Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T00:24:47.619Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A computational approach to Quaternary lake-level reconstruction applied in the central Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Paul Pribyl  and
Bryan N. Shuman
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Sediment-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary lake levels provide direct evidence of hydrologic responses to climate change, but many studies only provide approximate lake-elevation curves. Here, we demonstrate a new method for producing quantitative time series of lake elevation based on the facies and elevations of multiple cores collected from a lake's margin. The approach determines the facies represented in each core using diagnostic data, such as sand content, and then compares the results across cores to determine the elevation of the littoral zone over time. By applying the approach computationally, decisions are made systematically and iteratively using different facies classification schemes to evaluate the associated uncertainty. After evaluating our assumptions using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we quantify past lake-elevation changes, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (ΔP−ET), and uncertainty in both at Lake of the Woods and Little Windy Hill Pond, Wyoming. The well-correlated (r = 0.802 ± 0.002) reconstructions indicate that water levels at both lakes fell at >11,300, 8000–5500, and 4700–1600 cal yr BP when ΔP − ET decreased to −50 to −250 mm/yr. Differences between the reconstructions are typically small (10 ± 24 mm/yr since 7000 cal yr BP), and the similarity indicates that our reconstruction method can produce statistically comparable paleohydrologic datasets across networks of sites.

Keywords

Lake levelsPaleohydrologyDroughtReconstructionRocky MountainsHolocene
Type
Articles
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 82 , Issue 1 , July 2014 , pp. 249 - 259
Copyright
University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aebly, F.A., and Fritz, S.C. Paleohydrology of Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during the last 8000 yr. The Holocene 19, (2009). 91–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, T.P., Pierce, D.W., Hidalgo, H.G., Bonfils, C., Santer, B.D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A.W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A.A., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States. Science 319, (2008). 1080–1083.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Benson, L., Kashgarian, M., Rye, R., Lund, S., Paillet, F., Smoot, J., Kester, C., Mensing, S., Meko, D., and Lindström, S. Holocene multidecadal and multicentennial droughts affecting Northern California and Nevada. Quaternary Science Reviews 21, (2002). 659–682.Google Scholar
Bloom, A.M. A Paleolimnological Investigation of Climatic and Hydrological Conditions during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. (2006). University of Utah, Google Scholar
Chadwick, O.A., Hall, R.D., and Phillips, F.M. Chronology of Pleistocene glacial advances in the central Rocky Mountains. Geological Society of America Bulletin 109, (1997). 1443–1452.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
COHMAP members Climate changes of the last 18,000 years: observations and model simulations. Science 241, (1988). 1043–1052.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Cane, M.A., and Stahle, D.W. North American drought: reconstructions, causes, and consequences. Earth-Science Reviews 81, (2007). 93–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Core Development Team, R. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. (2009). R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.Google Scholar
Dahms, D.E. Mineralogical evidence for eolian contribution to soils of late quaternary moraines, Wind River Mountains, Wyoming, USA. Geoderma 59, (1993). 175–196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahms, D.E. Glacial stratigraphy of Stough Creek Basin, Wind River Range, Wyoming. Geomorphology 42, (2002). 59–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahms, D.E., and Rawlins, C.L. A two-year record of eolian sedimentation in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research 28, (1996). 210–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, M.B., and Ford, M.S. Sediment focusing in Mirror Lake. New Hampshire Limnology Oceanography 27, (1982). 137–150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dearing, J.A. Sedimentary indicators of lake-level changes in the humid temperature zone: a critical review. Journal of Paleolimnology 18, (1997). 1–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diffenbaugh, N.S., Ashfaq, M., Shuman, B., Williams, J.W., and Bartlein, P.J. Summer aridity in the United States: response to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters 33, (2006). L22712 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Digerfeldt, G. Studies on Past Lake-Level Fluctuations. Berglund, B.E. Handbook of Holocene Palaeoecology and Palaeohydrology. (1986). John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, U. K. 127–142.Google Scholar
