Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T22:01:29.938Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

May–June precipitation reconstruction of southwestern anatolia, Turkey during the last 900 years from tree rings

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Ramzi Touchan*
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210058, Tucson, AZ 85721-0058, USA
Ünal Akkemik
Affiliation:
University of Istanbul, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Botany, 80895 Bahçeköy-Istanbul, Turkey
Malcolm K. Hughes
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210058, Tucson, AZ 85721-0058, USA
Nesat Erkan
Affiliation:
Southwest Anatolia Forest Research Institute (SAFRI), POB: 264, Antalya, Turkey
*
*Corresponding author. Fax: +1 520 621 8229.E-mail address:[email protected] (R. Touchan).

Abstract

A May–June precipitation reconstruction (AD 1097–2000) has been developed for southwestern Anatolia in Turkey, the longest reported to date in this region. The reconstruction was derived from a regional Juniperus excelsa chronology that was built from material sampled at four sites in the Antalya and Mersin Districts. The regional tree-ring chronology accounts for 51% of the variance of instrumentally observed May–June precipitation. The years AD 1518 to 1587 are the most humid period in the reconstruction, coinciding with a major shift in European climate. The driest 70-year period in the reconstruction is AD 1195 to 1264. The period AD 1591–1660 represents the third driest and was characterized by instability climatically, politically, and socially in Anatolia.

