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The Influence of Calibration Curve Construction and Composition on the Accuracy and Precision of Radiocarbon Wiggle-Matching of Tree Rings, Illustrated by Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Data Sets from AD 1500–1950

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 May 2019

Alan G Hogg Open the ORCID record for Alan G Hogg [Opens in a new window] ,
Timothy J Heaton ,
Christopher Bronk Ramsey ,
Gretel Boswijk ,
Jonathan G Palmer ,
Chris S M Turney ,
John Southon  and
Warren Gumbley
Alan G Hogg*
Affiliation:
Waikato Radiocarbon Laboratory, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand
Timothy J Heaton
Affiliation:
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom
Christopher Bronk Ramsey
Affiliation:
Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
Gretel Boswijk
Affiliation:
School of Environment, University of Auckland, New Zealand
Jonathan G Palmer
Affiliation:
Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Chris S M Turney
Affiliation:
Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
John Southon
Affiliation:
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
Warren Gumbley
Affiliation:
Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected].
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Abstract

This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval.

Keywords

carbon dating of tree ringsradiocarbon calibrationradiocarbon wiggle-matchingSHCal13Southern Hemisphere radiocarbon calibration
Type
Conference Paper
Information
Radiocarbon , Volume 61 , Issue 5: Radiocarbon 2018 Conference Proceedings Trondheim, Norway, June 17–22, 2018 Part 1 of 2 , October 2019 , pp. 1265 - 1291
Copyright
© 2019 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona 

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Footnotes

Selected Papers from the 23rd International Radiocarbon Conference, Trondheim, Norway, 17–22 June, 2018

References

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