Fall, P.L., Davis, P.T., and Zielinski, G.A. Late quaternary vegetation and climate of the Wind River Range, Wyoming. Quaternary Research 43, (1995). 393–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gosse, J.C., Klein, J., Lawn, B., Middleton, R., and Evenson, E.B. Beryllium-10 dating of the duration and retreat of the last Pinedale glacial sequence. Science 268, (1995). 1329–1333.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hakanson, L. Lake bottom dynamics and morphometry: the dynamic ratio. Water Resources Research 18, (1982). 1444–1450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hakanson, L., and Jansson, M. Principles of Lake Sedimentology. (1983). Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrison, S.P., and Digerfeldt, G. European lakes as palaeohydrological and palaeoclimatic indicators. Quaternary Science Reviews 12, (1993). 233–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrison, S.P., Kutzbach, J.E., Liu, Z., Bartlein, P.J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Muhs, D., Prentice, I.C., and Thompson, R.S. Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality. Climate Dynamics 20, (2003). 663–688.Google Scholar
Henderson, A.K., and Shuman, B.N. Differing controls on river- and lake-water hydrogen and oxygen isotopic values in the western United States. Hydrological Processes 24, (2010). 3894–3906.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelly, R.L., Surovell, T.A., Shuman, B., and Smith, G.M. A continuous climatic impact on Holocene human population in the Rocky Mountains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 110, (2013). 443–447.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kohfeld, K.E., and Harrison, S.P. How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental data sets. Quaternary Science Reviews 19, (2000). 321–346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Love, J. D., and Christiansen, A. C. (1985). Geologic Map of Wyoming. US Geological Survey Unnumbered Series. scale 1:500,000, 3 sheets.Google Scholar
Marcott, S.A. Late Pleistocene and Holocene Glacier and Climate Change. (2011). Oregon State University, (PhD Dissertation) Google Scholar
Marsicek, J.P., Shuman, B., Brewer, S., Foster, D.R., and Oswald, W.W. Moisture and temperature changes associated with the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in the northeastern United States. Quaternary Science Reviews 80, (2013). 129–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, I.M., Guzkowska, M.A.J., Rapley, C.G., and Street-Perrott, F.A. The response of lake levels and areas to climatic change. Climatic Change 27, (1994). 161–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miao, X., Mason, J., Goblet, R.J., and Hanson, P.R. Loess record of dry climate and aeolian activity in the early to mid-Holocene, central Great Plains, North America. The Holocene 15, (2005). 339–346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miao, X., Mason, J.A., Swinehart, J.B., Loope, D.B., Hanson, P.R., Goble, R.J., and Liu, X. A 10,000 year record of dune activity, dust storms, and severe drought in the central Great Plains. Geology 35, (2007). 119–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Minckley, T., Shriver, R.K., and Shuman, B. Resilience and regime change in a southern Rocky Mountain ecosystem during the past 17000 years. Ecological Monographs 82, (2012). 49–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, K.A., and Kimball, J.P. A 19,000-year record of hydrologic and climatic change inferred from diatoms from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho. Geological Society of America Special Papers 450, (2009). 229–246.Google Scholar
Mote, P.W., Hamlet, A.F., Clark, M.P., and Lettenmaier, D.P. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86, (2005). 39–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, D.B., Abbott, M.B., Steinman, B., Polissar, P.J., Stansell, N.D., Ortiz, J.D., Rosenmeier, M.F., Finney, B.P., and Riedel, J. Drought variability in the Pacific Northwest from a 6,000-yr lake sediment record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 108, (2011). 3870–3875.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
NREL United States Wind Resources Map. (2009). Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Google Scholar
Phillips, F.M., Zreda, M.G., Gosse, J.C., Klein, J., Evenson, E.B., Hall, R.D., Chadwick, O.A., and Sharma, P. Cosmogenic 36Cl and 10Be ages of Quaternary glacial and fluvial deposits of the Wind River Range, Wyoming. Geological Society of America Bulletin 109, (1997). 1453–1463.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Plank, C., and Shuman, B. Drought-driven changes in lake areas and their effects on the surface energy balance of Minnesota's lake-dotted landscape. Journal of Climate 22, (2009). 4055–4065.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reimer, P., Baillie, M., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J., Blackwell, P., Bronk Ramsey, C., Buck, C., Burr, G., Edwards, R., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P., Guilderson, T., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T., Hogg, A., Hughen, K., Kaiser, K., Kromer, B., McCormac, F., Manning, S., Reimer, R., Richards, D., Southon, J., Talamo, S., Turney, C., van der Plicht, J., and Weyhenmeyer, C. IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0–50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 51, (2009). 