Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-lj6df Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T19:06:16.576Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Ice Ages and Orbital Variations: Some Simple Theory and Modeling

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Stephen H. Schneider
Affiliation:
National Center for Atmospheric Research, * Boulder, Colorado 80307
Starley L. Thompson
Affiliation:
National Center for Atmospheric Research, * Boulder, Colorado 80307

Abstract

Possible physical mechanisms relating orbital-element variations (i.e., the “Milankovitch mechanism” of insolation regime changes) to Quaternary glacial/interglacial transitions are explored quantitatively. These include the seasonal cycle of albedo and the zonal distribution of thermal inertia. These mechanisms can interact with the perturbations to zonal average and seasonal average insolation caused by orbital-element variations to cause a global annual temperature residual, even though such variations can cause only a negligible change in global annual insolation.

Numerical model experiments with a zonal energy balance model show that the relative interactions between insolation regime changes and seasonally and latitudinally varying albedo and latitudinally varying thermal inertia are roughly of comparable magnitude. Encouraging agreements between model experiments and data are evident, but these (and others') simulations are still a long way away from providing a satisfying explanation of the physical processes that could fully explain the apparent connections between orbital-element variations and Quaternary glaciations.

It seems likely that no single physical process can be identified as predominate, and rather, the hypothesized physical connection between insolation regime changes and glacial/interglacial transitions will have to be built on the interactions of a number of processes on both short and long time scales.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1968. American Meteorological Society. Causes of climatic change. Meteorological Monographs. 8, No. 30.Google Scholar
Berger, A.L., (1977). Long-term variation of the earth's orbital elements. Celestial Mechanics. 15, 53-74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, A.L., (1978). Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from earth's orbital elements. Quaternary Research. 9, 139-167.Google Scholar
Bray, J.R., (1977). Pleistocene volcanism and glacial initiation. Science. 197, 251-254.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Budyko, M.I., (1969). The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth. Tellus. 21, 611-619.Google Scholar
Budyko, M.I., Vasischeva, M.A., (1971). The influence of astronomic factors on glacial epochs. Meteorology and Hydrology. 6, 37-47 (In Russian).Google Scholar
Carslaw, H.S., Jaegar, H.C., (1959) Conduction of Heat in Solids. Oxford Univ. Press, London/New York, 32.Google Scholar
Cess, R.D., (1976). Climatic change: An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 33, 1831-1843.Google Scholar
Cess, R.D., (1978). Biosphere-albedo feedback and climate modeling. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 35, 1765-1768.Google Scholar
1976. CLIMAPProject Members The surface of the ice-age earth. Science. 191, 1131-1137.Google Scholar
Ellis, J.S., Vonder Haar, T.H., (1976) Zonal Average Earth Radiation Budget Measurements from Satellites for Climate Studies. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Department of Atmospheric Science Paper 240.Google Scholar
Gal-Chen, T., Schneider, S.H., (1976). Energy balance climate modeling: Comparisons of radiative and dynamic feedback mechanisms. Tellus. 28, 108-121.Google Scholar
Hays, J.D., Imbrie, J., Shackleton, N.J., (1977). Variations in the earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages. Science. 194, 1121-1132.Google Scholar
Hollin, J.T., (1977). Thames interglacial sites, Ipswichian sea levels and Antarctic ice surges. Boreas. 6, 33-52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kominz, M.A., Pisias, N.G., (1979). Pleistocene climate: Deterministic or stochastic?. Science. 204, 171-173.Google Scholar
Kukla, G.J., (1975). Missing link between Milankovitch and climate. Nature (London). 253, 600-603.Google Scholar
Manabe, S., Hahn, D.G., (1977). Simulation of the tropical climate of an ice age. Journal of Geophysical Research. 82, 3889-3911.Google Scholar
Mason, B.J., (1976). Towards the understanding and prediction of climatic variations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 102, 473-498.Google Scholar
McCrea, W.H., (1975). Ice ages and the galaxy. Nature (London). 255, 607-609.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milankovitch, M.M., (1941) Canon of Insolation and the Ice-Age Problem. Royal Serbian Academy, Belgrade, Translated by the Israel Program for Scientific Translation, Jerusalem, 1969, and published for U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C..Google Scholar
North, G.R., (1975). Theory of energy-balance climate models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 32, 2033-2043.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pollard, D., (1978). An investigation of the astronomical theory of ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model. Nature (London). 272, 233-235.Google Scholar
Saltzman, B., (1978). A survey of statistical-dynamical models of the terrestrial climate. Advances in Geophysics. 20, 183-304.Google Scholar
Schneider, S.H., Dickinson, R.E., (1974). Climate modeling. Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics. 78, 447-493.Google Scholar
Schneider, S.H., Mass, C., (1975). Volcanic dust, sunspots, and temperature trends. Science. 190, 741-746.Google Scholar
Schneider, S.H., Mesirow, L.E., (1976) The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival. Plenum, New York. Google Scholar
Selby, S.M., (1974) Standard Mathematical Tables. CRC Press, Cleveland, Ohio, 454.Google Scholar
Sellers, W.D., (1969). A global climatic model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Journal of Applied Meteorology. 8, 392-400.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sergin, 247.R., Sergin, S.Ya., (1978) Systems Analysis of Problems of Large Climatic Fluctuations and Glaciations of the Earth. Hydrometeorological Series, Leningrad. (in Russian with English summary).Google Scholar
Shaw, D.M., Donn, W.L., (1968). Milankovitch radiation variations: A quantitative evaluation. Science. 162, 1270-1272.Google Scholar
Suarez, M.J., Held, I.M., (1976). Modeling climatic response to orbital parameter variations. Nature (London). 263, 46-47.Google Scholar
Suarez, M.J., Held, I.M., (1978). The sensitivity of an energy balance climate model to variations in the orbital parameters. Journal of Geophysical Research. in press.Google Scholar
Thompson, S.L., Schneider, S.H., (1979). A seasonal zonal energy balance climate model with an interactive lower layer. Journal of Geophysical Research. 84, 2401-2414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
1975. U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Understanding Climatic Change. Washington, D.C. .Google Scholar
1977. U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Energy and Climate. Washington, D.C. .Google Scholar
Weertman, J., (1964). Rate of growth or shrinkage of nonequilibrium ice sheets. Journal of Glaciology. 5, 145-158.Google Scholar
Weertman, J., (1976). Milankovitch solar radiation variations and ice age ice sheet sizes. Nature (London). 17-20.Google Scholar
Wilson, A.T., (1964). Origin of ice ages: An ice shelf theory for Pleistocene glaciation. Nature (London). 201, 147-149.Google Scholar
Wilson, A.T., (1966). Variation of insolation to the south polar region as a trigger which induces instability in the Antarctic ice sheet. Nature (London). 210, 477-478.Google Scholar