Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T23:21:09.816Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Scott St. George ,
David M. Meko  and
Michael N. Evans
Scott St. George*
Affiliation:
GSC Northern Canada, Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
David M. Meko
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Michael N. Evans
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA. Fax: +1 520 621 8229. E-mail address:[email protected] (S. St. George).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.

Keywords

CanadaDendrochronologyNorthwestern OntarioVaganov–Shashkin modelWinnipeg River
Type
Original Articles
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 70 , Issue 2 , September 2008 , pp. 158 - 172
Copyright
University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anchukaitis, K.J., Evans, M.N., Kaplan, A., Vaganov, E.A., Hughes, M.K., Grissino, Mayer, H.D., Cane, M.A., (2006). Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought.. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L04705. doi:10.1029/2005GL025050.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beriault, A.L., Sauchyn, D.J., (2006). Tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow in the Churchill River basin, northern Saskatchewan.. Canadian Water Resources Journal 31, 249–262.Google Scholar
Biondi, F., Waikul, K., (2004). DENDROCLIM2002: a C++ program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies.. Computers and Geosciences 30, 303–311.Google Scholar
Bradley, R.S., (1999). Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary.. Academic Press, San Diego.Google Scholar
Briffa, K., Jones, P.D., (1990). Basic chronology statistics and assessment.. Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences Kluwer, Dordrecht., pp. 137–152.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., (1985). A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization. Ph.D. dissertation.. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., (1990). A conceptual linear aggregate model for tree rings.. Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences Kluwer, Dordrecht., pp. 98–104.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., Krusic, P.J., (2004). The North American Drought Atlas.. Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory and the National Science Foundation. Available online at http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/fac/trl/.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., Briffa, K., Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V., (1990a). Tree-ring standardization and growth-trend estimation.. Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences Kluwer, Dordrecht., pp. 104–123.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V., (1990b). Estimation of the mean chronology.. Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences Kluwer, Dordrecht., pp. 123–132.Google Scholar
Dredge, L.A., Cowan, W.R., (1989). Quaternary geology of the southwestern Canadian Shield.. Fulton, R.J. Quaternary Geology of Canada and Greenland Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa., pp. 214–235.Google Scholar
Evans, M.N., Reichert, B.K., Kaplan, A., Anchukaitis, K.J., Vaganov, E.A., Hughes, M.K., Cane, M.A., (2006). A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data.. Journal of Geophysical Research 111, G03008. doi:10.1029/2006JG000166.Google Scholar
Fritts, H.C., (1976). Tree Rings and Climate.. Academic Press, New York., pp. 567.Google Scholar
Girardin, M.P., Tardif, J., Flannigan, M.D., Bergeron, Y., (2004). Multicentury reconstruction of the Canadian Drought Code from eastern Canada and its relationship with paleoclimatic indicators of atmospheric circulation.. Climate Dynamics 23, 99–115.Google Scholar
Girardin, M.P., Tardif, J., Flannigan, M.D., Bergeron, Y., (2006a). Synoptic scale atmospheric circulation and boreal Canada summer drought variability of the past three centuries.. Journal of Climate 19, 1922–1947.Google Scholar
Girardin, M.P., Tardif, J., Flannigan, M.D., Bergeron, Y., (2006b). Forest fire-conducive drought variability in the southern Canadian boreal forest and associated climatology inferred from tree rings.. Canadian Water Resources Journal 31, 275-296.Google Scholar
Hughes, M.K., (2002). Dendrochronology in climatology — the state of the art.. Dendrochronologia 20, 95–116.Google Scholar
Jacoby, G., D'Arrigo, R., Luckman, B., (1996). Millennial and near-millennial scale dendroclimatic studies in northern North America.. Jones, P.D., Bradley, R.S., Jouzel, J. Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years I41, NATO ASI Series, 67–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laird, K.R., Cumming, B.F., (2008). Reconstruction of Holocene lake level from diatoms, chrysophytes and organic matter in a drainage lake from the Experimental Lakes Area (northwestern Ontario, Canada).. Quaternary Research 69, 292–305.Google Scholar
Luckman, B.H., Wilson, R.J.S., (2005). Summer temperature in the Canadian Rockies during the last millennium — a revised record.. Climate Dynamics 24, 131–144.Google Scholar
Mekis, E., Hogg, W.D., (1999). Rehabilitation and analysis of Canadian daily precipitation time series.. Atmosphere-Ocean 37, 53–85.Google Scholar
Mitchell, T.D., Jones, P.D., (2005). An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids.. International Journal of Climatology 25, 693–712.Google Scholar
North, G.R., Bell, T.L., Cahalan, R.F., Moeng, F.J., (1982). Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions.. Monthly Weather Review 110, 699–706.Google Scholar
Osborn, T.J., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., (1997). Adjusting variance for sample-size in treering chronologies and other regional mean time series.. Dendrochronologia 15, 89–99.Google Scholar
Overland, J.E., Preisendorfer, R.W., (1982). A significance test for principal components applied to a cyclone climatology.. Monthly Weather Review 110, 1–4.Google Scholar
Rannie, W.F., (2006). Evidence for unusually wet 19th century summers in the eastern prairies and northwestern Ontario.. Prairie Perspectives 9, 85-105.Google Scholar
St. George, S., (2007). Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada: trends, extremes and climate linkages.. Journal of Hydrology 332, 396–411.Google Scholar
Schweingruber, F.H., Kairiukstis, L., Shiyatov, S., (1990). Sample selection.. Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences Kluwer, Dordrecht., pp. 23–35.Google Scholar
Schweingruber, F.H., Briffa, K.R., Nogler, P., (1993). A tree-ring densitometric transect from Alaska to Labrador.. International Journal of Biometeorology 37, 151–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sims, R.A., Baldwin, K.A., Kershaw, H.M., Wang, Y., (1996). Tree species in relation to soil moisture regime in northwestern Ontario, Canada.. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 39, 471–484.Google Scholar
Stokes, M.A., Smiley, T.L., (1968). An Introduction to Tree-Ring Dating.. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Google Scholar
Suffling, R., (1992). Climate change and boreal forest fires in Fennoscandia and central Canada.. Catena Supplement 22, 111–132.Google Scholar
Suffling, R., Speller, D., (1998). The fire roller coaster in Canadian boreal forests.. MacIver, D.C., Meyer, R.A. Proceedings of the Workshop on Decoding Canada's Environmental Past: Climate Variations and Biodiversity Change during the Last Millenium. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada Downsview, 19-26.Google Scholar
Vaganov, E.A., Hughes, M.K., Shashkin, A.V., (2006). Growth dynamics of tree rings: an image of past and future environments.. Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar
Vincent, L.A., Gullett, D.W., (1999). Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses.. International Journal of Climatology 19, 1375–1388.3.0.CO;2-0>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., (1984). On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology.. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 201–213.Google Scholar
Wilks, D.S., (2005). Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (Second edition).. Elsevier, Amsterdam. 627 p.Google Scholar
Woodhouse, C.A., Gray, S.T., Meko, D.M., (2006). Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River basin.. Water Resources Research 42, W05415 doi:10.1029/2005WR004455.Google Scholar