1111–1150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rowan, D.J., Kalff, J., and Rasmussen, J.B. Estimating the mud deposition boundary depth in lake from wave theory. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 49, (1992). 2490–2497.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmieder, J., Fritz, S.C., Swinehart, J.B., Shinneman, A.L.C., Wolfe, A.P., Miller, G., Daniels, N., Jacobs, K.C., and Grimm, E.C. A regional-scale climate reconstruction of the last 4000 years from lakes in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA. Quaternary Science Reviews 30, (2011). 1797–1812.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schnellmann, M., Anselmetti, F.S., Giardini, D., McKenzie, J.A., and Ward, S.N. Prehistoric earthquake history revealed by lacustrine slump deposits. Geology 30, (2002). 1131–1134.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shin, S.-I., Sardeshmukh, P.D., Webb, R.S., Oglesby, R.J., and Barsugli, J.J. Understanding the mid-Holocene climate. Journal of Climate 19, (2006). 2801–2817.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shinker, J.J., Shuman, B.N., Minckley, T., and Henderson, A. Climatic shifts in the availability of contested waters: a long-term perspective from the headwaters of the North Platte River. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 100, (2010). 866–879.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shuman, B. Controls on loss-on-ignition variation in cores from two shallow lakes in the northeastern United States. Journal of Paleolimnology 30, (2003). 371–385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shuman, B. Recent Wyoming temperature trends, their drivers, and impacts in a 14,000-year context. Climatic Change 112, (2012). 429–447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shuman, B., Newby, P., Donnelly, J.P., Tarbox, A., Webb, T. III A record of late-Quaternary moisture-balance change and vegetation response from the White Mountains, New Hampshire. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 95, (2005). 237–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shuman, B., Pribyl, P., Minckley, T.A., and Shinker, J.J. Rapid hydrologic shifts and prolonged droughts in Rocky Mountain headwaters during the Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 37, (2010). L06701 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smoot, J.P., and Rosenbaum, J.G. Sedimentary constraints on late Quaternary lake-level fluctuations at Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho. Geological Society of America Special Papers 450, (2009). 263–290.Google Scholar
Steffensen, J.P., Andersen, K.K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel, J. et al. High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years. Science 321, (2008). 680–684.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Steinman, B.A., Rosenmeier, M.F., and Abbott, M.B. The isotopic and hydrologic response of small, closed-basin lakes to climate forcing from predictive models: Simulations of stochastic and mean-state precipitation variations. Limnology and Oceanography 56, (2010). 2246–2261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Street-Perrott, F.A., and Harrison, S.P. Lake Levels and Climate Reconstruction. Hecht, A.D. Paleoclimate analysis and modeling. (1985). J. Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York. 163–195.Google Scholar
Telford, R.J., and Birks, H.J.B. The secret assumption of transfer functions: problems with spatial autocorrelation in evaluation model performance. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, (2005). 2173–2179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, R.S., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Harrison, S.P., and Spaulding, W.G. Climatic Changes in the Western United States since 18,000 yr b.p. Wright, H.E., Kutzbach, J.E., Webb, T., Ruddiman, W.F., Street-Perrott, F.A., and Bartlein, P.J. Global climates since the last glacial maximum. (1993). University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis. 468–513.Google Scholar
Vassiljev, J., Harrison, S.P., and Guiot, J. Simulating the Holocene lake level record of Lake Bysjon, Southern Sweden. Quaternary Research 49, (1998). 62–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webb, R.S., Webb, T. III Rates of sediment accumulation in pollen cores from small lakes and mires of eastern North America. Quaternary Research 30, (1988). 284–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winkler, M.G., Swain, A.M., and Kutzbach, J.E. Middle Holocene dry period in the northern midwestern United States: lake levels and pollen stratigraphy. Quaternary Research 25, (1986). 235–250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winter, T.C. Relation of streams, lakes, and wetlands to groundwater flow systems. Hydrogeology Journal 7, (1999). 28–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Pribyl and Shuman supplementary material

Appendix

Download Pribyl and Shuman supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1.2 MB