [1989], Politics and Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies, Economic Policy, vol. 4, n° 4, pp. 5698.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. et Roubini, N. [1992], Political Cycles in OECD Economics, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 59, octobre, pp. 663688.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. et Tabellini, G. [1990], A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt in a Democracy, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 57, n° 9, pp. 403414.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. et Drazen, A. [1991], Why are Stabilisations delayed?, American Economic Review, vol. 81, n° 5, pp. 11701188.Google Scholar
Backus, D. et Driffill, J. [1985], Inflation and Reputation, American Economic Review, vol. 75, n° 3, pp. 530538.Google Scholar
Barro, R. [1986], Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy with Incomplete Information, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 17, n° 1, pp. 320.Google Scholar
Barro, R. et Gordon, D.[1983a], Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetaiy Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, n° 7, pp. 101112.Google Scholar
Barro, R. et Gordon, D. [1983b], A positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model, Journal of Political Economy, vol.91, n° 4, pp. 589610.Google Scholar
Buiter, W.H. [1993], Public Debt in the USA : how much, how bad and who pays, CEPR Discussion Paper n ° 91, Juin.Google Scholar
Dalamagas, B.A. [1993], Fiscal effectiveness and Debt Illusion in a Rational Expectations Model, Annales d’Economie et de Statistique,31, Juillet-Septembre, pp. 129146.Google Scholar
Driffill, J. [1988], Macroeconomic Policy Games with Incomplete Information : a Survey, European Economic Review, vol. 32, n° 2/3, pp. 533554.Google Scholar
Guidotti, P.E. [1993], Wage and Public Debt Indexation. IMF Staff Papers, vol.40, n° 2, pp.237265.Google Scholar
Mankiw, N.G. [1987], The Optimal Collection of Seignorage : Theory and Evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 20, n° 2, pp. 163175.Google Scholar
Persson, T. et Svensson, L.E.O. [1989], Why a Stubborn Conservative would run a Deficit : Policies with Time Inconsistent Preferences, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 104, n° 417, pp. 325346.Google Scholar
Rogoff, K. [1985], The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Target, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 100, n° 417, pp. 6989.Google Scholar
Sargent, T.J. et Wallace, N. [1981], Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic, Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota, Quarterly Review, n° 5.Google Scholar