Type
Short Paper
Copyright
University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Akkemik, Ü. (2000). Dendroclimatology of umbrella pine (Pinus pinea L.) in Istanbul, Turkey. Tree-Ring Bulletin 56, 1723.Google Scholar
Akkemik, Ü., and Aras, A. (2005). Reconstruction (1689–1994 AD) of April–August precipitation in the southern part of central Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 25, 537548.Google Scholar
Akkemik, Ü., Dağdeviren, N., and Aras, A. (2005). A preliminary reconstruction (A.D. 1635–2000) of spring precipitation using oak tree rings in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. International Journal of Biometeorology 49, 297302.Google Scholar
Biondi, F., and Waikul, K. (2004). DENDROCLIM 2002: A C++ program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies. Computers Geosciences 30, 303311.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R,.(1985). A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization. PhD Dissertation. Dept Geosciences,. The University of Arizona, Tucson.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., and Briffa, K.R. (1990). A comparison of some tree-ring standardization methods.Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 153162.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., and Peters, K. (1997). Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change. The Holocene 7, 3 361370.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., Briffa, K.R., Meko, D.M., Graybill, D.S., and Funkhouser, G. (1995). The ‘segment length curse’ in long tree-ring chronology development for paleoclimatic studies. The Holocene 5, 2 229237.Google Scholar
D'Arrigo, R.D., and Cullen, H.M. (2001). A 350-Year (AD 1628–1980) reconstruction of Turkish precipitation. Dendrochronologia 19, 2 169177.Google Scholar
Fritts, H.C. (1976). Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, New York.567 pp.Google Scholar
Fritts, H.C., Blasing, T.J., Hayden, B.P., and Kutzbach, J.E. (1971). Multivariate techniques for specifying tree-growth and climate relationships and for reconstructing anomalies in paleoclimate. Journal of Applied Meteorology 10, 5 845864.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fritts, H.C., Guiot, J., Gordon, G.A., and Schweingruber, F. (1990). Methods of calibration, verification, and reconstruction.Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the environmental sciences Kluwer Academic Publishers, 163217.Google Scholar
Griswold, W.J..(1977). The little ice age: its effect on Ottoman history, 1585–1625 (Paper presented at the Middle East Studies Association Meeting New York..Google Scholar
Griswold, W.J. (1983). The great Anatolian rebellion 1000–1020/1591–1611. Klaus Schwartz Verlag, Berlin.Google Scholar
Griswold, W.J. (1989). Climatic change: a possible factor in social unrest of seventeenth century Anatolia. Studies in honor of Andreas tietze. Divit Press, Istanul.Google Scholar
Hughes, M.K., Kuniholm, P.I., Garfin, G.M., Latini, C., and Eischeid, J. (2001). Aegean tree-ring signature years explained. Tree-Ring Research 57, 1 6773.Google Scholar
Inalcik, H..(1997). A Note on the Population of Cyprus. Journal for Cypriot Studies 3..Google Scholar
Jones, P.D., and Hulme, M. (1996). Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: methods and illustrations. International Journal of Climatology 16, 361377.Google Scholar
Kadioglu, M..(2001). Bildigimiz Havalarin Sonu. Istanbul (in Turkish)..Google Scholar
Kohler, M.A. (1949). On the use of double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of meteoroloical records and for making required adjustments. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82, 9697.Google Scholar
Kuniholm, P.I. (1990). The archaeological record: evidence and non-evidence for climate change.Runcorn, S.K., Pecker, C.J. The Earth's Climate and Variability of the Sun Over Recent Millennia. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society of London, Series A, Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences vol. 330 (1615), 645655.Google Scholar
Meko, D.M. (1981). Applications of Box-Jenkins methods of time series analysis to the reconstruction of drought from tree rings. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, Tucson, AZ.149 pp.Google Scholar
Meko, D.M. (1997). Dendroclimatic reconstruction with time varying subsets of tree ring indices. Journal of Climate 10, 687696.Google Scholar
Meko, D.M., and Graybill, D.A. (1995). Tree-ring reconstruction of Upper Gila River Discharge. Water Resources Bulletin 31, 605616.Google Scholar
Öden, O., Gürbüz, M., Kahraman, D., Özsoy, Ü., Kayam, Y., Lomas, L., and Mandel, M. ("den 2002). )The impact of climate, agrotechnology, soil and socio-economic factors on wheat yields. Turkish-Israel Joint Research Project, Izmir-Turkey http://www.thaem.gov.tr/the%20impact.htm. Google Scholar
Ottoman Archive. The documents between Ottoman Place and districts.. In Istanbul Regional Directorate of State Archives..Google Scholar
Öztürk, A. ("ztürk, 1999). )The effect of drought on the growth and yield of winter wheat. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 23, 531540.Google Scholar
Panzac, D..(1985). La peste dans I’empire Ottoman 1700–1850.. Editions Peeters,, Louvain.Google Scholar
Pauling, A., Luterbacker, J., Casty, C., and Wanner, H. (2006). Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Climate Dynamics 26, 387405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pfister, C., Brázdil, R., and Glaser, R. (1999). An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change: Climatic variability in sixteenth-century Europe and its social dimension. Climatic Change vol. 43, 351 pp.Google Scholar
Potter, K.W. (1981). Illustration of a new test for detecting a shift in mean in precipitation series. Monthly Weather Review 109, 20402045.Google Scholar
Purgstall, B.J.V.H. (1983). Ottoman State History. Translator: Vecdi Bürün, Üçdal Publishing Istanbul (in Turkish) 17.Google Scholar
Quataert, D..(1968). Famine in Turkey–1873–1875. MA Thesis,. S.U.N.Y., Binghamton, NY..Google Scholar
Snee, R.D. (1977). Validation of regression models: methods and examples. Technometrics 19, 415428.Google Scholar
Stokes, M.A., and Smiley, T.L. (1996). An introduction to tree-ring dating. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson AZ.73 pp.Google Scholar
Swetnam, T.W. (1985). Using dendrochronology to measure radial growth of defoliated trees. USDA Forest Service, Cooperative State Research Service. Agriculture Handbook 639 139.Google Scholar
Touchan, R., Meko, D.M., and Hughes, M.K. (1999). A 396-year reconstruction of precipitation in Southern Jordan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35, 1 4555.Google Scholar
Touchan, R., Garfin, G.M., Meko, D.M., Funkhouser, G., Erkan, N., Hughes, M.K., and Wallin, B.S. (2003). Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width. International Journal of Climatology 23, 157171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Touchan, R., Funkhouser, G., Hughes, M.K., and Erkan, N. (2005a). )Standardized precipitation indices reconstructed from Turkish tree-ring widths. Climatic Change 72, 3 339353.Google Scholar
Touchan, R., Xoplaki, E., Funkhouser, G., Luterbacher, J., Hughes, M.K., Erkan, N., Akkemik, Ü., and Stephan, J. (2005b). )Dendroclimatology and large-scale circulation influences in the eastern Mediterranean and Near East region. Climate Dynamics 25, 7598.Google Scholar
Türkeş, M..("rkeş, 1996). Meteorological Drought in Turkey: A Historical Perspective, 1930–93.. The article appeared in the issue of Drought Network News. http://drought.unl.edu/pubs/dnn/arch34.pdf..Google Scholar
Türkeş, M. ("rkeş, 1998). )Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and Southern Oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 18, 649680.Google Scholar
Türkeş, M., Sümer, U.M., and Kılıç, G. ("rkeş 2002). )Persistence and periodicity in the precipitation series of Turkey and associations with 500 hPa geopotential heights. Climate Research 21, 5981.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1997). Turkish Ministry of Forestry,. Forest Management Plans for Mediterranean Region, Forest Service,, Antalya..Google Scholar
Vaganov, E.A., Hughes, M.K., and Shashkin, A.V. (2006). Growth Dynamics of Conifer Tree Rings: Images of Past and Future Environments. Springer, Berlin and Heidelberg.Google Scholar
Weisberg, R. (1985). Applied linear regression. John Wiley and Sons, New York.Google Scholar
Wigley, T., Briffa, K., and Jones, P. (1984). On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 201213.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zachariadou, E..(1999). Osmanli Imparatorlugunda Dogal Afetler, Istanbul (in Turkish)..Google Scholar